Forecasting the potential range of invasive species is a critical component for risk assessment, monitoring, and management. However, many of these invasive species are not yet at equilibrium which can be problematic for many modelling approaches. Using the climate matching method, MaxEnt, a series of species distribution models (SDMs) and risk analysis maps were created for select apple snail species in Florida: Pomacea canaliculata, P. diffusa, and P. maculata. Apple snails, freshwater gastropods in the family Ampullariidae, are native to South America and were introduced to the United States via the pet trade approximately 40 years ago. These highly invasive species have already been introduced in ten states and established in at least seven. The models and risk analysis in this study show the majority of Florida was at least moderately suitable for all apple snails modeled, with P. maculata posing the greatest threat.

Canals surrounding the Everglades carry enriched and polluted water high in minerals and nutrients. These enriched waters impact adjacent marsh habitats, altering flora and fauna species and abundance. Multiple studies have found gradients in nutrient levels as a function of distance from canals and emphasize the sensitivity of some organisms to these changes in water chemistry. Florida apple snails, Pomacea paludosa Say, are just one of many Everglades species sensitive to changes in water chemistry. They serve as an important staple in the diets of many Everglades predators including turtles, crayfish, limpkins and most importantly the endangered snail kite, Rostrahamus sociabilis which feeds almost exclusively on the apple snail. To examine potential effects of water chemistry on apple snail breeding patterns, we observed snail egg size, egg number per clutch, and carbon and nitrogen contents along water chemistry gradients and among snail breeding months at the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge. Egg number per clutch and egg diameters were greatest in the most impacted zones and lowest in the pristine, interior zone. Carbon contents of eggs were highest in the interior and east side of the Refuge and lowest in the west side. Nitrogen contents of eggs were highest in the interior and west side of the Refuge, and lowest in the east side. Significant, albeit weak, positive trends were found between N content and egg diameter, C content and egg diameter, and between egg number per clutch and egg diameter, but only among specific zones and months. Results from this study suggest that snails in areas of the Refuge that are influenced by canal-water may produce greater numbers of apple snail offspring with greater egg diameters than those in less impacted areas. However, we do not know if this translates into higher hatchling success and survival.