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Field Investigations and Numerical Modeling of Earthquake and Tsunami Risk at Four Vulnerable Sites in IndonesiaAshcraft, Claire E. 10 December 2021 (has links)
Maps and models of seismic and tsunami risk are constructed from a variety of measurements taken in Indonesia, which have the potential to reduce loss of life and infrastructure. The first study uses the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method to calculate the time-averaged shear wave velocity to 30 m depth (Vs30). These measurements were taken at 58 sites in the city of Pacitan, Java and on the islands of Lombok, Ambon, and the Banda Islands. Vs30 calculations are compared with local geologic maps to extrapolate site class for locations not measured directly. Site class maps are then compared with Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) observations for three earthquake events that impacted Lombok and Ambon to identify regions where the MMI and Vs30 do and do not corroborate one another. Consistent with other Vs30 studies, the lowest values are observed on coastal alluvial plains and the highest values on steeper hillsides underlain by volcanic deposits. The second study focuses on a potential sector collapse of the volcano Banda Api within the Banda Islands. A field survey of its summit identified a steeply dipping normal fault striking NNE-SSW. This, along with the fissure geometry of the volcano's most recent eruption, reveals a failure plane along which a future sector collapse could occur. The numerical model Tsunami Squares (TS) predicts that the tsunami produced by this landslide would inundate an estimated 63% of buildings on the Banda Islands with waves as high as 82 m. These findings highlight the importance of installing a GPS receiver array on Banda Api to monitor the motion of its slopes. The third study analyzes sediment from trenches on the Banda Islands and Ambon to test if historical tsunamis that have impacted the area are preserved in the geological record. Potential tsunami deposits were identified by the presence of marine sand and larger clasts of marine carbonate in an environment which otherwise lacks large storms to bring such material onshore. Several dating methods constrain the ages of at least seven candidate tsunami deposits found in trenches onshore. One of these historical tsunamis (the event of November 26, 1852) is described in significant detail from several locations across the Banda Sea, which enables modeling of the event using a Bayesian statistical approach. The posterior of this model predicts the most likely epicenter was SW of Seram with a mean magnitude of Mw 8.8. It also makes other predictions about fault parameters. The region exhibits a marked slip deficit based on instrumental records of earthquakes in the area.
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Tectonics of Saturn's Moon Titan AND Tsunami Modeling of the 1629 Mega-thrust Earthquake in Eastern IndonesiaLiu, Yung-Chun 01 July 2014 (has links) (PDF)
Chapter 1-2:The Cassini RADAR mapper has imaged elevated blocks and mountains on Titan we term ‘ridges’. Two unresolved problems regarding Titan's surface are still debated: what is the origin of its ridges and was there tectonic activity on Titan? To understand the processes that produced the ridges, in this study, (1) we analyze the distribution and orientation of ridges through systematic geomorphologic mapping and (2) we compare the location of the ridges to a new global topographic map to explore the correlation between elevation and ridges and the implications for Titan's surface evolution. Globally, the orientation of ridges is nearly E-W and the ridges are more common near the equator than at the poles, which suggests a tectonic origin for most of the ridges on Titan. In addition, the ridges are found to preferentially lie at higher-than-average elevations near the equator. We conclude the most reasonable formation scenario for Titan's ridges is that contractional tectonism built the ridges and thickened the icy lithosphere, causing regional uplift. The combination of global and regional tectonic events, likely contractional in nature, plus enhanced fluvial erosion and sedimentation near the poles, would have contributed to shaping Titan's tectonic landforms and surface morphology to what we see today. However, contractional structures (i.e. thrusts and folds) require large stresses (8~10 MPa), the sources of which probably do not exist on Titan. Liquid hydrocarbons in Titan's near subsurface must play a role similar to that of water on Earth and lead to fluid overpressures, which enable contractional deformation at smaller stresses (< 1MPa) by significantly reducing the shear strength of materials. We show that crustal conditions with enhanced pore fluid pressures on Titan favor the formation of thrust faults and related folds, in a contractional stress field. The production of folds, as on Earth, is facilitated by the presence of crustal liquids to weaken the crust. These hydrocarbon fluids have played a key role in Titan's tectonic evolutionary history, leaving it the only icy body on which strong evidence for contractional tectonism exists. Chapter 3: Arthur Wichmann's ‘Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago’ documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda islands on 1 August 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-meter tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only linear numerical models are applied due to the low-resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5 to 4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15 m tsunami are Mw of 9.8 to 9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and Mw 8.8 to 8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 minutes for Tanimbar Trough and 30 minutes for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5 meters run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough Source.We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake > Mw 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50-80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.
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