Cette thèse propose une analyse détaillée des effets de la supervision prudentielle (une composante de la réglementation bancaire) sur la stabilité du secteur bancaire, la solvabilité des institutions financières et, au niveau macro-économique, étudie son impact sur le crédit domestique. La méthodologie de recherche adoptée permet l‘intégration de l‘hétérogénéité dans l'analyse, tant au niveau systémique qu'à celui de l‘agent individuel. Des méthodes d‘estimation bayésiennes sont à la base de la partie empirique, alors que les sections théoriques utilisent la modélisation multi-agent. Le premier chapitre étudie les effets de la supervision prudentielle sur le crédit domestique dans 27 pays de l‘UE. Les résultats montrent qu‘une aggravation de la dureté de la supervision produit des effets positifs sur le crédit dans les pays ayant un système de supervision unifié. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les effets de la supervision couplée avec des outils réglementaires « traditionnels » sur la résilience et les profits bancaires dans des conditions de crise de long-terme. Parmi les instruments étudiés, c’est la taxe qui assure la profitabilité bancaire à long terme et l‘adaptation à la crise. Le troisième chapitre étudie une fraude financière complexe qui a eu lieu en Moldavie en 2011-2015. Un modèle qui réplique les schémas de fraude est construit pour étudier l‘optimalité de la décision de non-intervention de la Banque Centrale. Les résultats montrent qu'une intervention précoce n‘aurait pas minimisé les pertes du système bancaire, mais que la Banque Centrale aurait pu améliorer la situation en intervenant quand l‘exposition du secteur aux fraudeurs était minimale. / This thesis aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the effects of prudential supervision (a component of banking system regulation) on the stability of the banking sector, the soundness of financial institutions and, at a macro-economic level, its impact on domestic credit. The adopted research methods facilitate the integration of heterogeneity at the systemic and individual-agent levels into the analysis. Bayesian estimation techniques are used in the empirical part, whereas the theoretical sections utilize agent-based modeling. The first chapter studies the effects of prudential supervision on domestic credit in 27 EU countries. The results show an increase in supervisory stringency to produce a positive effect on credit in countries with unified supervisory frameworks. The second chapter investigates the effects of prudential supervision coupled with “traditional” regulatory tools on bank resiliency and profits under long-lasting crisis conditions. Taxes are found to be the most efficient tool as they potentiate long-term profitable bank operations and adaptation to the crisis. The third chapter provides a case-study of a complex financial fraud that took place in Moldova in 2011-2015. An agent-based model that replicates the schemes is constructed to study the optimality of the Central Bank’s decision to not intervene. The results show that early intervention wouldn’t necessarily have minimized the financial losses of the banking sector, but that the Central Bank could have improved the outcome of the crisis by intervening when the exposure of the banking sector to the fraudsters was minimal.

The Diploma Thesis deals with the banking crisis and aims to account for different approaches to the understanding of the nature of banking crisis. The Thesis further aims to provide answers why the banking crisis are caused and why so far there are no measures that would effectivelly prevent such crisis. At first, the Thesis states the definition of banking with the emphasis on banks as the institutional backbone of the current functioning of the financial system. The Thesis pays specific attention to the characteristics of two basic legal banking instruments, particulary loans and deposits. While acknowledging the loan expansion, the thesis argues the role of regulatory authorities and the limits of their competences in regards to the prevention of crisis. Followingly, the Thesis offers a view on a banking crisis phenomenon with appropriate historical overview outlining the banking crisis in Czechoslovakia in years 1918 to 1939 and after 1989, the loan expension influence on the business cycles and approaches to banking crisis solving in respect to stabilization of the banking system and restructuring of banks. At last but not least, the Thesis sums up the global financial crisis that started as a banking crisis, respectively as a crisis of one segment of the banking market in the United States...