This study is an examination of how English courts have approached, or are likely to approach - and therefore, the effectiveness of - attempts by the parties to oil and gas contracts to allocate risks arising from the activities which form the subject matter of their respective contracts inter se. The study utilises petroleum industry standard form offshore drilling contracts in the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States of America as the context for this analysis, and examines the risks associated with drilling and other incidental operations, in the light of catastrophic events such as the Macondo disaster in the Gulf of Mexico and the Montara disaster in the Timor Sea. Drawing from the Economic Theory of Law espoused by Richard Posner, which correlates market behaviour, resource allocation and the legal system, and so conceptualises risk from a cost and utility perspective, the study will show that it is actually the economic consequences of the occurrence of an event that are being allocated, and that the entire notion of risk allocation is a determination of how the economic cost of the occurrence of the particular consequence will be borne by the parties to the contract. The study will conclude with a comparative analysis of risk allocation in the different model contracts, and an opinion on the success/effectiveness of the model contracts, as tools used by parties for risk allocation inter se, in response to the challenges created by legislative and judicial intervention. Justification for this opinion will be given, with reference to relevant case law and statutes in the different jurisdictions. Recommendations will be made on how the risk allocation structure can be improved, either by reference to other approaches the parties could adopt, or by clarifying ambiguities in the current approach (where applicable), and proposing a balance in the instances in which, from the study's perspective, the allocation formula is skewed, either due to the imbalance of power between the parties or by the interference of external forces such as the courts and legislature.

L’eau est vitale dans toutes les économies. C’est à cause de son rôle prépondérant pour la survie que les tensions politiques autour des basins et des fleuves internationaux tendent à être particulièrement très épineuses. Actuellement, la mauvaise répartition de cette ressource pose un sérieux problème du fait qu’elle est gérée en fonction de stratégies politiques et non en fonction des réalités hydrologiques régionales. Nous expliquons à l’aide de la « Enhanced Power Matrix Model » (La Matrice de FREY et NAFF améliorée) que les tensions autour des bassins et des fleuves au Moyen – Orient n’aboutiront pas à des conflits armés mais à une situation de non guerre et de non paix, très peu propice à la coopération. Pour sortir de cette situation de blocage, nous proposons aux décideurs politiques et aux négociateurs, sur base de l’article 6 de la Convention de New York de 1997 sur « les cours d’eau internationaux à d’autres usages que la navigation », un modèle de répartition de la ressource hydrique entre les différents riverains d’un cours d’eau international. Face à cette situation, beaucoup de pays de la région tentent de mettre de façon unilatérale des modèles de gestion macroéconomique : réduction de la demande ou l’augmentation de l’offre de l’eau. Ces modèles se heurtent à des obstacles de nature économique, politique, sociologique et culturelle. Dans un objectif de conception de nouveaux modèles de gestion de l’eau, nous proposons un modèle coopératif, les projets de transfert inter – bassin, pour faire face à la mauvaise répartition de cette ressource au Moyen – Orient. Nous appuyons sur la méthodologie multicritère d’aide à la décision pour opérationnaliser l’article 6 de la Convention de New York et pouvoir comparer les différents projets de transfert inter - bassin. Cette méthodologie fait appel à un logiciel d’aide à la décision « Décision Lab 2000 ». Le commentaire des résultats fournis par ce logiciel nous a permit de tirer l’enseignement suivant : seuls les projets qui présentent une faisabilité politique élevée arrivent en tête de classement. Ce qui nous fait dire que la question de l’eau au Moyen – Orient est, avant tout, une question politique.

‘Animal personality’ refers to individual behavioural differences that are consistent over time and context. Physiological constraints are suggested to underlie this constraint in behavioural plasticity. As energy is required for physiological processes that generate behaviour, energy metabolism could be a proximate explanation for personality. Currently, the most coherent framework linking behaviour, metabolism and life history-traits is still poorly tested empirically, and studies are showing contradicting results. Therefore, I here aim to explore this relationship further by investigating the relationship between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and personality in Red Junglefowl (Gallus gallus). Birds used had known responses in personality assays, and their metabolic rates were measured by determining oxygen consumption in standardized conditions throughout the night using an open respirometry system. BMR was negatively correlated with time spent foraging, and positively correlated with time spent being vigilant. Considering foraging an ‘activity’ (due to its energy-demand), my results support the allocation model, a model that assumes that an animal has a fixed amount of energy, thus that an energetic trade-off occur between competing energy requiring processes such as BMR and activity. Hence, an animal with low BMR has more energy to spend on activity. However, I do not consider vigilance as an energy-demanding activity; hence this relationship cannot be interpreted in this framework. Taken together, my results show a relationship between personality and BMR, although their relationship still needs further investigation to understand the causality and consequences of it.

