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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

A liquidez da economia brasileira: uma anÃlise da evoluÃÃo em um cenÃrio de crise financeira e de calendÃrio eleitoral no perÃodo 1995-2014 / The liquidity of the Brazilian economy: an analysis of trends in a backdrop of financial crisis and electoral calendar in period 1995-2014

Rubens Gustavo Nocrato Rocha 29 August 2014 (has links)
nÃo hà / O presente trabalho analisa a dinÃmica da liquidez da economia brasileira no perÃodo de janeiro/1995 a junho/2014, considerando os possÃveis efeitos das crises internacionais e de calendÃrio eleitoral sobre os meios de pagamento disponÃveis. Aplicando um modelo autorregressivo com valor limite endÃgeno aos dados das sÃries temporais de moedas e crÃditos buscadas no Banco Central do Brasil, foram obtidas estimativas que permitem inferir que a dinÃmica da liquidez da economia segue uma tendÃncia explosiva e que, muito embora nÃo esteja consistentemente relacionada a choques de crises internacionais e de cenÃrio polÃtico, a sensibilidade desses agregados monetÃrios aos choques macroeconÃmicos à perceptÃvel apenas em seus meios com maior liquidez, os quais apresentaram mudanÃa de regime no perÃodo estudado. Em conjunto, os resultados sugerem ainda que a situaÃÃo econÃmica esperada no longo prazo à estÃvel e que sÃo fracos os indÃcios de que a liquidez da economia seja afetada pelo calendÃrio eleitoral. / This paper analyzes the Brazilian economy liquidity dynamics from January 1995 and June 2014, taking into consideration the possible effects of international crisis and elections around available payment vehicles. Applying an endogenous threshold autoregressive model of cash time series and credits from Brazilian Central Bank, estimates were captured so that allows conclude that the economic liquidity dynamic given that tends to explode, however is not tied to the international crisis and the political scenario, the sensitivity around macroeconomics scenarios is perceived among its vehicles with more liquidity which shows regime change to the studied time. The results show that it is expected a stable economic scenario in long term and that there is a very low probability that the economy liquidity will be affected by the elections.

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