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Qualitative analysis of sardine and anchovy oscillations and implications for the management of sardine and anchovy fisheries in OmanAl-Jufaili, Saud M. 12 June 2002 (has links)
Sardines and anchovies are small pelagic fishes that support important commercial
fisheries around the world. This project reviews the inverse cyclic behavior in the
abundance of these two stocks, which is a striking feature in many regions. In
addition, the project used qualitative loop analysis techniques to analyze the
feasible sardine-anchovy model configurations that result in the inverse relationship
between sardines and anchovies. A simple community model was examined that
considers fishing, sardine and anchovy biomass, and food resources for the sardines
and anchovies. First, the stability of these model configurations was investigated to
determine the conditions that should be met to stabilize the unstable configurations.
Second, the behavior of the feasible sardine-anchovy model configurations was
examined when fishing was removed from the models. Finally, model
configurations were identified that best represent the sardine-anchovy system in
terms of predicting qualitative changes in the system variables. These best models
define the crucial interactions between sardines and anchovies that require further
studies. Based on the results of the literature review and the loop analysis a set of
questions was developed and used in interviews with fishers in Oman to investigate
whether the sardines and anchovies in Oman are inversely related. Based on the
survey results and lessons learned from the literature review and loop analysis,
recommendations were developed for further research and management of the
fisheries in Oman for sardines and anchovies. In systems where the sardines and
anchovies vary inversely in abundance refuge areas for the sardines and anchovies
are very important for maintaining the two fish stocks and their cyclic behavior.
The results from the loop analysis suggested that interactions between sardines and
anchovies (e.g., competition and amensalism) are not important provided the two
fish populations can regulate themselves by means of their refuge areas. The
expansion and contraction of sardines and anchovies is a function of environment
suitability and long-term shifts in the environmental regime. The study found no
evidence that sardines and anchovies in Oman are inversely related. / Graduation date: 2003
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