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The overall goal of this study was to develop a comprehensive tool for assessing the effectiveness of selected BMPs on both hydrology and water quality and to demonstrate the applicability of the system by considering 1) temporally and spatially changing land use management practice in an agricultural watershed and 2) interaction between surface and ground water over the entire system. A user interface and Dynamic Agricultural Non-point Source Assessment Tool (DANSAT) were developed to achieve this goal. DANSAT is the only distributed-parameter, physically-base, continuous-simulation, and multi-soil layer model for simulating impacts of agricultural BMPs on hydrology and water qulality in small agricultural watersheds. DANSAT was applied to QNB plot (18m à 27m) and two agricultural watersheds in Virginia, including Owl Run watershed (1140 ha) and QN2 in the Nomini Creek watershed (216 ha), to evaluate the model components and its performance in predicting runoff, sediment yield, and pesticide load. DANSAT performed well in predicting total runoff and temporal variations in surface runoff for both field-scale and watershed-scale applications. Total percent errors between the measured and predicted results were less than 10% except for one case (39.8% within a subwatershed of Owl Run watershed), while the daily Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies were greater than 0.5 in all applications. Predicted total sediment yields were within ±35% of observed values in all applications. However, the performance of DANSAT in predicting temporal trend and spatial distribution of sediment loads was acceptable only within Owl Run watershed, where high correlations between flow rates and sediment loads exist. The predicted total pesticide loads were within ±100% of observed values. DANSAT failed to simulate the temporal occurrence of pesticide loads with a 0.42 daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value. The Dual-Simulation (DS) was developed within the linked ground water approach to resolve problems encountered due to the existence of different temporal scales between DANSAT and the existing ground water models such as MODFLOW and MT3D. The linked approach performed better in predicting the seasonal trend of total runoff compared to the integrated approach by showing an increase in monthly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value from 0.53 to 0.60. Surface and subsurface output variables were sensitive to the changes in spatially distributed soil parameters such as total porosity and field capacity. A maximum grid size of 100 m was recommended to be appropriate for representing spatial distribution of topographic, land use, and soil characteristics based on accuracy analysis during the GIS manipulation processes. Larger time-step based on predefined acceptable maximum grid size, decreased the computational time dramatically. Overall sensitivity to different grid sizes and time-steps was smallest for hydrology components followed by sediment and pesticide components. Dynamic crop rotation was considered by DANSAT, and the model successfully simulated the impacts of temporal and spatial changes in crop rotations on hydrology and water quality for both surface and subsurface areas. DANSAT could prove to be a useful tool for non-point source pollution managers to assess the relative effectiveness of temporally and spatially changing BMPs on both surface and ground water quantity and quality. / Ph. D.

This dissertation explores the adoption of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in the Kentucky River watershed. Through a survey of farmers in the Kentucky River watershed, chapter two investigates farmers’ current BMP adoption and their willingness to engage in additional adoption incentivized through a proposed Water Quality Trading (WQT) program. This chapter includes two parts: the first part is to investigate the factors influencing farmers’ current usage of BMPs; the second part is to estimate farmers’ willingness to implement BMPs given different levels of compensation specified in the survey. Farmers’ experiences about BMPs are more likely to persuade them to adopt additional BMPs. The activities of using riparian buffers, fencing off animals and building up waste storage facilities are found to be responsive to the levels of compensation offered. The third chapter discusses farmers’ expected economic benefits from BMP adoption, and addresses the missing data issue. In the survey, of those respondents who indicated that they accept the offered level of compensation, about 20% of them did not answer the follow-up question of how much they would adopt the practice, creating missing data. We compare three methods to handle the issue of missing data: deletion method, mean imputation, and multiple imputation method. Following these methods, we estimate factors affecting how much farmers may engage in BMPs using a Tobit or Poisson model. The results show that increasing the compensation for using BMPs is more likely to encourage farmers to adopt riparian buffers. Results obtained using the method of multivariate imputation by chained equation are more promising than using the deletion or mean imputation method. The fourth chapter examines whether wealth change and local community interaction may affect BMP adoption. Survey data on BMP adoption are combined with the local community data from publically available sources. Results show that the decrease in land values between 2007 and 2012 discouraged the adoption of riparian buffers; the equine inventory in local communities has positive impact on the adoption of animal fences and nutrient management; the more rural the local communities are, the less likely farmers would fence off livestock from water resources.