This study provided the first direct test of the cognitive underpinnings of the attention-allocation model and attempted to replicate and extend past behavioral findings for this model as an explanation for alcohol-related aggression. Men were randomly assigned to a beverage (Alcohol, No-Alcohol Control) and a distraction (Moderate Distraction, No Distraction) condition. All men were provoked by a male confederate and completed a dot probe task and a laboratory aggression task without distraction or while presented with a moderate distraction task. Results indicated that intoxicated men whose attention was distracted displayed significantly lower levels of aggression bias and enacted significantly less physical aggression than intoxicated men whose attention was not distracted. However, aggression bias did not account for the lower levels of alcohol-related aggression in the distraction, relative to the no-distraction, condition. Discussion focused on how these data inform intervention programming for alcohol-related aggression.

While the concept of regional organization (regionalization) of perinatal care aimed at reducing perinatal mortality has remained at the agenda of developed countries since 1970&rsquo / s, Turkey is one of the countries that does not have such a system yet. In this study, a three-level hierarchical location-allocation model is developed for the regionalization of perinatal care in an attempt to have a better distribution of maternal and perinatal health care services in Turkey. Since the mathematical model developed is difficult to solve in a reasonable time, we propose three heuristic approaches: top-down, modified top-down and Lagrangean relaxation based heuristics. These heuristics are computationally tested on a set of problem instances for networks ranging from 10 to 737 vertices. A significant result is that Lagrangean relaxation based heuristic outperforms the other two heuristics in terms of solution quality. In most of the test problems, the modified top-down heuristic outperforms the top-down heuristic in terms of solution quality. Using the proposed approaches, we solve a real life problem corresponding to the Eastern and South Eastern Anatolian Regions (the East Region) of Turkey.

The primary aim of the present investigation was to directly examine a theoretically-based, ecologically-valid intervention and proposed mechanism for reducing at risk men’s alcohol-related aggression toward women for the bar setting. This study was developed in response to a critical need to address barriers to interventions for alcohol-related. This literature called for research to empirically investigate (a) specific intervention techniques that reduce aggression, (b) in whom such interventions will have the greatest impact, and (c) the mechanisms that account for such effects. Results of this study evidenced that the attention-allocation model-inspired intervention, relative to control, was associated with less alcohol-related physical aggression toward a female confederate. This finding held for men who reported lower, but not higher, levels of masculine gender role stress. However, results of the study did not support the hypotheses that intoxicated men who received the intervention, relative to control, would display the lowest levels of negative cognition and that masculine gender role stress would moderate this effect. Thus, the present study successfully addressed two of the three barriers cited. Discussion focused on how these data inform intervention programming for alcohol-related aggression.

We introduce a scenario based allocation model (SBAM) that uses entropy pooling for computing scenario probabilities. Compared to most other models that allow the investor to blend historical data with subjective views about the future, the SBAM does not require the investor to quantify a level of confidence in the subjective views.  A quantitative test is performed on a simulated systematic fund offered by the fund company Informed Portfolio Management in Stockholm, Sweden. The simulated fund under study consists of four individual systematic trading strategies and the test is simulated on a monthly basis during the years 1986-2010.  We study how the selection of views might affect the SBAM portfolios, creating three systematic views and combining them in different variations creating seven SBAM portfolios. We also compare how the size of sample data affects the results.   Furthermore, the SBAM is compared to more common allocation methods, namely an equally weighted portfolio and a portfolio optimization based only on historical data.  We find that the SBAM portfolios produced higher annual returns and information ratio than the equally weighted portfolio or the portfolio optimized only on historical data.

No description available.

