Thesis (MScEng)--University of Stellenbosch, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Air pollution is a major concern III the Cape Metropole. A major contributor to the air pollution problem is road transport. For this reason, a national vehicle emissions study is in progress with the aim of developing a national policy regarding motor vehicle emissions and control. Such a policy could bring about vehicle emission control and regulatory measures, which may have far-reaching social and economic effects. Air pollution models are important tools 10 predicting the effectiveness and the possible secondary effects of such policies. It is therefore essential that these models are fundamentally sound to maintain a high level of prediction accuracy. Complex air pollution models are available, but they require spatial, time-resolved information of emission sources and a vast amount of processing power. It is unlikely that South African cities will have the necessary spatial, time-resolved emission information in the near future. An alternative air pollution model is one that is based on the Gaussian Plume Model. This model, however, relies on gross simplifying assumptions that affect model accuracy. It is proposed that statistical and mathematical analysis techniques will be the most viable approach to modelling air pollution in the Cape Metropole. These techniques make it possible to establish statistical relationships between pollutant emissions, meteorological conditions and pollutant concentrations without gross simplifying assumptions or excessive information requirements. This study investigates two analysis techniques that fall into the aforementioned category, namely, Non-linear Time Series Analysis (specifically, the method of delay co-ordinates) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). During the past two decades, important progress has been made in the field of Non-linear Time Series Analysis. An entire "toolbox" of methods is available to assist in identifying non-linear determinism and to enable the construction of predictive models. It is argued that the dynamics that govern a pollution system are inherently non-linear due to the strong correlation with weather patterns and the complexity of the chemical reactions and physical transport of the pollutants. In addition to this, a statistical technique (the method of surrogate data) showed that a pollution data set, the oxides of Nitrogen (NOx), displayed a degree of non-linearity, albeit that there was a high degree of noise contamination. This suggested that a pollution data set will be amenable to non-linear analysis and, hence, Non-linear Time Series Analysis was applied to the data set. SSA, on the other hand, is a linear data analysis technique that decomposes the time series into statistically independent components. The basis functions, in terms of which the data is decomposed, are data-adaptive which makes it well suited to the analysis of non-linear systems exhibiting anharmonic oscillations. The statistically independent components, into which the data has been decomposed, have limited harmonic content. Consequently, these components are more amenable to prediction than the time series itself. The fact that SSA's ability has been proven in the analysis of short, noisy non-linear signals prompted the use of this technique. The aim of the study was to establish which of these two techniques is best suited to the modelling of air pollution data. To this end, a univariate model to predict NOx concentrations was constructed using each of the techniques. The prediction ability of the respective model was assumed indicative of the accuracy of the model. It was therefore used as the basis against which the two techniques were evaluated. The procedure used to construct the model and to quantify the model accuracy, for both the Non-linear Time Series Analysis model and the SSA model, was consistent so as to allow for unbiased comparison. In both cases, no noise reduction schemes were applied to the data prior to the construction of the model. The accuracy of a 48-hour step-ahead prediction scheme and a lOO-hour step-ahead prediction scheme was used to compare the two techniques. The accuracy of the SSA model was markedly superior to the Non-linear Time Series model. The paramount reason for the superior accuracy of the SSA model is its adept ability to analyse and cope with noisy data sets such as the NOx data set. This observation provides evidence to suggest that Singular Spectrum Analysis is better suited to the modelling of air pollution data. It should therefore be the analysis technique of choice when more advanced, multivariate modelling of air pollution data is carried out. It is recommended that noise reduction schemes, which decontaminate the data without destroying important higher order dynamics, should be researched. The application of an effective noise reduction scheme could lead to an improvement in model accuracy. In addition to this, the univariate SSA model should be extended to a more complex multivariate model that explicitly encompasses variables such as traffic flow and weather patterns. This will explicitly expose the inter-relationships between the variables and will enable sensitivity studies and the evaluation of a multitude of scenarios. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die hoë vlak van lugbesoedeling in die Kaapse Metropool is kommerwekkend. Voertuie is een van die hoofoorsake, en as gevolg hiervan word 'n landswye ondersoek na voertuigemissie tans onderneem sodat 'n nasionale beleid opgestel kan word ten opsigte van voertuigemissie beheer. Beheermaatreëls van so 'n aard kan verreikende sosiale en ekonomiese uitwerkings tot gevolg hê. Lugbesoedelingsmodelle is van uiterste belang in die voorspelling van die effektiwiteit van moontlike wetgewing. Daarom is dit noodsaaklik dat hierdie modelle akkuraat is om 'n hoë vlak van voorspellingsakkuraatheid te handhaaf. Komplekse modelle is beskikbaar, maar hulle verg tyd-ruimtelike opgeloste inligting van emmissiebronne en baie berekeningsvermoë. Dit is onwaarskynlik dat Suid-Afrika in die nabye toekoms hierdie tydruimtelike inligting van emissiebronne gaan hê. 'n Alternatiewe lugbesoedelingsmodel is dié wat gebaseer is op die "Guassian Plume". Hierdie model berus egter op oorvereenvoudigde veronderstellings wat die akkuraatheid van die model beïnvloed. Daar word voorgestel dat statistiese en wiskundige analises die mees lewensvatbare benadering tot die modellering van lugbesoedeling in die Kaapse Metropool sal wees. Hierdie tegnieke maak dit moontlik om 'n statistiese verwantskap tussen besoedelingsbronne, meteorologiese toestande en besoedeling konsentrasies te bepaal sonder oorvereenvoudigde veronderstellings of oormatige informasie vereistes. Hierdie studie ondersoek twee analise tegnieke wat in die bogenoemde kategorie val, naamlik, Nie-lineêre Tydreeks Analise en Enkelvoudige Spektrale Analise (ESA). Daar is in die afgelope twee dekades belangrike vooruitgang gemaak in die studieveld van Nie-lineêre Tydreeks Analise. 'n Volledige stel metodes is beskikbaar om nie-lineêriteit te identifiseer en voorspellingsmodelle op te stel. Dit word geredeneer dat die dinamika wat 'n besoedelingsisteem beheer nie-lineêr is as gevolg van die sterk verwantskap wat dit toon met weerpatrone asook die kompleksiteit van die chemiese reaksies en die fisiese verplasing van die besoedelingstowwe. Bykomend verskaf 'n statistiese tegniek (die metode van surrogaatdata) bewyse dat 'n lugbesoedelingsdatastel, die okside van Stikstof (NOx), melineêre gedrag toon, alhoewel daar 'n hoë geraasvlak is. Om hierdie rede is die besluit geneem om Nie-lineêre Tydreeks Analise aan te wend tot die datastel. ESA daarenteen, is 'n lineêre data analise tegniek. Dit vereenvoudig die tydreeks tot statistiese onafhanklike komponente. Die basisfunksies, in terme waarvan die data vereenvoudig is, is data-aanpasbaar en dit maak hierdie tegniek gepas vir die analise van nielineêre sisteme. Die statisties onafhanklike komponente het beperkte harmoniese inhoud, met die gevolg dat die komponente aansienlik makliker is om te voorspel as die tydreeks self. ESA se effektiwitiet is ook al bewys in die analise van kort, hoë-graas nie-lineêre seine. Om hierdie redes, is ESA toegepas op die lugbesoedelings data. Die doel van die ondersoek was om vas te stel watter een van die twee tegnieke meer gepas is om lugbesoedelings data te analiseer. Met hierdie doelwit in sig, is 'n enkelvariaat model opgestel om NOx konsentrasies te voorspel met die gebruik van elk van die tegnieke. Die voorspellingsvermoë van die betreklike model is veronderstelom as 'n maatstaf van die model se akkuraatheid te kan dien en dus is dit gebruik om die twee modelle te vergelyk. 'n Konsekwente prosedure is gevolg om beide die modelle te skep om sodoende invloedlose vergelyking te verseker. In albei gevalle was daar geen geraasverminderings-tegnieke toegepas op die data nie. Die akuraatheid van 'n 48-uur voorspellingsmodel en 'n 100-uur voorspellingsmodel was gebruik vir die vergelyking van die twee tegnieke. Daar is bepaal dat die akkuraatheid van die ESA model veel beter as die Nie-lineêre Tydsreeks Analise is. Die hoofrede vir die ESA se hoër akkuraatheid is die model se vermoë om data met hoë geraasvlakke te analiseer. Hierdie ondersoek verskaf oortuigende bewyse dat Enkelvoudige Spektrale Analiese beter gepas is om lugbesoedelingsdata te analiseer en gevolglik moet hierdie tegniek gebruik word as meer gevorderde, multivariaat analises uitgevoer word. Daar word aanbeveel dat geraasverminderings-tegnieke, wat die data kan suiwer sonder om belangrike hoë-orde dinamika uit te wis, ondersoek moet word. Hierdie toepassing van effektiewe geraasverminderings-tegniek sal tot 'n verbetering in model-akkuraatheid lei. Aanvullend hiertoe, moet die enkele ESA model uitgebrei word tot 'n meer komplekse multivariaat model wat veranderlikes soos verkeersvloei en weerpatrone insluit. Dit sal die verhoudings tussen veranderlikes ten toon stel en sal sensitiwiteit-analises en die evaluering van menigte scenarios moontlik maak.