The Chesapeake Bay, once one of the worlds most productive estuaries, has been severely impacted by human activity in the water and on the lands around it. Viewed as an ecosystem, the Bay is no longer able to support the variety and abundance of biota that it was historically able to. Several decades of research on the Chesapeake have pointed to human activities as being the principle reason for this decline. Of these detrimental activities, elevated inputs of Nitrogen and Phosphorus to the Bay were singled out as being the greatest cause of water quality deterioration. The state of Virginia is trying to reduce its annual load of Nitrogen, to the Potomac River, to 60% of what the load was estimated to be in 1985. Virginia would like to accomplish this goal at the lowest cost to its citizens. Therefore the state needs to determine the combination of nitrogen control efforts which will achieve the goal at the lowest cost. The state would also like to be able to maintain nitrogen loads at or below this cap level, indefinitely into the future. This study was undertaken with three primary objectives. The first was to project the level of annual nitrogen inputs to the Potomac River, from the state of Virginia, over the next 15 years. The second was to estimate the minimum annual costs necessary to achieve and maintain a 40% reduction in total nitrogen inputs, using the Virginia's estimated 1985 inputs as a baseline. The final objective was to assess the potential cost savings that may result from using one of two alternative development patterns within the rapidly urbanizing Northern Virginia portion of the Potomac Watershed. The first alternative is prohibiting low-density development within the Northern Virginia region, and the second is to restrict all new development to be within 5 miles of an existing urban area. Study results suggest that there has been no significant progress toward meeting the nitrogen reduction goal, due to the increase in population within the watershed, over the past 13 years. To attain the goal in 1998, a minimum of $27 million, above what is currently being spent annually, would be required. Under the current land use trend within Virginia's Potomac Basin, the annual cost for maintaining the goal is estimated to rise to $38 million annually, in 1998 dollars, by the year 2013. This is a 40% increase in cost. If the first alternative development pattern is adhered to over this 15-year period, then the annual cost will be $33 million, for an annual cost saving of approximately $5 million in 2013. The second alternative could achieve similar results if implemented, costing roughly $5 million less in 2013 than the annual cost per year under the current trend. These findings suggest that the use of alternative development patterns can help slow but not prevent the annual cost, of maintaining the cap, from rising. The study indicates that the reason for the continuous rise in annual cost, over this fifteen-year period, is due primarily to an increase in nitrogen loading to the Potomac that will result from the wastewater disposal needs of the growing population within the Basin. Furthermore, the state will eventually exhaust its lower cost options for reducing Nitrogen loadings, and at that point the annual cost for maintaining the Nitrogen Cap will begin to rise exponentially. Under current land use trends this rapid rise in cost is unlikely to occur within the next 15 years, and is more apt to occur sometime within the next 20 to 40 years. Once annual expenditures begin to rise exponentially it is unlikely that the state of Virginia would be able to maintain its 40% reduction goal. / Master of Science

Water quality management for agricultural production is a complicated and interesting problem. Hydrological and economic factors must be considered when designing strategies to reduce nutrient runoff from agricultural activities. This dissertation is composed of three chapters that investigate cost-effective ways to mitigate water pollution from agricultural nonpoint pollution sources and explore farmers' incentives when participating in water quality trading programs. Chapter 1 investigates landscape targeting of best management practices (BMPs) based on topographic index (TI) to determine how targeting would affect costs of meeting nitrogen (N) loading goals for Mahantango watershed, Pennsylvania. We use the results from two climate models and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models to estimate expected climate changes and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model to predict crop yields and N export. Costs of targeting and uniform placement of BMPs across the entire study area (4.23 km2) are compared under historical and future climate scenarios. We find that with a goal of reducing N loadings by 25%, spatial targeting methods could reduce costs by an average of 30% compared with uniform BMP placement under three historical climate scenarios. Cost savings from targeting are 38% under three future climate scenarios. Chapter 2 scales up the study area to the Susquehanna watershed (71,000 km2). We examine the effects of targeting the required reductions in N runoff within counties, across counties, and both within and across counties for the Susquehanna watershed. We set the required N reduction to 35%. Using the uniform strategy to meet the required N reduction as the baseline, results show that costs of achieving a regional 35% N reduction goal can be reduced by 13%, 31% and 36% with cross-county targeting, within-county targeting and within and across county targeting, respectively. Results from Chapters 1 and 2 suggest that cost effectiveness of government subsidy programs for water quality improvement in agriculture can be increased by targeting them to areas with lower N abatement costs. In addition, targeting benefits are likely to be even larger under climate change. Chapter 3 investigates the landowner's nutrient credit trading behavior when facing the price uncertainty given the credits are allowed to be banked for future use. A two-step decision model is used in this study. For the first step, we determine the landowner's application level of a BMP on working land in the initial time period. The nutrient credits awarded to the landowner depend on the nutrient reduction level at the edge of field generated by the BMP application. For the second step, we use an intertemporal model to examine the landowner's credit trading behavior with stochastic price fluctuations over time and with transaction costs. The theoretical framework is applied with a numerical simulation incorporated with a hydro-economic model and dynamic programming. Nutrient Management (NM) is selected as the BMP on working land to generate N credits. We find that gains to the landowner from credit banking increase with higher price volatility and with higher price drift, but that gains are larger with price volatility. However, for a landowner holding a small amount of nutrient credits, the gains from credit banking are small due to transaction costs. / Doctor of Philosophy / Two considerations are critical for efforts to mitigate nutrient runoff from nonpoint sources: cost effectiveness of strategies to reduce nutrient runoff and landowners' incentives to participate in these programs. This dissertation is composed of three manuscripts, aiming to evaluate the cost effectiveness of government subsidy programs for water quality management in agriculture and investigate the landowner's incentives to participate in water quality trading programs for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Chapter 1 investigates gains from targeting Best Management Practices (BMPs) under current and future climate conditions based on the soil characteristics relative to uniform BMP application for a small experimental watershed (4.23km2). Chapter 2 scales up the study area to a 71,000 km2 watershed and treats each county within the watershed as a representative farm to explore economic gains from targeting within county and across county based on counties' physical conditions and agricultural patterns. Both Chapters show that cost-effectiveness of government subsidy programs can be improved by spatial targeting BMPs to areas with lower abatement costs. Gains from targeting increase under climate change. In Chapter 3 we shows how a landowner's revenues from nutrient credit selling will be affected if the credits are allowed to be banked for future use when she faces price uncertainty. We find that gains to the landowner from credit banking increase more with higher price volatility than with higher price drift. Gains from banking are largely reduced by transaction costs associated with trading.