Risk analysis using likelihood or probability and consequence (L x C) is prone to both methodological and application errors. This contributes to difficulties in achieving risk reduction. As an alternative to the L x C model, this study reviews risk and control effectiveness within the Australian extractive minerals industry. It draws on existing models, locally and internationally, and their application in other industry contexts. The study contends that control effectiveness is more useful and beneficial than L x C alone in determining ‘acceptable’ risk. This hypothesis is substantiated by the development of an alternative model, Major Accident Control Analysis (MACA), based around the prevention of fatalities by exploring and quantifying the following control parameters: 1) controls pre and/or post event, 2) the control type, and 3) the effectiveness of the specific control. By assigning these control parameters, discrete values, comparisons between individual ‘risk’ scenarios and established numerical acceptability risk criteria are possible. The theoretical proposition of this research was tested using detailed case studies to highlight the flaws of conventional risk analysis and, instead, accentuate control effectiveness as a superior method for prioritising risk and determine acceptability. The results of the research demonstrate that control effectiveness, utilised by the MACA method, is particularly valuable when limited data is available to permit quantification, data is too generalised for the operating conditions and where qualitative risk estimates are insufficient and inappropriate to prevent fatalities. MACA employs mathematically valid algorithms previously not envisaged nor developed by earlier methodologies. Importantly, these algorithms enable an interchangeable conversion of control effectiveness ‘values’ to risk ‘values’. Beyond the immediate findings of the research, the additional benefits of control effectiveness are multiple. The principles are suitable to the dynamic nature of the minerals industry, yet are highly adaptable and can be readily applied beyond the field of mining. The methodology could be applied to any circumstance where traditional risk analysis is typically undertaken, thus demonstrating broader application and significance. Furthermore, the methodology is compatible with, and complementary to, existing risk approaches. The intrinsic flexibility offered by this alternative method makes provision for international variations of risk criteria used to determine ‘acceptability’. It is thus determined that the application of control effectiveness estimation offers benefits over and beyond those currently employed.

The main area of emphasis in this study is to investigate the methods and technology for aerodynamic configuration sizing of missiles and to develop a software platform in MATLAB&reg / environment as a design tool which has an ability of optimizing the external configuration of missiles for a set of flight requirements specified by the user through a graphical user interface. A genetic algorithm based optimization tool is prepared by MATLAB is expected to help the designer to find out the best external geometry candidates in the conceptual design stage. Missile DATCOM software package is employed to predict the aerodynamic coefficients needed in finding the performance merits of a missile for each external geometry candidate by integrating its dynamic equations of motion. Numerous external geometry candidates are rapidly eliminated according to objectives and constraints specified by designers, which provide necessary information in preliminary design. In this elimination, the external geometry candidates are graded according to their flight performances in order to discover an optimum solution. In the conceptual design, the most important performance objectives related to the external geometry of a missile are range, speed, maneuverability, and control effectiveness. These objectives are directly related to the equations of motion of the missile, concluding that the speed and flight range are related to the total mass and the drag-to-lift ratio acting on missile. Also, maneuverability depends on the normal force acting on missile body and mass whereas the control effectiveness is affected by pitching moment and mass moment of inertia of missile. All of the flight performance data are obtained by running a two degree-of-freedom simulation. In order to solve the resulting multi-objective optimization problem with a set of constraint of linear and nonlinear nature and in equality and inequality forms, genetic-algorithm-based methods are applied. Hybrid encoding methods in which the integer configuration variables (i.e., nose shape and control type) and real-valued geometrical dimension (i.e., diameter, length) parameters are encoded in the same individual chromosome. An external configuration design tool (EXCON) is developed as a synthesis and external sizing tool for the subsonic cruise missiles. A graphical user interface (GUI), a flight simulator and optimization modules are embedded into the tool. A numerical example, the re-configuration problem of an anti-ship cruise missile Harpoon, is presented to demonstrate the accuracy and feasibility of the conceptual design tool. The optimum external geometries found for different penalty weights of penalty terms in the cost function are compared according to their constraint violations and launch mass values. By means of using EXCON, the launch mass original baseline Harpoon is reduced by approximately 30% without deteriorating the other flight performance characteristics of the original Harpoon.

В диссертации рассмотрена проблематика государственного финансового контроля в России, обоснована роль и место внешнего муниципального финансового контроля в системе государственного контроля. В процессе исследования проведён анализ деятельности Счётной палаты г. Екатеринбурга и выявлены основные недостатки работы контрольно-счетных органов. В частности, выявлено, что численность сотрудников Счетной палаты г.Екатеринбурга в два раза ниже нормативных значений, в результате чего проверкой охватывается не более 5% всех доходов и расходов муниципалитета. К другим немаловажным проблемам относятся отсутствие автоматизации процессов контрольной и экспертно-аналитической деятельности контрольно-счетных органов, при составлении отчетов в результате контрольных мероприятий используется неинформативная классификации финансовых нарушений и ошибок. В результате исследования разработана авторская методика оценки эффективности деятельности муниципальных контрольно-счетных органов, позволяющая учесть недочеты существующих методик. / The dissertation examines the problems of state financial control in Russia, substantiates the role and place of external municipal financial control in the system of state control. In the course of the study, an analysis of the activities of the Accounts Chamber of the city of Yekaterinburg was carried out and the main shortcomings of the work of the control and accounting authorities were identified. In particular, it was revealed that the number of employees of the Accounts Chamber of Yekaterinburg is two times lower than the normative values, as a result of which the audit covers no more than 5% of all income and expenses of the municipality. Other important problems include the lack of automation of the processes of control and expert-analytical activity of control and accounting bodies; when compiling reports as a result of control measures, an uninformative classification of financial irregularities and errors is used. As a result of the study, the authors developed a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the activities of municipal control and accounting bodies, which allows taking into account the shortcomings of existing methods.