Sze Sai-tim. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-82). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Acknowledgment --- p.i / Abstract (English) --- p.ii / Abstract (Chinese) --- p.iii / List of Figures --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.v / Chapter 1. --- INTRODUCTION / Chapter 1.1 --- Air pollution in Hong Kong --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Chemical speciation of carbon in air particulates --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Carbonaceous compounds in air and their harmful effects --- p.6 / Chapter 1.4 --- Review of analytical techniques for carbon determination --- p.14 / Chapter 1.5 --- Research objective --- p.18 / Chapter 1.6 --- Brief description of the project --- p.20 / Chapter 2. --- INSTRUMENTATION AND THEORY / Chapter 2.1 --- Thermal-optical-FID method --- p.21 / Chapter 2.2 --- Combustion-NDIR method --- p.27 / Chapter 2.3 --- Comparison between two methods --- p.28 / Chapter 2.4 --- Materials used for preparing standards --- p.30 / Chapter 2.5 --- Filter media for thermal analysis of carbon containing aerosols --- p.31 / Chapter 3. --- EXPERIMENTAL / Chapter 3.1 --- Instrumentation --- p.33 / Chapter 3.2 --- Apparatus --- p.33 / Chapter 3.3 --- Reagents --- p.35 / Chapter 3.4 --- Analysis time and operation temperature --- p.36 / Chapter 3.5 --- Procedures --- p.38 / Chapter 4. --- RESULTS AND DISCUSSION / Chapter 4.1 --- Particulate matter concentration in air --- p.43 / Chapter 4.2 --- Calibration --- p.43 / Chapter 4.3 --- Recovery study of total carbon in Standard Reference Material --- p.47 / Chapter 4.4 --- Study of filter deposit homogeneity --- p.50 / Chapter 4.5 --- Determination of total carbon in air particulates --- p.52 / Chapter 4.6 --- Further comparison of two methods by determination of total carbon in different sample type (river suspended solids) --- p.61 / Chapter 4.7 --- Repeatability of time of evolution and quantity of carbon determined by thermal optical-FID --- p.70 / Chapter 4.8 --- Reproducibility of measuring total carbon in PM2 5 and PM10 --- p.73 / Chapter 5. --- CONCLUSION --- p.75 / Chapter 6. --- REFERENCES --- p.77

Poon Lok-man. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 126-128). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vii / GLOSSARY --- p.viii / Chapter CHAPTER 1: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter CHAPTER 2: --- AIR POLLUTANTS AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING --- p.8 / Chapter CHAPTER 3: --- PRINCIPLE OF LEAD FINGERPRINTING --- p.15 / Chapter CHAPTER 4: --- INSTRUMENTATION AND THEORY --- p.20 / Chapter CHAPTER 5: --- OPTIMIZATION OF ANALYTICAL PERFORMANCE IN LEAD ISOTOPE ANALYSIS --- p.29 / Chapter CHAPTER 6: --- DETERMINATION OF LEAD CONTENTS AND ISOTOPIC RATIOS IN POTENTIAL AIRBORNE LEAD SOURCES --- p.55 / Chapter CHAPTER 7: --- DETERMINATION OF LEAD CONTENT IN PARTICULATES COLLECTED ONTO HV-FILTERS --- p.69 / Chapter CHAPTER 8: --- ENVIRONMENTAL SURVEY --- p.74 / Chapter CHAPTER 9: --- "CONCLUSIONS, LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER DIRECTION" --- p.97 / APPENDICES --- p.105 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.126

Ph.D. (Geography) / The focus of Aeolian research has mainly been on wind-blown dust from desert and arid areas. Numerous dust emission schemes have been developed over the years aimed at accurately estimating dust emission rates from various soil types and land use surfaces. Limited research has been done on wind-blown dust from smaller area sources – such as mine tailings and ash storage facilities. Lately, the concern about the environmental and health impacts, caused by dust from mine tailings storage facilities and ash disposal sites, has become more prominent, calling for better methods in determining dust emissions and their related impacts. This thesis established a practical approach for wind-blown dust emissions estimation and dispersion modelling from mine waste and ash storage facilities for the purpose of legal compliance assessment. Extensive research on the physics of wind erosion has been done over the past decade, compelling the re-evaluation of previously applied techniques. The latest and most widely applied dust emission schemes are evaluated to determine, through systematic testing of parameterisation and validation, using empirical mine waste and coal ash data, a best-practice prescription for quantifying wind-blown dust emissions and determining effects on a local scale using commercially available dispersion models. The applicability of two dust-flux schemes, (one developed by Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) and the simplified Shao 2004 scheme, as reported in 2011) for the quantification of wind-blown dust emissions, were tested using site specific particle size distribution data, bulk