This diploma thesis examines the possibilities of using the PE ratio in the creation of a stock portfolio on the Chinese and American stock market. The result of this work is the finding that low PE shares achieve higher risk-weighted returns over short and long investment horizons than shares with high PE values in both ex-amined markets. However, based on the detected volatility of the shares with the extreme values of PE, it is possible to recommend the use of this indicator for creation of the portfolio only to the most speculative investors.

After a long-time preparation, CSI 300 index futures has made a milestone in the financial market in China in the 16 of April, 2010. In order to know what kind of impact will bring to stock market after the appearance of stock index future, the study discusses volatility and volume separately. On one hand, the study applies Modified Levene and GJR-GARCH as the empirical model, and the result indicates that stock return fluctuation is a short-term phenomenon. However, the result shows that the stock return volatility has no difference in the long-run. Furthermore, it not only reduces the asymmetric return fluctuation from good and bad news cause but improve the information efficiency in the spot market after the introduction of the stock index futures. On the other hand, the study applies multiple regression model and panel model to examine the crowding-out effect and the volume difference after the stock index futures enters the market. First, there is no crowding-out effect in the stock market. Second, both the trading volume of the constituent and non-constituent stocks increase after the introduction of the stock index futures, whereas the level of increasing trading volume of the constituent stocks is larger than non- constituent stocks are.

本篇論文以滬深300 指數調整前後期的異常報酬、影子成本、流動性、資訊不稱性及套利風險的變動觀察中國投資者的行為。本研究發現在調整後的短期間中中國股票的報酬與國外文獻的變動方向一致,調入股將上漲而調出股則下跌，但於長期則有十分明顯的相反傾向。本文將影子成本等四個變數加入作前後期變動的觀察。發現調整期前後影子成本、流動性、套利風險和資訊不對稱性的變動都與與文獻變動方向假設一致。最後本文把異常報酬作應變數，其餘各項作自變數去觀察四個變數影響報酬的程度和方向。回歸後發現只有流動性的影響符合前人以S&P500 作指標的研究,其他則是有著不一致的影響。本文認為這個現象與文獻中不同的原因是滬 深300 指數偏向於納入高估的股票而剔除低估的股票。滬深300 指數是以股票前一年的交易量大小作標準，這使得81%交易量為個人投資者提供的滬深300 指數偏向納入高估股票。這可能使得中國市場的指數調整效應與文獻並不一致。 / This paper empirically examines the differences of abnormal return, shadow cost, liquidity effect, information asymmetry and arbitrage risk during the composition change of CSI300 index to observe the behavior of investors in China market. Although this paper examines the short term return of adjusted stock change in the same direction as recent studies, added stocks increase and deleted stocks decrease, the long term return reverse. This paper also computes those four variables to observe their changes during the adjustment. The results show that the movements of these four variables are similar to the previous studies. To observe how these variables affect the return of the stocks, this paper computes a regression analysis with the cumulative abnormal return as the dependent variable. The results show that only the affection of liquidity matches the recent studies of S&P 500, when the others are not. The reason of this phenomenon maybe because of the CSI 300 index intends to include the overestimated stocks and exclude the underestimated stocks. The adjustment is determined by the past one year trading volume, which means that the market, with individual investors provided 81 % of trading volume, may possibly overestimate the included stocks. That maybe the reason why the influence of composition change is not similar to recent studies.

本文係利用高頻資料研究股票指數期貨的到期日效應，考量到中國的衍生性商品起步甚晚，相關研究不如台灣來的多，因此選取中國的滬深300股指期貨市場作為本研究的主題，希望能夠為後續有興趣的研究者提供參考。但是因為中國市場的資料取得不易，本文所使用的樣本資料只為期兩年，選取2010年4月16日到2012年4月20日的滬深300股指期貨的1分鐘高頻數據作為原始數據。 本文目的在於研究滬深300股指期貨經由考慮成交量、價格反轉以及波動度的到期日效應，實證結果發現在期貨到期日當天與隔一天的某些交易時段明顯存在著型0、型I與型II價格反轉，成交量檢驗指出，到期日成交量明顯大於非到期日成交量，波動度異常檢驗顯示，到期日收盤前五分鐘的波動度有異常放大的現象。本文的實證結果部分，利用模擬投資策略去檢驗價格反轉在經濟上是否有意義，發現價格反轉不只是在統計上顯著，同樣也是具有經濟意義的，但是把資料依據時間區分為前後兩部分並做檢驗之後也發現，這種經濟意義會隨著時間而呈現遞減的狀態。 / The central idea of this thesis is studying expiration effects of stock index futures. As we know, China stock index futures market, which is also known as CSI 300 Index futures market, is experiencing its early stage with fewer related studies comparing to Taiwan stock futures market. In order to provide research references for succeeding researchers interested in CSI 300 Index futures market. However, having difficulties collecting high frequency market data from CSI 300 Index futures market, we use only two years data from the beginning of CSI 300 Index futures market. The main purpose of this thesis is to study the expiration effect of CSI 300 Index futures by from three aspects, price reversals, volume effects and abnormal return volatility. The empirical results shows that type 0, type I and type II existed in several trading hours in both the expiration day and the next trading day. Second, it indicated that the trading volume in expiration days is significantly larger than in non-expiration days. Third, the empirical result also pointed out that magnified return volatilities existing in five minutes before market closes on the expiration day. Moreover, we used simulated investment strategies as analysis tools and found that price-reversal effect is significant on economical basis. However, we discovered that the level of these effects is declining gradually from the beginning to the end of data period.