With the current shift towards renewable energy sources, the demand for batteries is expected to follow an exponential increase in the future, and lithium-ion batteries will be the bulk of it. In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from battery production and to secure future availability of critical metals, more batteries will need to be recycled. To incentivize this, the European Union will impose regulations on recycling efficiencies as well as recycled content in produced batteries. The purpose of this study was twofold. Firstly, it was to construct a model in Microsoft Excel which could follow the flow of materials from recycling through production and keep track of an inventory which could be allocated to customers as needed. Moreover, the model had to be able to calculate values such as recycled content in produced battery cells and take into account losses from production etc. Secondly, this thesis aimed to use the model to determine how many old cells would have to be recycled in order to produce a modern cell with a certain percentage of recycled content, as well as to determine which recycled active cathode metals there might be surpluses and shortages of. This was done as a case study at the company Northvolt AB, by gathering data from literature, interviews, and site visits. The model was then built iteratively, based on a material flow analysis approach. Finally, the model was used in a methodical manner to test the conversion rates and to determine how big the shortages and surpluses of materials would be. This thesis argues that there is no truly relevant literature on building a material flow and allocation model such as the one required here. However, using the method described above, it was possible nonetheless to construct the novel model. The model consists of several sheets with distinct functions and is scalable while also adaptable to other companies and industries. Among other things, it keeps track of inventory levels with a scalable time axle and helps the user set values to reach target recycled weight percentages. The model can also be used to perform the analyses required for the second half of the purpose of this thesis. The key outcome from that, was that recycling old batteries and producing new ones is far from a 1:1 process and that higher requirements on recycling efficiencies could greatly improve that. Moreover, the active cathode metals which would require the largest amounts of batteries to be recycled in order to produce new cells with recycled content at certain levels, were identified as bottlenecks. When using the required recycling efficiencies from the European Union in 2025 and 2030, the bottleneck metals were lithium and nickel if the new batteries were to contain 100 % recycled active cathode metals. However, if the recycled content should be in line with European Union regulations, the bottlenecks would be cobalt and nickel instead. This could shift the demand for virgin active cathode metals in favor of cobalt and nickel. / Med dagens skifte till förnybara energikällor förväntas efterfrågan på batterier följa en exponentiell ökning i framtiden, och litiumjonbatterier kommer stå för merparten av den. För att minska koldioxidutsläppen från batteriproduktion och för att säkra framtida tillgång till kritiska material kommer fler batterier behöva återvinnas. För att ge incitament till detta, kommer Europeiska unionen införa regleringar på återvinningseffektiviteter och återvunnet innehåll i nya batterier. Syftet med denna studie var tvåfaldigt. Det första syftet var att bygga en modell i Microsoft Excel som kunde följa materialflöden från återvinning genom produktion och hålla kolla på ett lager som kunde allokeras till kunder efter behov. Dessutom behövde modellen kunna räkna ut värden såsom återvunnet innehåll i producerade battericeller samt ta hänsyn till förluster i produktion etc. Det andra syftet var att använda modellen till att bestämma hur många gamla celler som skulle behöva återvinnas för att producera en modern cell med vissa nivåer av återvunnet innehåll, såväl som att bestämma vilka återvunna aktiva katodmetaller det kan bli överskott och underskott av. Detta gjordes som en fallstudie på företaget Northvolt AB, genom att samla data från litteratur, intervjuer och studiebesök. Modellen byggdes sedan iterativt, baserat på en materialflödesanalys. Slutligen användes modellen på ett metodiskt sätt för att testa omvandlingseffektiviteter och bestämma hur stora underskotten och överskotten av material skulle bli. Denna avhandling menar att det inte finns någon riktigt relevant litteratur om att bygga en materialflödes- och allokeringsmodell som den som krävdes här. Med metoderna som beskrevs ovan var det dock möjligt att bygga modellen och bryta ny mark på vägen. Modellen består av flera ark med distinkta funktioner och är skalbar samtidigt som den kan anpassas till andra företag och industrier. Den håller bland annat reda på lagernivåer med en skalbar tidsaxel och hjälper användaren bestämma värden som behövs för att nå målen på återvunna viktprocent. Modellen kan också användas för att utföra de analyser som behövs för att uppfylla andra halvan av avhandlingens syfte. Huvudresultatet från det, är att återvinning av gamla batterier och produktion av nya är långt ifrån en 1:1 process och att högre krav på återvinningseffektiviteter skulle förbättra det markant. Vidare identifierades de aktiva katodmetallerna som skulle kräva de största mängderna återvunna batterier för att producera nya celler med vissa nivåer av återvunnet innehåll. De kallades flaskhalsar. Med Europeiska unionens krav på återvinningseffektiviteter för 2025 och 2030, var flaskhalsmetallerna litium och nickel om de nya batterierna skulle innehålla 100 % återvunna aktiva katodmetaller. Om det återvunna innehållet å andra sidan skulle vara i linje med Europeiska unionens regleringar, skulle flaskhalsarna vara kobolt och nickel istället. Detta skulle kunna skifta efterfrågan på nybrutna aktiva katodmetaller till fördel för kobolt och nickel.

The WikiLeaks Afghanistan war logs contain nearly 77,000 reports of incidents in the US-led Afghanistan war, covering the period from January 2004 to December 2009. The recent growth of data on complex social systems and the potential to derive stories from them has shifted the focus of journalistic and scientific attention increasingly toward data-driven journalism and computational social science. In this paper we advocate the usage of modern statistical methods for problems of data journalism and beyond, which may help journalistic and scientific work and lead to additional insight. Using the WikiLeaks Afghanistan war logs for illustration, we present an approach that builds intelligible statistical models for interpretable segments in the data, in this case to explore the fatality rates associated with different circumstances in the Afghanistan war. Our approach combines preprocessing by Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) with model trees. LDA is used to process the natural language information contained in each report summary by estimating latent topics and assigning each report to one of them. Together with other variables these topic assignments serve as splitting variables for finding segments in the data to which local statistical models for the reported number of fatalities are fitted. Segmentation and fitting is carried out with recursive partitioning of negative binomial distributions. We identify segments with different fatality rates that correspond to a small number of topics and other variables as well as their interactions. Furthermore, we carve out the similarities between segments and connect them to stories that have been covered in the media. This gives an unprecedented description of the war in Afghanistan and serves as an example of how data journalism, computational social science and other areas with interest in database data can benefit from modern statistical techniques. (authors' abstract)