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Coupling of ecological and water quality models for improved water resource and fish managementTillman, Dorothy Hamlin 15 May 2009 (has links)
In recent years new ideas for nutrient management to control eutrophication in estuarine
environments have been under consideration. One popular approach being considered in the
Chesapeake Bay Program is called the “top down” approach based on the premise that restoring
algal predators, such as oysters and menhaden, will limit excess phytoplankton production and
possibly eliminate costly nutrient control programs. The approach is being considered to replace
or use in conjunction with the “bottom up” approach of reducing nutrient loads. The ability to
model higher trophic levels such as fish, as well as the eutrophication processes driving
production of primary producers in an aquatic ecosystem is needed. CE-QUAL-ICM (ICM) and
Ecopath were two models selected for this research. ICM is a time- and spatial-varying
eutrophication model that uses nutrient loads to predict primary producers, while Ecopath is a
static mass balance model representing an average time period (e.g., season or year) and uses
values of primary producers and other groups to predict fish biomass. Linking the two models
will provide the means of going up the food chain by trophic levels. The Chesapeake Bay was
chosen as the study site since both models are in use there.
Before coupling ICM and Ecopath, common links between the two models were found.
Ten groups were identified with such variables as production rates, consumption rates, and
unassimilated food/consumption. A post-processor/subroutine was developed for ICM to aggregate output data from 3-D to 0-D to be used in Ecopath. Two Ecopath runs were developed
with data from ICM and the Chesapeake Bay (CB) Ecopath model to see how network
interactions differed with data representing the same system. Four additional runs were made,
creating perturbations (i.e., increased phytoplankton production) using the CB Ecopath model
and replacing the primary producers with data from ICM. Final runs of ICM were conducted
looking at adjusting three parameters to try to restore the Bay back to 1950 conditions. It was
demonstrated that ICM data can be coupled with Ecopath to study management strategies in
eutrophication. Because of model formulations there was no data exchange from Ecopath back to
ICM.
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