Several sophisticated techniques to study in vivo GI transit and regional absorption of pharmaceuticals are available and increasingly used. Examples of such methods are Magnetic Marker Monitoring (MMM) and local drug administration with remotely operated capsules. Another approach is the paracetamol and sulfapyridine double marker method which utilizes observed plasma concentrations of the two substances as markers for GI transit. Common for all of these methods is that they generate multiple types of observations e.g. tablet GI position, drug release and plasma concentrations of one or more substances. This thesis is based on the hypothesis that application of mechanistic nonlinear mixed-effect models could facilitate a better understanding of the interrelationship between such variables and result improved predictions of the processes involved in oral absorption. Mechanistic modeling approaches have been developed for application to data from MMM studies, paracetamol and sulfapyridine double marker studies and for linking in vitro and in vivo drug release. Models for integrating information about tablet GI transit, in vivo drug release and drug plasma concentrations measured in MMM studies was outlined and utilized to describe drug release and absorption properties along the GI tract for felodipine and the investigational drug AZD0837. A mechanistic link between in vitro and in vivo drug release was established by estimation of the mechanical stress in different regions of the GI tract in a unit equivalent to rotation speed in the in vitro experimental setup. The effect of atropine and erythromycin on gastric emptying and small intestinal transit was characterized with a semi-mechanistic model applied to double marker studies in fed and fasting dogs. The work with modeling of in vivo drug absorption has highlighted the need for, and led to, further development of mixed-effect modeling methodology with respect to model diagnostics and the handling of censored observations.

General attrition rates in drug development pipeline have been recognized as a necessity to shift gears towards new methodologies that allow earlier and correct decisions, and the optimal use of all information accrued throughout the process. The quantitative science of pharmacometrics using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models was identified as one of the strategies core to this renaissance. Coupled with Optimal Design (OD), they constitute together an attractive toolkit to usher more rapidly and successfully new agents to marketing approval. The general aim of this thesis was to investigate how the use of novel pharmacometric methodologies can improve the design and analysis of clinical trials within drug development. The implementation of a Monte-Carlo Mapped power method permitted to rapidly generate multiple hypotheses and to adequately compute the corresponding sample size within 1% of the time usually necessary in more traditional model-based power assessment. Allowing statistical inference across all data available and the integration of mechanistic interpretation of the models, the performance of this new methodology in proof-of-concept and dose-finding trials highlighted the possibility to reduce drastically the number of healthy volunteers and patients exposed to experimental drugs. This thesis furthermore addressed the benefits of OD in planning trials with bio analytical limits and toxicity constraints, through the development of novel optimality criteria that foremost pinpoint information and safety aspects. The use of these methodologies showed better estimation properties and robustness for the ensuing data analysis and reduced the number of patients exposed to severe toxicity by 7-fold.  Finally, predictive tools for maximum tolerated dose selection in Phase I oncology trials were explored for a combination therapy characterized by main dose-limiting hematological toxicity. In this example, Bayesian and model-based approaches provided the incentive to a paradigm change away from the traditional rule-based “3+3” design algorithm. Throughout this thesis several examples have shown the possibility of streamlining clinical trials with more model-based design and analysis supports. Ultimately, efficient use of the data can elevate the probability of a successful trial and increase paramount ethical conduct.