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This thesis consists of three essays that attempt to provide novel empirical analyses of important problems in finance. The first essay deals with the returns of actively managed mutual funds; the second and third essays attempt to bring further understanding to ultra high-frequency market microstructure data. The thread that binds these chapters together---if any---is the use of latent structure models. The first chapter attempts to identify unobserved populations of managers, the second looks for hidden structure in order book shapes, and the third searches for connections between order book events. Evaluating the performance of actively managed equity mutual funds is among the most important topics in the field of finance. In the first chapter, I present a new assessment of the stock picking ability of actively managed funds that accounts for the occurrence of false positives, an issue that complicates traditional assessments. I find that while the data is consistent with a small group of alpha-generating funds, the composition of this population experiences significant annual turnover and is, therefore, difficult to identify in advance. Between 1975 and 2015, the returns to a fund selection strategy based on the classification method fail to generate alpha. The second chapter begins a study of high-frequency limit order book data. With a view towards exploring the information content of limit orders, as opposed to market orders, I propose a factor model of order book shape. I start by building a unique dataset of Nasdaq limit order books that tracks order activity at ultra high-frequency. Analyzing over 20,000 stock-days, I find that the limit order book comprises three common factors, which I characterize as level, slope, and curvature. By combining these factors alongside price increments in a vector autoregression, I demonstrate that the factors not only explain limit order book shape but also predict returns over one-minute time intervals. In agreement with the claim that high-frequency traders serve a role in increasing market efficiency, I find a negative correlation between predictability and high-frequency trade activity. In the third chapter, I explore a continuous-time, event-driven model of limit order book dynamics. It is the first analysis of its kind to examine the microstructure of a broad cross-section of markets, as well as the first to introduce a Bayesian framework for the study of mutually-exciting Poisson processes in order-driven microstructure models. The picture that emerges is that of a strongly self- and mutually-exciting process characterized by intensity ``spikes'' lasting mere fractions of a second. The largest of these spikes are expected to generate between 0.5 and 2.0 order book events--up to 120 times the number of expected events per second. In the typical order book, market orders demonstrate a significant influence on limit orders and cancellations, but the relationship is non-reciprocating: while limit orders and cancellations exhibit strong interactions with each other, they have no effect on the arrival of market orders. Over 99.5% of the markets examined are stable, and in every market examined, the network model significantly improves in-sample fit relative to a baseline Poisson model. I argue that this improvement is due almost entirely to the most active 20-25% of connections.

Many international companies have entered China because of its expanding opportunities. However, for expatriate managers to innovate and implement their strategic plans in order to exploit these opportunities, they must know and work with their Chinese subordinates. But conflict is inevitable within organizations, especially when people with different cultural backgrounds work together. Culture not only affects people’s preferred ways of doing things but also influences their styles to deal with conflicts. Compared with Westerners, Chinese people have been found to employ indirect ways and prefer to avoid conflict. To facilitate effective communication, it is imperative for Western managers to understand why local subordinates might avoid conflicts and what strategies they will use. This paper explores the dynamic structure of conflict avoidance between Western managers and Chinese employees; we want to understand the different strategies used to avoid conflict. Specifically, this study uses the theory of cooperation and competition to predict people’s responses toward conflict avoidance. We hypothesize that conflict avoidance is not always negative but depends on the specific actions the protagonists adopt and their perceptions of the goal interdependence with each other (cooperative or competitive) greatly influence their tactics to avoid conflict. The study extends research on conflict avoidance to foreign invested companies in China and develops a typology of the dynamics of conflict avoidance. Altogether 132 face-to-face interviews were carried out in Hong Kong and Beijing, China. Participants who work with Western managers were asked to describe an incident in which they avoided a conflict with their foreign superiors; it included the setting, what occurred, the reasons, and the consequences. Then they rated specific questions on 7-point Likert-type scale based on the recalled incidents. Employees whose bosses are local managers were also recruited as a control group. Structural equation modeling and other analyses will explore the proposed model and help to compare cultural differences in handling conflicts between the Western and Chinese managers. The paper draws implications for managing in foreign invested firms.

