The  Austrian  Business  Cycle  Theory  (ABC)  provides  a  qualitative  explanation  of  why economies go through ups and downs in terms of national income, production output and labor employment. The theory states that interest and money supply policy distort the time preferences of economic agents. If the monetary authority reduces the interest rate through artificial credit expansion the new economic conditions induce both increased production and consumption. The  framework of  the Austrian  theory depends on  savings  to  fuel  investments, i.e. reduced consumption in order to create increased future consumption. Artificially  induced  expansions  create  a wedge between  these producer  and  consumer preferences, and prolonging of the process widens the gap between the economic state and the free market  equilibrium which  is  long-term  sustainable. When  the  financial  system  eventually is unable to maintain inflation of credit to uphold the economy, there will be abandonment of capital investments, resulting in an unavoidable recession. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the theory from a short run perspective, using data from  the United Kingdom  economy. The  theory has previously primarily been  tested  in long run perspectives and mainly on the American economy. To achieve the noted a model was constructed based on the description of the theory by economists Hayek and Garrison, members of the Austrian school of economics. To empirically model the ABC theory the ratio between consumption and investment, the intertemporal  resource allocation, was  calculated and used as a dependent variable  in  regressions with money aggregates, credit and interest rate gap as independent variables. The empirical findings give some support to the theory, with a number of those findings directly in favor of the theory. Credit was shown to better explain changes in the C/I ratio than money aggregates, indicating that credit is more directly suited for investments. The coefficient for the interest rate gap, the difference between the natural interest rate and the market interest rate, showed strong significance. Overall differences between economic expansions and recessions were found statistically significant, which lends support to the model.

<p>The  Austrian  Business  Cycle  Theory  (ABC)  provides  a  qualitative  explanation  of  why economies go through ups and downs in terms of national income, production output and labor employment. The theory states that interest and money supply policy distort the time preferences of economic agents. If the monetary authority reduces the interest rate through artificial credit expansion the new economic conditions induce both increased production and consumption. The  framework of  the Austrian  theory depends on  savings  to  fuel  investments, i.e. reduced consumption in order to create increased future consumption. Artificially  induced  expansions  create  a wedge between  these producer  and  consumer preferences, and prolonging of the process widens the gap between the economic state and the free market  equilibrium which  is  long-term  sustainable. When  the  financial  system  eventually is unable to maintain inflation of credit to uphold the economy, there will be abandonment of capital investments, resulting in an unavoidable recession. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the theory from a short run perspective, using data from  the United Kingdom  economy. The  theory has previously primarily been  tested  in long run perspectives and mainly on the American economy. To achieve the noted a model was constructed based on the description of the theory by economists Hayek and Garrison, members of the Austrian school of economics. To empirically model the ABC theory the ratio between consumption and investment, the intertemporal  resource allocation, was  calculated and used as a dependent variable  in  regressions with money aggregates, credit and interest rate gap as independent variables. The empirical findings give some support to the theory, with a number of those findings directly in favor of the theory. Credit was shown to better explain changes in the C/I ratio than money aggregates, indicating that credit is more directly suited for investments. The coefficient for the interest rate gap, the difference between the natural interest rate and the market interest rate, showed strong significance. Overall differences between economic expansions and recessions were found statistically significant, which lends support to the model.</p>

The master's thesis critically analyses the works of John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich August von Hayek concering the explanation of business cycles based on monetary determinants. The analysis is primarily based on J. M. Keynes's Treatise on Money (1930) and Prices and Production (1935) author of which is F. A. Hayek. The thesis, on one hand, refutes the main explanation of the cause of business cycles of the Austrian business cycle theory and, on the other hand, it argues the imcompatibility of the main analytical tool of Treatise with the theory of innovation by J. A. Schumpeter.

