<p>Society-induced changes to the environment are altering the effectiveness of existing management strategies for sustaining natural and agricultural ecosystem productivity. At the watershed scale, natural and agro-ecosystems represent complex spatiotemporal stochastic processes. In time, they respond to random rainfall events, evapotranspiration and other losses that are spatially variable because of heterogeneities in soil properties, root distributions, topography, and other factors. To quantify the environmental impact of anthropogenic activities, it is essential that we characterize the evolution of space and time patterns of ecosystem fluxes (e.g., energy, water, and nutrients). Such a characterization then provides a basis for assessing and managing future anthropogenic risks to the sustainability of ecosystem productivity.</p><p>To characterize the space and time evolution of watershed scale processes, this dissertation introduces a mean field approach to watershed hydrology. Mean field theory (also known as self-consistent field theory) is commonly used in statistical physics when modeling the space-time behavior of complex systems. The mean field theory approximates a complex multi-component system by considering a lumped (or average) effect of all individual components acting on a single component. Thus, the many body problem is reduced to a one body problem. For watershed hydrology, a mean field theory reduces the numerous point component effects to more tractable watershed averages resulting in a consistent method for linking the average watershed fluxes (evapotranspiration, runoff, etc.) to the local fluxes at each point.</p><p>The starting point for this work is a general point description of the soil moisture, rainfall, and runoff system. For this system, we find the joint PDF that describes the temporal variability of the soil water, rainfall, and runoff processes. Since this approach does not account for the spatial variability of runoff, we introduce a probabilistic storage (ProStor) framework for constructing a lumped (unit area) rainfall-runoff response from the spatial distribution of watershed storage. This framework provides a basis for unifying and extending common event-based hydrology models (e.g. Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method) with more modern semi-distributed models (e.g. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, the Probability Distributed (PDM) model, and TOPMODEL). In each case, we obtain simple equations for the fractions of the different source areas of runoff, the spatial variability of runoff and soil moisture, and the average runoff value (i.e., the so-called runoff curve). Finally, we link the temporal and spatial descriptions with a mean field approach for watershed hydrology. By applying this mean field approach, we upscale the point description with the spatial distribution of soil moisture and parameterize the numerous local interactions related to lateral fluxes of soil water in terms of its average. With this approach, we then derive PDFs that represent the space and time distribution of soil water and associated watershed fluxes such as evapotranspiration and runoff.</p> / Dissertation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / The understanding of processes such as the generation of surface runoff, sediment yield and their relations with the rainfall regime is the basis for the planning and effective management of soil and water resources in a watershed. In this context, the present study aims to identify the main processes that influence the generation of surface runoff and sediment yield in small watersheds, and determine parameters for empirical sedimentological models, as well as the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) for the tropical, semi-arid region of Brazil. The study area is the Iguatu Experimental Basin (IEB), which comprises a watershed of 16.74 km2, three small nested watersheds (from 1 to 3 ha) and three erosion plots of 20 m2. One of the watersheds had been under regenerating Caatinga for 35 years, another subjected to a management, which involved thinning the Caatinga, and the last faced deforestation followed by burning and the cultivation of grass. The period of study was six years (2009 to 2014). Collections to quantify surface runoff and sediment yield were taken for each erosive rainfall event in an accumulated period of 24 hours. Surface runoff in the watersheds was quantified using Parshall flumes, and sediment yield was measured with towers and trenches to collect suspended sediment and bedload. On the watershed scale, runoff was measured by means of a spillway, and sediment yield by a turbidimeter. Cluster analysis was used to determine rainfall regimes