How do teams achieve their best performance? Why do some teams develop into top performers while others, seemingly the same, do not? The answers to these questions will provide a practical and theoretical team behavior understanding. Traditional models do not explain how teams work (Lembke and Wilson, 1998). A static model offers a snapshot on team behavior (Kelly and McGrath, 1984), but no real understanding of its dynamics. A dynamic team behavior model, on the other hand, captures the development processes. A dynamic model is required if insights about why and how team performance is created are to be obtained. In this work, I approach the problem of creating a complex dynamic model of team behavior. I offer a framework for developing such models by combining systems approaches and empirical team research. This framework allows a team to be formally represented as a system of mathematical relationships and parameters in order for its behavior, complexity and dynamics to be quantitatively explored. The purpose of this doctoral dissertation is to demonstrate how models exhibiting complex behavior can be developed and to validate a sample model. To do this, first, a framework for complex model development is derived and presented. Second, using the framework guidelines and based on team behavior research, a team model is constructed. Third, the model relationships are quantified and a behavioral simulation is performed. Fourth, the relationships in the model are estimated from the data from the laboratory simulation, thereby allowing the theoretical model to be verified. Fifth, systems specific analytical tools are used to analyze the model. To provide data for the model, 72 three-member student teams conducted a behavioral simulation. Statistical analysis showed that all hypothesized relationships are significant, except Team Quality Performance. Based on the statistical results, simulation models were constructed and simulations performed. The simulations show the dynamics of the systems studied. Further, the simulated systems were analyzed to assess stability, equilibrium, equifinality and controllability. These analyses showed that the systems studied are stable, non-equifinal, not completely controllable and do not achieve equilibrium. Exploratory findings and future research opportunities are also discussed.

This thesis randomly sampled the general aviation pilot population of Utah, Nevada, and Idaho for the purpose of determining the extent of the near midair collision hazards in these areas. The conditions investigated were all possible situations associated with a flight, and all that could be readily answered on a data form without encountering bias in the study. The thesis provided certain insights into what hazards are to be expected in the general aviation population of the three states under study. It also indicated as much as possible, what the causes were of the hazards and what actions could be taken to remedy or, at best, lessen them.

The possibility of developing leading economic indicators of housing starts, on a localized basis, was studied in Tremonton, Utah, for the period from 1958 to 1965. Data on any economic variable which might show a leading relationship to housing starts was gathered and synthesized to ascertain any predicting tendencies. Several of the variables researched, particularly contracts awarded to Thiokol and Thiokol employment, showed a high positive correlation to housing starts; however, none showed any consistent leading pattern. An accelerator relationship was found to exist between the average rate of change in Thiokol employment and housing starts. This finding, though not directly applicable to the study, resulted in the most economically rational explanation for the absence of a leading indicator.

This study sought to determine whether an MBA degree from Utah State University (USU) was meeting the emotional intelligence (EI) needs of the workplace from the perception of its graduates. This research assessed perception of EI skills with a researcher-designed instrument that consisted of a 22-question survey that was e-mailed to USU students who completed an MBA between 2000 and 2006. The survey questionnaire given to MBA graduates was titled Assessment of Emotional Intelligence and was divided into three distinct parts. The first category (questions 1-10) had to do with industry expectations as perceived by MBA graduates. The second category (questions 11-20) emphasized curriculum in USU’s MBA program, and the third category (21-22) asked for demographic information that was not available from student records or the initial participation postcard. The findings from this research present evidence of the MBA program’s strength in teaching teamwork and collaboration. There was strong agreement that the program taught these skills and that they are expected skills in the workplace. This finding, however, was both affirming and concerning at the same time because it was found that the ratings for none of the other related EI competencies were comparably equal with those of teamwork and collaboration. The lack of correlation between the latent variables, or constructs, employed in this analysis implied that the MBA program could benefit by offering more instruction in EI competencies.

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