To deepen understanding of the relation between economic development and energy demand, this study estimates the Engel curves that relate per-capita energy consumption in major economic sectors to per-capita GDP. Panel data covering up to 123 nations are employed, and measurement problems are treated both in dataset construction and in estimation. Time and country fixed effects are assumed, and flexible forms for income effects are employed. There are substantial differences among sectors in the structure of country, time, and income effects. In particular, the household sector's share of aggregate energy consumption tends to fall with income, the share of transportation tends to rise, and the share of industry follows an inverse-U pattern. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 15-16). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

The authors offer a provisional assessment of where the Kyoto negotiations have left the climate change issue. They present a few widely divergent assesments of what the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change will accomplish, and describe some differing interpretations of its text in the context of the underlying international disagreement, as well as in differing perceptions of the underlying science and economics. The paper includes a brief but up-to-date summary of what we know and don't know about human influences on climate, and what it might take to restrain them. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-23). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties about future economic growth and technological development, there is a great deal of uncertainty in emissions projections. This paper demonstrates the use of the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method, an efficient means for propagating uncertainty through large models, to investigate the probability distributions of carbon emissions from the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. From the specific results of the uncertainty analysis, several conclusions with implications for climate policy are given, including the existence of a wider range of possible outcomes than suggested by differences between models, the fact that a "global emissions path through time" does not actually exist, and that the uncertainty in costs and effects of carbon reduction policies differ across regions. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-32). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Includes bibliographical references (p. 14). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM version 4.1) is applied to assess the sensitivity of net ecosystem production (NEP) of the terrestrial biosphere to transient changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate in the 21st century. These NEP estimates provide a measure of the potential for various vegetated regions and countries to act as sinks or sources of atmospheric CO2. We use three transient climate change predictions over the period of 1977-2100 from the MIT Integrated Global System Model for assessment of the effects of different climate changes. Global annual NEP has large interannual variations and increases over time, thus representing a growing net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere. Latitudinal distribution of total annual NEP along 0.5 degree resolution latitudinal bands has a significant shift from the tropics to the northern mid- and high-latitudes over time. The sums of annual NEP over the period of 1990-2100 differ substantially among the twelve economic regions of the world. The results show that temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of annual NEP are very sensitive to the magnitudes and paths of temporal changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 13-16). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Drawing upon a variety of different criteria, many nations have introduced proposals to differentiate the reductions in carbon emissions that would be required of industrialized nations in the short to medium term. This paper considers the relationship of these proposals to their underlying conceptions of equity, and to the self-interest of the nations proposing them. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment (EPPA) model is used to analyze the welfare implications of several prominent proposals, considering both cases where nations must carry out all emissions reductions domestically, and situations where trading in emissions permits is allowed. The consequences of applying two prominent differentiation measures to a global regime using a zero-based allocation of emissions rights is also explored. One conclusion is that a trading regime can yield important benefits in reducing potential conflict within developed nations, and help avoid complicated and divisive negotiations over burden-sharing formulas. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

The Climate Convention calls for stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This paper considers the issues that must be faced in formulating a plan to meet any such target, using a proposed CO2 level of 550 ppmv as an example. We hypothesize a set of "necessary conditions" for such a goal to be achievable, and test set of possible forms of agreement against them using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment (EPPA) model. The results highlight the importance of emissions trading to the feasibility of such a target, and the need for an agreement that can adapt efficiently over time to changing relative economic circumstances in participating nations. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 19). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). / Includes bibliographical references (p. 9-10).

Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). / Includes bibliographical references (p. 12-14).