and groups of similar rainfall-runoff events. With data from the erosion plots and watersheds, the C factors and coefficients of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) were calibrated and validated. From data measured in the basin, sediment delivery ratios were determined. The occurrence of dry spells and the formation of cracks in the soil were important factors in controlling the generation of runoff and consequently sediment yield. The dry spells made it possible for the soil to dry out, with the formation of cracks, which acted as pathways for preferential flow, generating higher initial abstraction during the start of the rainy season. Changes in ground cover had little influence on accumulated flow, demonstrating that the soil characteristics and conditions as moisture and the presence of cracks, best explain the generation of runoff on expansive soils. The greatest runoff losses in all the watersheds under study were for Rainfall Regime II, characterized by higher depth, intensity and occurrence of the rainfall. For the ground covers under study, values for the C factors and the fit of the coefficients "a" and "b" of MUSLE, proved to be appropriate and recommended according to the statistical indices employed. Values for sediment delivery ratio for individual rainfall events ranged from 0.08 to 1.67%, with an average of 0.68%. In the basin, extreme events may cause high disaggregation of soil particles, but without sufficient transporting energy for dragging the sediment, generating low SDR. / O entendimento de processos como geraÃÃo do escoamento superficial, produÃÃo de sedimentos e suas relaÃÃes com o regime pluviomÃtrico à a base para o planejamento e a gestÃo eficaz dos recursos solo e Ãgua em uma bacia hidrogrÃfica. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo tem como objetivos identificar os principais processos que influenciam a geraÃÃo do escoamento superficial e a produÃÃo de sedimento em pequenas bacias hidrogrÃficas, e calibrar parÃmetros de modelos sedimentolÃgicos empÃricos, bem como a razÃo de aporte de sedimentos (SDR) para a regiÃo semiÃrida tropical do Brasil. A Ãrea de estudo à a Bacia Experimental de Iguatu (BEI), composta de uma bacia de 16,74 km2, trÃs pequenas microbacias aninhadas (de 1 a 3 ha) e trÃs parcelas de erosÃo de 20 m2. Uma das microbacias foi mantida com Caatinga em regeneraÃÃo hà 35 anos, outra submetida ao manejo de raleamento da Caatinga e na Ãltima foi realizado o desmatamento seguido de queimada e cultivo de capim. O perÃodo de estudo foi de seis anos (2009 a 2014). As coletas para quantificaÃÃo do escoamento superficial e da produÃÃo de sedimentos foram realizadas a cada evento de chuva erosiva, no acumulado de 24 horas. O escoamento superficial nas microbacias foi quantificado atravÃs de calhas Parshall e as produÃÃes de sedimentos foram mensuradas atravÃs de torres e fossos coletores de sedimentos em suspensÃo e arraste. Na bacia de 16,74 km2, o escoamento superficial foi mensurado por meio de um vertedor e a produÃÃo de sedimentos atravÃs de um turbidÃmetro. AnÃlises de agrupamento foram utilizadas para determinaÃÃo de regimes de chuvas e grupos de eventos similares de chuva-deflÃvio. Com dados das parcelas de erosÃo e das microbacias foram calibrados e validados os fatores C e os coeficientes da EquaÃÃo Universal de Perdas de Solo Modificada (MUSLE). A partir dos dados medidos na bacia foram determinadas as razÃes de aporte de sedimentos. A ocorrÃncia de veranicos e a formaÃÃo de fendas no solo foram determinantes no controle da geraÃÃo de escoamento e consequentemente da produÃÃo de sedimentos. A ocorrÃncia de veranicos possibilitou o secamento do solo com a formaÃÃo de fendas, que agem como caminhos preferenciais para o fluxo de Ãgua, gerando elevadas abstraÃÃes inicias durante o inÃcio da estaÃÃo chuvosa. As mudanÃas da cobertura vegetal apresentaram pouca influÃncia sobre o escoamento acumulado, indicando que as caracterÃsticas e condiÃÃes do solo, como umidade e presenÃa de fendas, explicam melhor a geraÃÃo de escoamento em solos expansivos. Maiores perdas por escoamento em todas as microbacias estudadas foram para chuvas do Regime II caracterizado por maiores alturas pluviomÃtricas, intensidades e ocorrÃncias. Quanto aos valores dos fatores C e dos coeficientes de ajuste âaâ e âbâ da MUSLE, para as coberturas estudadas, mostraram-se apropriados e recomendados de acordo com os Ãndices estatÃsticos empregados. Os valores da razÃo de aporte de sedimentos para eventos pluviomÃtricos individuais variaram de 0,08 a 1,67%, com mÃdia de 0,68%. Na bacia, eventos extremos podem causar elevada desagregaÃÃo de partÃculas de solo, mas podem nÃo dispor de energia de transporte suficiente para arrastÃ-las, gerando baixo SDR.

