This research identifies large-scale synoptic controls that are relevant for rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic basin. Spatial statistical analysis techniques were performed on NASA MERRA data from 1979–2009. Rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) was performed, looking for common patterns in the datasets. The RPC’s were grouped using hierarchical clustering techniques, allowing for finding events similar in synoptic structure. The clustered events, representing the total RI and non-RI composites, were averaged yielding composite maps for different scenarios. To verify the results, a permutation test was done to show which variables are good distinguishers of RI and non-RI cases. These variables were used as input in two prediction schemes: logistic regression and support vector machine classification. The prediction scheme was a slight improvement in forecasting RI when using the synoptic variables mid-level vorticity, vertical velocity, low-level potential temperature and specific humidity, as the most significant in predicting RI.

This thesis research involves a reanalysis of the National Hurricane Center?s Atlantic Basin Hurricane Database (HURDAT) for 1916, 1918, 1927, 1928, and 1935. Newly available meteorological records from ship logs (COADS) along with recently discovered historical documents were used to reassess tropical cyclone location and intensity. Tropical cyclone track and intensity alterations are discussed in detail in a supporting metadata file. The overall results of the reanalysis process were minor alterations, with some major changes, to the track and intensity of tropical cyclones in HURDAT. Four tropical storms were added: one in 1918, one in 1927, and two in 1935. Three tropical storms were deleted: one in 1918 and two in 1916. However, the overall tropical activity remained nearly the same for the study period. This research is significant because it will strengthen our understanding of hurricane climatology and improve forecast models that utilize HURDAT.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-15T20:31:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MarlaMOS_DISSERT.pdf: 913535 bytes, checksum: 0f140ff1ea486331a7d67c825edfc1c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Because they are artificial ecosystems, reservoirs cause unforeseeable events on the water cycle, determining a continuous reorganization of communities, causing an evolution does not happen according to balanced patterns, compromising the productivity of the ecosystem. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the seasonal structure (rain and dry) and temporal (between years) of the fish assemblage of the Santa Cruz reservoir, Brazilian semiarid and verify that the rainfall and reservoir level factors influence the structure of fish assemblage. The samples were collected quarterly from February 2010 and November 2013 in eight points of the reservoir, with gillnets and mesh between 12 and 70mm, exposed by 12h00min in the water at night. The abundance of species, has been transformed into Catch per Unit Effort by numbers (CPUEn). A similarity matrix was constructed with data from CPUE, using similarity coefficient of Bray-Curtis, presented in graphics of non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (n-MDS) between rainy season (february and may) and dry (august and november) and for years. Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance (PERMANOVA) two-away was used to test statistical differences in the temporal structure of the fish assemblage. In the statistical difference between the years, the Similarity Percentage analysis in catches (SIMPER) was used to identify the species that contributed most to the similarity between the years. The fish assemblages of the reservoir was characterized using the following descriptors: i) species richness (S); ii) diversity index of Shannon-Wiener (H'); and iii) abundance (CPUE). Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to check whether there was a difference over the period studied between the values of S, H' and CPUE. Pearson correlation was made to verify the relationship between the S data, H' and CPUE with rainfall and reservoir level. All analyzes were performed using R version 3.1.2 soft. and a significance level of p<0.05. The 9,442 individuals were captured 3 orders, 11 families and 21 species, of which four belonged to introduced species. The order Characiformes was the most representative in number of captured families and individuals, the family Cichlidae was the most representative in number of species. The n-MDS ordination plot showed a separation of fish assemblages and the PERMANOVA indicated significant differences in the structure of assemblages between years and seasons (rain and dry), no significant interaction between factors. ANOVA indicated no differences in the data of richness (5.75 min. and 9.38 max.), diversity (1.47 min. and 2.30 max.) and CPUE (0.97 min. and 7.45 max.), however, the Pearson correlation showed a negative relationship between rainfall and reservoir level with the diversity index and positive relationship between reservoir level and CPUE. We conclude that the structure of the fish assemblage of the Santa Cruz reservoir varied seasonally and temporally and rainfall and reservoir level factors were important in structuring the assemblage / Por serem ecossistemas artificiais, os reservatórios ocasionam acontecimentos não previsíveis no ciclo da água, determinando uma reorganização contínua das comunidades, fazendo com que não aconteça uma evolução de acordo com padrões equilibrados, comprometendo a produtividade do ecossistema. Com isso, o objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar a estrutura sazonal (chuva e seca) e temporal (entre os anos) da assembléia de peixes do reservatório de Santa Cruz, semiárido brasileiro e verificar se os fatores pluviosidade e nível do reservatório influenciaram na estrutura da assembleia de peixes. As coletas ocorreram trimestralmente entre fevereiro de 2010 e novembro de 2013 em oito pontos do reservatório, com rede de espera e malhas entre 12 e 70mm, expostas por 12h00min na água no período noturno. A abundância das espécies, foi transformada em Captura Por Unidade de Esforço em número (CPUEn). Uma matriz de similaridade foi construída com os dados de CPUE, usando coeficiente de similaridade de Bray-Curtis, apresentados em gráficos de ordenação de escalonamento multidimensional não-métrico (n-MDS) entre período de chuva (fevereiro e maio) e seca (agosto e novembro) e por anos. Análise Permutacional Multivariada de Variância (PERMANOVA) two-away foi usada para testar diferença estatística na estrutura temporal da assembléia de peixes. Na diferença estatística entre os anos, a Análise de Porcentagem de Similaridade nas Capturas (SIMPER) foi utilizada para identificar as espécies que mais contribuiram para a similaridade entre os anos. A assembléia de peixes do reservatório foi caracterizada usando os seguintes descritores: i) riqueza de espécies (S); ii) índice de diversidade de Shannon-Wiener; e iii) abundância (CPUE). Análise de Variância (ANOVA) foi usada para verificar se existiu diferença ao longo do período estudado entre os valores de H , S e CPUE. Correlação de Pearson foi feita para verificar relação entre os dados de S, H e CPUE com a pluviosidade e o nível do reservatório. Todas as análises foram realizadas no soft R versão 3.1.2. e com nível de significância de p<0,05. Foram capturados 9.442 indivíduos de 3 ordens, 11 famílias e 21 espécies, sendo quatro espécies introduzidas. A ordem Characiformes foi a mais representativa em número de famílias e individuos capturados, a família Cichlidae foi a mais representativa em número de espécies. O gráfico de ordenação da n-MDS mostrou uma separação das assembléias de peixes e a PERMANOVA indicou diferenças significativas na estrutura das assembleias entre os anos e estações (chuva e seca), sem significância na interação entre os fatores. ANOVA não indicou diferenças nos dados de riqueza (5,75 mín. e 9,38 máx.), diversidade (1,47 mín. e 2,30 máx.) e CPUE (0,97 mín. e 7,45 máx.), no entanto, a correlação de Pearson mostrou relação negativa entre pluviosidade e nível do reservatório com o indice de diversidade e relação positiva entre nível do reservatório e CPUE. Concluímos que a estrutura da assembleia de peixes do reservatório de Santa Cruz variou sazonalmente e temporalmente e os fatores pluviosidade e nível do reservatório foram importantes na estruturação da assembleia