The topographical variations of the seas around Taiwan are great, which make the tides complicated. Taiwan is located in the juncture of the tropical and subtropical area. Geographically, it is located within the region of northwestern Pacific typhoon path. These seasonal and geographical situations causing Taiwan frequently threaten by typhoons during summer and autumn. In addition to natural disasters, the coastal area is over developed for the last few decades, which destroys the balance between nature and man. Storms and floods constantly threaten the lowland areas along the coast. An accurate and efficient storm surge model can be used to predict tides and storm surges. The model can be calibrated and verified with the field observations. Data measured by instruments at the tidal station constituting daily tidal variations and storm surge influences during typhoons. The model can offer both predictions to the management institutions and to the general public as pre-warning system and thus taking disaster-prevention measures. This study implements the numerical model, developed by Yu (1993) and Yu et al. (1994) to calculate the hydrodynamic in the seas around Taiwan. The main purpose of this study is to make a calibration and sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. Tidal gauge data around Taiwan coastal stations collected from June to October 2005 are used for the analysis and the comparison between the modeled data and the observations. Two steps have been taken for the model calibration and sensitivity analysis. First step is to calibrate the model for accurate prediction of the astronomical tide, and then the compound tide with meteorological influences. For the calibration of the astronomical tides, sensitivity analysis has been carried out by adjusting the horizontal diffusion coefficient and the bottom friction coefficients used in the model. The sensitivity of the time-step size used in the model and model grids fitted to coastlines are also checked. A depth dependent Chézy numbers are used in the model to describe bottom friction. The model has a better result when the Chézy value varied within 65 to 85. Modifying grids fitted to the coastline has improved the model results significantly. By improving the dynamic phenomenon brought about by the land features, the model calculation fits the real tidal phenomenon better. The analysis has shown that the model is less sensitive to the horizontal diffusion coefficient. Data from 22 tidal stations around Taiwan have been used for the comparisons. The maximum RMSE (root-mean-square error) is about 10 cm at WAi-Pu, whereas the minimum RMSE is about 1 cm for the stations along eastern coast. The calibration of the compound tide is divided into three cases. The first case is to calibrate the forecasted wind field. This has been done by comparing the forecasted wind field from the Central Weather Bureau with the satellite data obtained from QuikSCAT¡XLevel 3. The satellite wind speed has been applied to adjust the forecasted wind speed. The adjusted forecast wind field has shown improvement to the model predictions in the tidal stations south of Taichung, slightly improved in the eastern coast. The second case is tuning the drag coefficient on sea surface used by the hydrodynamic model. Several empirical formulas to describe the sea surface drag have been tested. The model result has shown little influence using various drag formulations. The third case is to single the influences by the meteo-inputs, i.e. the wind field and the atmospheric pressure. The tidal level is more sensitive to the variation of the atmospheric pressure through out the tests carried out during typhoon periods. The model simulation for 2006 using the best selected parameters has shown that the model is consisted with good stability and accuracy for both stormy and calm weather conditions.

Forests are a valuable resource for humans providing a range of products and services such as construction timber, paper and fuel wood, recreation, as well as living quarters for indigenous populations and habitats for many animal and bird species. Most recent international political agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol emphasise the role of forests as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide mitigation. However, forest areas are rapidly decreasing world wide. Thus, it is vital that efficient strategies and tools are developed to encourage sustainable ecosystem management. These tools must be based on known ecological principles (such as tree physiological and soil nutrient cycle processes), capable of supplying fast and accurate temporal and spatial predictions of the effects of management on both timber production and carbon sequestration. This thesis had two main objectives. The first was to investigate the environmental factors affecting growth and carbon sequestration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) across Scotland, by developing a knowledge base through a statistical analysis of old and novel field datasets. Furthermore, the process-based ecosystem model 3-PGN was developed, by coupling the existing models 3-PG and ICBM. 3-PGN calibrated using a Bayesian approach based on Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations and it was validated for plantation stands. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses provided an understanding of the internal feedbacks of the model. Further simulations gave a detailed eco-physiological interpretation of the environmental factors affecting Scots pine growth and it provided an assessment of carbon sequestration under the scenario of sustainable, normal production and its effects from the environment. Finally, the study investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of timber production and carbon sequestration by using the spatial version of the model and applying advanced spatial analyses techniques. The second objective was to help close the gap between environmental research and forest management, by setting a strategic framework for a process-based tool for sustainable ecosystem management. The thesis demonstrated the procedures for a site classification scheme based on modelling results and a yield table validation procedure, which can provide a way forward in supporting policies for forest management and ensuring their continued existence in the face of the present and future challenges.