Submitted by Maike Costa (maiksebas@gmail.com) on 2016-01-05T12:43:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7469211 bytes, checksum: 99e23a5e3e827ec0fdf765d03f0f8601 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-05T12:43:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7469211 bytes, checksum: 99e23a5e3e827ec0fdf765d03f0f8601 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-27 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The assessment of rainfall-runoff transformation mechanisms with high temporal resolution data has proven crucial to the improving of hydrological studies, by providing detailed knowledge and information about the properties and the characteristics of their main variables. This study aimed at assessing the influence of rainfall event definition criteria in determining the characteristics of hyetographs, as well as in investigating the hydrological relations of rainfall events and antecedent soil moisture with those of the runoff hydrograph, by means of statistical techniques, in experimental basins in Northeast Brazil. To this end, a portion of the data was acquired, in sub-hourly scale, from the databases maintained by the partners of the research since 2003 and the other one was monitored and taken along the hydrological year of 2013-2014 through frequent measurements, performing essays and data processing. Then, descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, exploratory data analysis, multivariate statistical techniques and multiple linear regression were carried out either for visual inspection or for statistical data investigation, in order to establish variation patterns and evaluate the association degree among variables. The first study revealed that the variation in minimum inter-event time criteria has reduced by almost 50% the number of events, and underestimated the average intensity of events by 4 times on average. The second study showed that the tropical coastal basin has approximately 4 times more events than those of semiarid, of which 6% of all events that remain unshaped, contribute to 38% of the total precipitation, and could be reduced by up to 97%, becoming mainly on unimodal events with peak to the left. The third study showed that soil moisture has a similar variation pattern up to 3 days in advance and exerts a significant influence, along with the precipitation and duration of rainfall events on both the runoff coefficient, the peak and the discharge of hydrographs; on the other hand, the principal component responsible for the peak and intensities of hyetographs was significant only on the runoff coefficient, which was, in turn, the best feature set for the multiple linear regression analysis, as it the coefficient of determination was 0.66. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of continuous and systematic hydro-climatological data monitoring for the experimental studies that may provide input to decision-making in water resources management measures. / O entendimento dos mecanismos de transformação chuva-vazão com dados em alta resolução temporal mostra-se fundamental no aperfeiçoamento da maior parte dos estudos hidrológicos, ao provê conhecimento e informação detalhada a respeito das propriedades e características de suas principais variáveis. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a influência dos critérios de definição de evento chuvoso na determinação das características dos hietogramas, bem como investigar as relações hidrológicas dos eventos chuvosos e da umidade antecedente do solo com aquelas dos hidrogramas de escoamento superficial, por meio de técnicas estatísticas, em bacias experimentais do Nordeste Brasileiro. Para tanto, uma parcela dos dados foi adquirida, em escala sub-horária, dos bancos de dados mantidos pelos parceiros da Rede de Hidrologia do Semiárido (REHISA) desde 2003 e a outra foi monitorada e obtida ao longo do hidrológico 2013-2014, por meio de frequentes medições, realização de ensaios e tratamento de dados. Em seguida, técnicas de estatística descritiva, testes de aderência e de hipóteses, métodos exploratórios de dados, análises estatísticas multivariadas e técnicas de regressão linear múltipla foram utilizadas, quer na inspeção visual, quer na investigação estatística dos dados, a fim de estabelecer padrões de variação e avaliar o grau de associação entre variáveis. O primeiro estudo realizado revelou que a variação do critério de mínimo intervalo de tempo entre eventos fez reduzir em até quase 50% o número de eventos, além de subestimar a intensidade média dos eventos 4 vezes, em média. O segundo estudo mostrou que a bacia hidrográfica tropical costeira apresenta aproximadamente 4 vezes mais eventos do que as do semiárido, dos quais 6% da totalidade dos eventos que permanecem não caracterizados, contribuem para 38% do total precipitado, e puderam ser reduzidos em até 97%, transformando-se, sobretudo, em eventos do tipo unimodal com pico à esquerda. O terceiro estudo mostrou que a umidade do solo apresenta um padrão de variação similar até 3 dias de antecedência e exerce uma influência significante, juntamente com a lâmina precipitada e a duração dos eventos chuvosos, sobre o coeficiente de escoamento, o pico e a vazão do hidrograma; por outro lado, a componente responsável pelo pico e intensidades dos hietogramas foi significante apenas sobre o coeficiente de escoamento, este que, por sua vez, foi a característica melhor ajustada pela análise de regressão múltipla, dado o coeficiente de determinação de 0,66. Portanto, este estudo evidencia a importância do monitoramento contínuo e sistemático de dados hidroclimatológicos para a realização de estudos experimentais que venham a dar subsídios à tomada de decisões em medidas de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos.