by Yeung Wai Lung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-122). / Text in English; abstracts in English and Chinese. / by Yeung Wai Lung. / Abstract --- p.i / Abstract (Chinese version) --- p.ii / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Contents --- p.iv / List of figures --- p.vii / List of tables --- p.xi / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- The El Nino ´ؤ Southern Oscillation Phenomenon --- p.3 / Chapter 2.1 --- Introduction to El Nino - Southern Oscillation --- p.3 / Chapter 2.2 --- The mean conditions of the Tropical Ocean --- p.4 / Chapter 2.3 --- Life Cycle of ENSO --- p.8 / Chapter 2.4 --- Understanding ENSO --- p.12 / Chapter 3 --- ENSO prediction schemes --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1 --- Introduction --- p.18 / Chapter 3.2 --- Statistical prediction models --- p.19 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Introduction --- p.19 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Atmospheric models --- p.19 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Oceanic models --- p.22 / Chapter 3.3 --- Coupled ocean-atmosphere models --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Introduction --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Intermediate coupled models --- p.25 / Chapter 3.3.3 --- Hybrid coupled models --- p.28 / Chapter 3.3.4 --- Coupled general circulation models --- p.30 / Chapter 3.4 --- Skill sensitivities --- p.36 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Introduction --- p.36 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Dependence of skill on season --- p.36 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Dependence of skill on decade --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.4 --- Dependence of skill on the Phase of the ENSO cycle --- p.38 / Chapter 4 --- The ENSO model --- p.40 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.40 / Chapter 4.2 --- Models formalism --- p.40 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Oceanic model --- p.40 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Atmospheric model --- p.43 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Coupling of atmospheric and oceanic models --- p.44 / Chapter 4.3 --- Numerical implementation --- p.45 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Oceanic model --- p.45 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Atmospheric model --- p.49 / Chapter 4.3.3 --- Averaging and interpolation during coupling --- p.52 / Chapter 4.4 --- Standard response of the model --- p.54 / Chapter 4.5 --- Limitation of the model --- p.57 / Chapter 5 --- Behavior of the ENSO model --- p.59 / Chapter 5.1 --- Introduction --- p.59 / Chapter 5.2 --- Numerical results of the model --- p.60 / Chapter 5.3 --- Effects of the parameters --- p.62 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Introduction --- p.62 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Coupling constant parameters --- p.62 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Rayleigh friction --- p.66 / Chapter 5.3.4 --- The oceanic Kelvin wave speed --- p.69 / Chapter 5.3.5 --- The ocean basin length --- p.69 / Chapter 5.3.6 --- Reflections at the western boundary --- p.74 / Chapter 5.4 --- Modification of the model background state --- p.76 / Chapter 5.4.1 --- Introduction --- p.76 / Chapter 5.4.2 --- The results of the modified model --- p.77 / Chapter 5.4.3 --- Sensitivity of the western boundary of the modified model --- p.81 / Chapter 5.4.4 --- Parameters sensitivities of the modified model --- p.83 / Chapter 5.5 --- Conclusion and discussion --- p.87 / Appendix A --- p.91 / Appendix B --- p.112 / Bibliography --- p.120