Voters are exposed to vastly different campaign environments based on their geographic location. This results in heterogeneity in the intensity and communicative content that voters are exposed to across a nationally representative sample. The present analysis seeks to leverage this variance in communication environments facing voters to better capture the effects of campaign priming. I find that when taking account of the communications that voters face, the effects of priming are clearer, but also more complex. / text

Over the past two decades, a surge of interest in the area of forecasting has produced a number of statistical models available for predicting the winners of U.S. presidential elections. While historically the domain of individuals outside the scholarly community - such as political strategists, pollsters, and journalists - presidential election forecasting has become increasingly mainstream, as a number of prominent political scientists entered the forecasting arena. With the goal of making accurate predictions well in advance of the November election, these forecasters examine several important election "fundamentals" previously shown to impact national election outcomes. In general, most models employ some measure of presidential popularity as well as a variety of indicators assessing the economic conditions prior to the election. Advancing beyond the traditional, non-scientific approaches employed by prognosticators, politicos, and pundits, today's scientific models rely on decades of voting behavior research and sophisticated statistical techniques in making accurate point estimates of the incumbent's or his party's percentage of the popular two-party vote. As the latest evolution in presidential forecasting, these models represent the most accurate and reliable method of predicting elections to date. This thesis provides an assessment of forecasting models' underlying epistemological assumptions, theoretical foundations, and methodological approaches. Additionally, this study addresses forecasting's implications for related bodies of literature, particularly its impact on studies of campaign effects. / Master of Arts

Yes / This paper uses a leading UK supermarket’s loyalty card database to assess the effectiveness and impact of the 2004 UK reduced salt campaign. We present an econometric analysis of purchase data to assess the effectiveness of the Food Standard Agency’s (FSA) ‘reduced salt campaign’. We adopt a general approach to determining structural breaks in the time series of purchase data, using unit root tests whereby structural breaks are endogenously determined from the data. We find only limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of the FSA’s reduced salt campaign. Our results support existing findings in the literature that have used alternative methodologies to examine the impact of information campaigns on consumer choice of products with high salt content. / UK Food Standards Agency (FSA Project Code: D03008)

The question of whether or not campaigns have an impact on vote choice and mobilization has been debated by a number of scholars. In this dissertation, I explore this question using data from presidential nomination elections, as I argue this setting allows us to better understand campaign effects than the general election. Due to the intra-party nature of nomination contests, voters are not able to rely on partisanship in making their decision among candidates. Instead voters need to use some other source of information in making their decisions about 1) whether or not to vote and 2) which candidate to vote for. I explore these two decisions in depth in my dissertation, focusing mainly on the effect visits have on both. I have compiled data on both the timing and location of all of the candidate visits throughout the presidential nominating contests of 2008, across both the invisible primary and election year campaigns. Using this unique dataset, I explore the different ways in which state visits affect presidential nomination outcomes. Specifically, I investigate the strategy behind the visits, whether or not visits increase turnout, and how visits affect vote choice. By examining these different aspects of nominating campaigns, I am able to address a number of different literatures and theories, including those focused on candidate strategy, presidential nominations, political communication, and whether or not campaigns matter.

The study of electoral defence and its stated advantages are an integral part of American political science. Post-war, much academic literature has emerged in an attempt to identify and explain rising re-election rates of congressional incumbents and the political consequences of such a phenomenon (Mayhew 1974; Fiorina 1977; Cain, Ferejohn & Fiorina 1987; Gelman & King 1990; King 1991). Conversely, the study of political incumbency in Britain can be attributed to a handful of scholars who tend to consider the repercussions at parliamentary level (Williams 1967, King 1981, Cain, Ferejohn and Fiorina 1984, Norton 1990 & 1994, Norris, Valance & Lovenduski 1992). Consequently, incumbency advantage at the local level remains a relatively under-researched topic in England, confined to the sub-chapters of Rallings & Thrasher (1997). The aim of this thesis is to research and present evidence in support of incumbency effects in English local elections and the extent to which they influence their outcome, in that, incumbent candidates fare better than less experienced candidates, to different degrees across the three major parties. It will do so using survey and electoral data collected by The Elections Centre at Plymouth University, drawing on established methods from the literature and demonstrating via a variety of data and methods, that incumbency advantage is indeed a real phenomenon effecting the outcomes of local elections in England. The research provides substantial evidence for Sophomore Surge and Retirement Slump effects throughout the period examined (1974-2010). These methods of estimation feature alongside a number of others, which are constructed to uncover the significance of defending, rather than challenging for a council seat. A number of influences on the advantage that defending councillors maintain are also presented, including district magnitude, ward size and rural/urban classification. Results reveal a modest advantage for Conservative and Labour incumbent candidates, whilst the effects are shown to be stronger for the Liberal Democrats, a finding that is in step with the existing literature on electoral trends and the local campaign strategy of the party (Dorling et al, 1998; McAllister et al, 2002; Russell & Fieldhouse, 2005; Cutts 2006).