We investigate the interdependence among three CEE stock markets and be- tween CEEs vis-à-vis euro area, using daily data from 2001-2011. Initially, we estimate bivariate ADCC models. Then, OLS regressions are employed to understand the evolution of correlations in time and during the recent financial crises. Finally, we examine the relationship between correlations and volatilities using the simple OLS model and the rolling stepwise regression methodology. Our results indicate that 3 out of 4 series exhibit asymmetries in conditional variances, while only 1 pair out of 6 exhibit asymmetries in correlations. We found that correlations are increased over time and during the recent financial crises for both pairs (CEEs-CEEs and CEEs-eurozone). However, the highest increase is observed for CEEs-eurozone. Mainly, we found a positive rela- tionship between correlations and volatilities, even though this relationship is niether constant in time nor strictly positive or negative during all the sample period, but rather time-varying with periods of being higher or lower than zero.

Doctor of Philosophy / The apparent increase in market concentration and vertical integration in the Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) industry has led to concerns about the presence of market power. For the Indonesian CPO industry, such concerns attract more attention because of the importance of this sector to the Indonesian economy. CPO is used as the main raw material for cooking oil (which is an essential commodity in Indonesia) and it contributes significantly to export earnings and employment. However, dominant producers argue that the increase in economies of scale and scope lead to an increase in the efficiency, which eventually will be beneficial for the end consumers and export earnings. This research seeks to examine whether the dominant producers do behave competitively and pass the efficiency gains to the end consumers, or they enhance inefficiency through market power instead. In order to identify the most suitable model to measure market power in the Indonesian CPO industry, different market power models are explored. These models can be divided into static and dynamic models. In general, all of them accept the price–cost margins as a measure of market power. However, static models fail to reveal the dynamic behaviour that determines market power; hence the dynamic models are likely to be more appropriate to modelling market power. Among these dynamic models, the adjustment model with a linear quadratic specification is considered to be a more appropriate model to measure market power in the Indonesian CPO industry. In the Indonesian CPO industry, producers can be divided into three groups, namely the public estates, private companies and smallholders. However, based on their ability to influence market price, smallholders are not considered as one of the dominant groups. By using the adjustment cost model, the market power of the dominant groups is estimated. The model is estimated using a Bayesian technique annual data spanning 1968–2003. The public estates and private companies are assumed to engage in a noncooperative game. They are assumed to use Markovian strategies, which permit firms to respond to changes in the state vector. In this case, the vector comprises the firms and their rivals’ previous action, implying that firms respond to changes in their rivals’ previous action. The key contribution of this thesis is the relaxation of the symmetry assumption in the estimation process. Although the existence of an asymmetric condition often complicates the estimation process, the different characteristics of the public estates and private companies lead to a need for relaxing such an assumption. In addition, the adjustment system—which can be seen as a type of reaction function—is not restricted to have downward slopes. Negative reaction functions are commonly assumed for a quantity setting game. However, the reverse may occur in particular circumstances. Without such restrictions, the analysis could reveal the type of interaction between the public estates and private companies. In addition, it provides insights into empirical examples of conditions that might lead to the positive reaction function. Furthermore, the analysis adds to the understanding of the impact of positive reaction functions to avoid the complicated estimation of the asymmetric case. As expected, the public estates act as the leader, while the private companies are the follower. Interestingly, results indicate that as well as the private companies, public estates do exert some degree of market power. Moreover, the public estates enjoy even higher market power than the private companies, as indicated by market power indices of -0.46 and -0.72, respectively. The exertion of market power by both the public estates and the private companies cast some doubts about the effectiveness of some current policies in the Indonesian CPO industry. With market power, the underlying assumption of a perfectly competitive market condition—that serves as the basis for the government interventions—is no longer applicable. Hence, many government interventions are unlikely to have the desired effect. The Indonesian competition law that has been imposed since 1999 might be effective in preventing firms to sign collusive contracts. In fact, even without such an agreement, firms in the CPO industry are likely to exert some degree of market power. As an alternative, eliminating the ‘sources’ of market power might be a better solution. If the public estates have the aim of maximising welfare, privatisation might improve their efficiency, hence they have ability to suppress the private companies’ market power. However, if in fact, the public estates deliberately reduce output to gain higher profit, privatisation might increase the degree of market power of both groups of companies even further. In such a condition, addressing the long term barriers of entry stemming from the requirement of high investment might be a better alternative to address the market power problem in the CPO industry.