Higher education is often considered as one of the safest and most profitable investments in human capital. There are, however, signals that this sector has been experiencing unsustainable economic boom in the United States. This study examines the ability of Austrian Business Cycle Theory to explain the possibility of such boom, i.e. to explain the potential systematic errors in the allocation of human capital. We find that respective allocation is driven by the similar market forces as the allocation of physical capital and hence, that it may fall victim to the same, or similar false market signals, thus creating the cycle of boom and bust. Credit expansion in the sector of student loans can be the trigger then. Furthermore, we study the actual development in this sector and find that empirical evidence provides many reasons to believe that there has actually been unsustainable boom i.e. an economic bubble in the sector of post-secondary education in the United States.

This paper examines the correlation between credit intermediated by financial systems and economic growth in developing countries. More specifically we have studied whether well-functioning financial markets result in economic growth. We base our study on data from 53 low- and lower-middle income countries in the period 2004-2011. By comparing the two different economic theories, Schumpeter’s growth theory and Austrian business cycle theory, we have analysed our results from two different perspectives. The results from this study show an insignificant relationship between financial systems and economic growth, contradicting much of the theory and results from previous studies that have been reviewed. Other variables outside of the financial system in this study, such as economic freedom and corruption, could be a reason for the non-existent correlation between financial development and economic growth in this study.

The thesis is dedicated to clarifying the origins and main causes of the economic crisis. In the first part I ilustrate the connection between the monetary policies of central banks and the changes in structure of the production and investments with the help of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. These theoretical assumptions are confronted with the empirical findings from USA throughout the 20th century. The second part discusses other factors leading to the crises, mainly focusing on the 2009 economic crises and various free market and state controlled factors. The thesis discusses these factors from the point of view of theoretical and empirical knowledge of economic science.

This dissertation presents the results of research focused on the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). The main part of the thesis is an econometrical test of five predictions based on ABCT. I used data on the US economy for period 1967 - 2016, which is the longest time period covered in the Austrian empirical literature so far. Since one of the most important variables for ABCT is so called interest rate gap (the difference between market interest rate and natural interest rate), I use three alternative models of this variable. The results of my empirical tests predominantly confirm theoretical predictions of ABCT. It can be shown that the interest rate gap influenced the relative structure of economic activity and resource allocation in a way predicted by ABCT. I also investigate whether the interest rate gap does have a significant impact on stock market valuations (in terms of aggregate level or relative structure), although the results are mostly statistically insignificant. In addition I also described several possible new distortions which may emerge due to unconventional monetary policy. I argue that these distortions should be of primary interest for researchers engaged in the Austrian research program. I devoted special attention to the specifics of monetary policy regime in Japan, where the Bank of Japan regularly intervenes on the stock market. Another theoretical contribution can be found in the second chapter where I respond to the White's (1999) claim that Hayek implicitly repudiated his own version of ABCT in later part of his career, when proposing free competition in money production. I attempt to show that White's conclusion stems from an inadequate interpretation of Hayek's writings. Finally I provide an alternative interpretation of Hayek's work that reveals the compatibility of his early and late theoretical contributions.