density and moisture content from six gold- and one platinum- tailings storage facilities and from two ash storage facilities. The availability of the required input parameters and the uncertainty associated with these parameters, were tested. The dependency of the Shao et al. (2011) model on plastic pressure (P) and the coefficient cy, both of which are not easily determined, added to the uncertainty of the emission rates. In this study, P and cy were both interpolated using the range limits provided by Shao (2004) for natural soils. By calculating P, using the salt and calcium carbonate content, similar values were obtained. The minimally disturbed dust fraction, as required by the Shao et al. (2011) scheme were derived from particle size distribution analysis but found to be more representative of the fully disturbed particle size faction (𝜂fi) and therefore needed to be corrected to represent the minimally disturbed particle size faction (𝜂mi) through the application of a correction factor, CF𝜂mi. Specific attention was given to the quantification of the threshold friction velocity (u*t) and the threshold velocities (u*), and how these two parameters relate to each under variable wind speed and time durations. This was tested using sub-hourly averaged meteorological data, one set reflected 5-minute intervals and the other 10-minute intervals. Dependent on the frequency and strength of the sub-hourly wind gusts, the resulting dust-flux rates were found to vary significantly when based on hourly averaged wind data in comparison with 5- and 10-minute wind data. Dispersion models are useful tools in air quality management. Whereas ambient monitoring provides actual ambient concentrations for specific pollutants at set locations, atmospheric dispersion models can be used to simulate any number of pollutants and determine the impacts at any location within the modelling domain. These dust-flux schemes of Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) and Shao et al. (2011) have been coupled with the US EPA regulatory Gaussian plume AERMOD dispersion model for the simulation of ground level concentrations resulting from wind-blown dust from mine tailings facilities. For this study, two Case Studies were evaluated; one included two of the gold mine tailings and the second focused on the platinum tailings. Simulated ambient near surface concentrations were validated with ambient monitored data for the same period as used in the model. For the Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) dust-flux scheme, only z0 had to be adjusted to provide a good fit with measured data – whereas the Shao et al. (2011) scheme resulted in significantly higher concentrations, resulting in an over-prediction of the measured data. By applying the correction factor, CF𝜂mi, to the minimally disturbed dust fraction, the predicted concentrations improved considerably. The coupling of the dust-flux schemes with a regulatory Gaussian plume model provided simulated ground level PM10 concentrations in good agreement with measured data. The best correlation was found under conditions of high wind speeds when the prevailing wind was from the direction of the tailings storage facility. This thesis demonstrates that simulated impacts from complex source groups can be performed, within an acceptable range of certainty, using widely applied dust-flux schemes. These dust-flux schemes, developed primarily for large-scale desert and arid areas, have been demonstrated to be applicable also to small-scale sources, of the order of 1 km2, and can be coupled to regularly available dispersion models for impact evaluations of wind-blown dust. The value of this improved approach to the mining and mineral processing industries are substantial, allowing for more accurate health risks and adverse environmental assessments from wind-blown dust from large material storage piles, a source category that has hitherto been difficult to quantify.

A graphical system was developed to represent airborne air quality monitoring data. The representations developed included three—dimensional spatial mapping, percentage and frequency distributions, and altitude—based scatter diagrams. Elementary statistical analyses and correlations of the measured parameters were also performed. Data gathered in eight flights to the Shenandoah National Park during the summer months of 1981 were analyzed. Sulfur dioxide levels were found to be in the 5 - 15 ppb range, nitrogen oxides were in the 4 — 10 ppb range, nitrous oxide was in the 2 - 5 ppb range, nitrogen dioxide was in the 2 - 5 ppb range, ozone was in the 35 - 70 ppb range and visual range was in the 5 — 90 mile range. The data representation system proved to be an easier and more useful method of displaying the data than the previously existing system. / Master of Science

No description available.