Doctor of Philosophy / The apparent increase in market concentration and vertical integration in the Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) industry has led to concerns about the presence of market power. For the Indonesian CPO industry, such concerns attract more attention because of the importance of this sector to the Indonesian economy. CPO is used as the main raw material for cooking oil (which is an essential commodity in Indonesia) and it contributes significantly to export earnings and employment. However, dominant producers argue that the increase in economies of scale and scope lead to an increase in the efficiency, which eventually will be beneficial for the end consumers and export earnings. This research seeks to examine whether the dominant producers do behave competitively and pass the efficiency gains to the end consumers, or they enhance inefficiency through market power instead. In order to identify the most suitable model to measure market power in the Indonesian CPO industry, different market power models are explored. These models can be divided into static and dynamic models. In general, all of them accept the price–cost margins as a measure of market power. However, static models fail to reveal the dynamic behaviour that determines market power; hence the dynamic models are likely to be more appropriate to modelling market power. Among these dynamic models, the adjustment model with a linear quadratic specification is considered to be a more appropriate model to measure market power in the Indonesian CPO industry. In the Indonesian CPO industry, producers can be divided into three groups, namely the public estates, private companies and smallholders. However, based on their ability to influence market price, smallholders are not considered as one of the dominant groups. By using the adjustment cost model, the market power of the dominant groups is estimated. The model is estimated using a Bayesian technique annual data spanning 1968–2003. The public estates and private companies are assumed to engage in a noncooperative game. They are assumed to use Markovian strategies, which permit firms to respond to changes in the state vector. In this case, the vector comprises the firms and their rivals’ previous action, implying that firms respond to changes in their rivals’ previous action. The key contribution of this thesis is the relaxation of the symmetry assumption in the estimation process. Although the existence of an asymmetric condition often complicates the estimation process, the different characteristics of the public estates and private companies lead to a need for relaxing such an assumption. In addition, the adjustment system—which can be seen as a type of reaction function—is not restricted to have downward slopes. Negative reaction functions are commonly assumed for a quantity setting game. However, the reverse may occur in particular circumstances. Without such restrictions, the analysis could reveal the type of interaction between the public estates and private companies. In addition, it provides insights into empirical examples of conditions that might lead to the positive reaction function. Furthermore, the analysis adds to the understanding of the impact of positive reaction functions to avoid the complicated estimation of the asymmetric case. As expected, the public estates act as the leader, while the private companies are the follower. Interestingly, results indicate that as well as the private companies, public estates do exert some degree of market power. Moreover, the public estates enjoy even higher market power than the private companies, as indicated by market power indices of -0.46 and -0.72, respectively. The exertion of market power by both the public estates and the private companies cast some doubts about the effectiveness of some current policies in the Indonesian CPO industry. With market power, the underlying assumption of a perfectly competitive market condition—that serves as the basis for the government interventions—is no longer applicable. Hence, many government interventions are unlikely to have the desired effect. The Indonesian competition law that has been imposed since 1999 might be effective in preventing firms to sign collusive contracts. In fact, even without such an agreement, firms in the CPO industry are likely to exert some degree of market power. As an alternative, eliminating the ‘sources’ of market power might be a better solution. If the public estates have the aim of maximising welfare, privatisation might improve their efficiency, hence they have ability to suppress the private companies’ market power. However, if in fact, the public estates deliberately reduce output to gain higher profit, privatisation might increase the degree of market power of both groups of companies even further. In such a condition, addressing the long term barriers of entry stemming from the requirement of high investment might be a better alternative to address the market power problem in the CPO industry.

Made available in DSpace on 2008-05-13T13:17:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006-06-12 / This Thesis is the result of my Master Degree studies at the Graduate School of Economics, Getúlio Vargas Foundation, from January 2004 to August 2006. am indebted to my Thesis Advisor, Professor Luiz Renato Lima, who introduced me to the Econometrics' world. In this Thesis, we study time-varying quantile process and we develop two applications, which are presented here as Part and Part II. Each of these parts was transformed in paper. Both papers were submitted. Part shows that asymmetric persistence induces ARCH effects, but the LMARCH test has power against it. On the other hand, the test for asymmetric dynamics proposed by Koenker and Xiao (2004) has correct size under the presence of ARCH errors. These results suggest that the LM-ARCH and the Koenker-Xiao tests may be used in applied research as complementary tools. In the Part II, we compare four different Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodologies through Monte Cario experiments. Our results indicate that the method based on quantile regression with ARCH effect dominates other methods that require distributional assumption. In particular, we show that the non-robust method ologies have higher probability to predict VaRs with too many violations. We illustrate our findings with an empirical exercise in which we estimate VaR for returns of São Paulo stock exchange index, IBOVESPA, during periods of market turmoil. Our results indicate that the robust method based on quantile regression presents the least number of violations.