Today’s household debt consists for the most part of credit money, and this general phenomenon does not only occur in Sweden. Money in the economy is mostly created by private banks, as much as 97 percent of the money in the United States, while central banks only create a very small share of all money. This is the reason for the oppressed household debt. During this period of high debt in Sweden, the household consumption has also increased in comparison to earlier years. The aim is to study and compare how the money supply in two different full-reserve systems, the Austrian through convertibility and the Chicago plan through quantity control, would reduce the household debt in relation to today’s fractional system. The method used in this study is a time series analysis where data of Sweden’s household debt, savings, money supply; M1 and M3, GDP, assets, currency reserves, gold reserves and interest rates has been collected for the years 2005-2013. These are further examined in three different equations. The data for all the variables was collected from SCB, IMF, Ekonomifakta and the World Data Bank. The first theory that is used in this study is Wicksell’s cumulative process which will explain how the money supply M3 affects household debt in today's fractional reserve system. The second theory is the Austrian Business Cycle Theory which will examine the money supply M1 effect on household debt through full reserves by convertibility control. The third theory is the Friedman rule, where the effect of household debt by money supply M1 will be examined. This rule explains how the Chicago Plan is affecting household debt through a full reserve system by quantity control. In the both systems, fractional reserves and full reserves, the debt will increase in this study. The result shows that with full reserves, the household debt would be backed by savings in comparison to fractional reserves, where household debt would be backed by credit money. Therefore, full reserves would contribute to a healthier economy in contrast to today’s fractional system. Since it would involve a large cost for Sweden to transcend to an Austrian system through convertibility, where price inertia would occur as well, the conclusion of this study is that the Chicago Plan, based on the quantity principle, is to prefer. / Största delen av hushållens skuldsättning består idag av kreditpengar, och detta generella fenomen finns inte bara i Sverige. Pengarna i ekonomin är för det mesta skapade av affärsbankerna, så mycket som 97 procent i USA, medan centralbanken endast skapar en liten del av dessa pengar. Detta är anledningen till de höga hushållsskulderna. Under den här perioden av hög skuldsättning i Sverige så har även hushållens konsumtion ökat i förhållande till tidigare år. Syftet med denna studie är att jämföra hur penningmängden i två olika hundraprocentiga reservsystem, den österrikiska konjunkturcykeln, genom konvertibilitet, och Chicago planen, genom kvantitetskontroll, skulle reducera hushållens skulder i relation till dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Metoden som används i denna studie är en tidsserieanalys där data från hushållens skulder, sparande, penningmängd; M1 och M3, BNP, tillgångar, guldreserver, valutareserver och repo räntan har samlats in under åren 2005-2013. Dessa variabler är studerade i tre olika ekvationer och all data har samlats in från SCB; IMF, Ekonomifakta och the World Data Bank. Den första teorin som används är Wicksells kumulativa process som beskriver hur penningmängden M3 påverkar hushållens skulder i dagens bråkdelsreservsystem. Den andra teorin är den österrikiska konjunkturcykel teorin och kommer att undersöka penningmängden M1 effekt på hushållens skulder med ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med konvertibilitetskontroll. Den tredje teorin är Friedmans regel, där effekten på hushållens skulder kommer att bli undersökt med hjälp av penningmängden M1. Denna regel förklarar hur Chicagoplanen påverkar hushållens skulder via ett hundraprocentigt reservsystem med kvantitetskontroll. Hushållens skuldsättning ökade i samtliga regressioner och resultaten visar att med hundraprocentiga reserver så skulle hushållens skulder vara backade med sparande, jämfört med bråkdelsreserver, där hushållens skulder skulle vara backade med krediter. Därför skulle hundraprocentiga reserver bidra till en mer välmående ekonomi. Eftersom det skulle tillkomma höga kostnader att övergå till ett österrikiskt system med konvertibilitet, så är slutsatsen av denna studie att istället implementera Chicagoplanen baserad på kvantitetsprincipen.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to empirically investigate the explanatory power of Austrian business cycle theory. My dataset consists of US quarterly time series within the period between 1971 and 2009. As regards the NBER classification, this dataset covers six complete business cycles, including the recent global financial crisis. Following Wainhouse (1984), Keeler (2001) and Bjerkenes et al. (2010) I use Granger causality as one of the primary tools of the analysis. Moreover I also add Impulse response functions to discover the direction of observed relationships. As regards my primary group of hypotheses I found significant empirical evidence for the connection between changes in interest rate and structure of production. The secondary group of hypotheses is less successful; however I found the very first empirical illustration of Garrison's version of ABCT.

The study of economic crises has been a major topic of interest in economics since at least the Great Depression and it has come to the fore once again after the latest crisis of late 2000s. It has also been one of the key themes for the Austrian school of economics in the form of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), which puts emphasis on monetary factors influencing capital structure of the economy. In this thesis we provide a comprehensive exposition of the distinctive points of Austrian approach to the study of markets, the ABCT's propositions and conclusions and also the most important criticism of the theory and replies to it. The theoretical part is accompanied by an empirical illustration on the economy of the United States of America in the period starting at the end of the latest crisis. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)