The long-term care (LTC) sector in Canada has experienced high numbers of COVID-19 deaths. However, there is a paucity of data on the impact of COVID-19 in LTC by different socio- demographic variables and in LTC homes within different regions. Additionally, the question remains as to how exactly and by how much the pandemic has impacted mortality in LTC in comparison to previous years’ mortality. Ranges for expected mortality by sex, province, and age, for the 2020-21 fiscal year were determined by creating forecasts and confidence intervals based on mortality trends in the preceding four fiscal years. These ranges were then compared to the actual mortality data in 2020-21. Comparisons between expected ranges and actual data were also conducted for the number of active residents, admissions, and discharges in LTC by sex, province, and age. Further, mortality ratios were created and studied by sex, province, age, and health region/authority/local health integration network. Overall, the number of deaths in LTC in Canada increased beyond the expected ranges in quarter one and three of 2020-21, and the patterns in death ratios were similar. Increases were exceptional in comparison to the peaks in deaths in previous years for specific variables, but not all variables. Most commonly, the number of active residents and admissions decreased in 2020-21 and the number of discharges from LTC did not change in quarter one and three and decreased in quarter two and four. However, importantly, these trends also varied across variables. This was the first study to comprehensively examine mortality due to COVID-19 in LTC overall, and by multiple socio- demographic variables while elucidating the complexity in the study of mortality in LTC. Further research is required to concretely understand mortality in LTC by different variables and regions. / Thesis / Master of Arts (MA) / This study examined mortality due to COVID-19 from April 2020 to March 2021 in Canadian long-term care (LTC) homes by sex, age, province, and health region. Ranges of predicted values for mortality were created from mortality data from previous years and then compared with actual mortality. The number of active residents, admissions, and discharges were also examined by sex, age, and province to factor for changes in the population at risk. Overall, mortality increased in some quarters (April-June 2020 and October-December 2020) but was not always exceptional, as similar mortality rates had been observed in the four years prior to the pandemic. Also, the increase in mortality was seen mostly among younger residents (65 to 85); mortality remaining stable for the 85+. Further research is still required to better understand mortality in LTC by regional characteristics.

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