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"The so-called unfavourable balance may mean glorious things for a nation." Since a current account deficit and a net capital inflow are merely opposite sides of the same coin, there can be little doubt that the unfavourable balance, which Canada often has with the rest of the world, has been, in general, a great boon to the Canadian economy. [...]

This thesis examines the development of Japanese economic interest in Canada between 1978 and 1988, with a special emphasis on multinational decision making. The paper takes an eclectic approach to the issue because the trends within different industrial sectors varied widely, from strong growth in forestry investment and trade to slow expansions of technological ties. As a result of the increasing importance of the United States and the European Economic Community in the eyes of Japanese managers, coupled with the decline of the energy crisis in mid decade, resource suppliers like Canada declined in relative importance to Japan during this period, although Japanese investment and trade here expanded steadily in real terms. / Arts, Faculty of / History, Department of / Graduate

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Trade in similar products or intra-industry trade results from scale economies and consumer preferences, rather than from conventional forces of comparative advantage. This paper attempts to quantify the importance of intra-industry exchange between Canada and the United States. The analysis deals primarily with measurement, but an attempt to identify the determinants of the phenomenon is also made. / The results suggest that intra-industry trade represents a significant and increasing share of Canada's trade with the United States. Although part of this can be explained by idiosyncratic causes, the importance of two-way trade within manufacturing requires additional explanation.

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In this thesis, the impact of United States final demand on Canadian demand and production is investigated using an interregional input-output model. First, the simple Leontief input-output model is considered. It is a disaggregated model of the production sector of an economy that allows a set of industry outputs to be expressed as a function of a corresponding set of industry final demands. It improves on other output determination models by admitting that industry outputs are interdependent. However, it requires the assumption of fixed production coefficients. Next, the extension of the model to incorporate interregional trade is considered. Several models are described that determine the industry outputs of each of a group of regions as functions of the industry final demands in all regions. A model is selected that differs from all of these, not in its essential algebraic structure, but in the method by which it is applied. In the simplified form in which it is used in this study, it requires that Canada's merchandise exports to the United States be reclassified according to the industry schemes of the Canadian and American input-output tables. The main advantage of the model over the other interregional models considered is that it allows the input-output tables of the individual regions to be used in their original form. Using the model, two questions are investigated. First, how do equal expenditures on the various components of United States final demand - Consumption, Fixed investment, Federal Government purchases, and State and local government purchases -compare in their impact on Canadian demand and output ? Second, in the period 1956 to I960, did variation in the level and pattern of United States final demand tend to aggravate fluctuations in Canadian demand, output, and net exports ? Several results are obtained. With reference to the first question, Investment expenditure is found to have considerably greater impact on Canadian demand and production than any of the other components of United States demand. The wide disparity in impact is largely explained by the concentration of Canadian exports to the United States on a few commodities. Concerning the second question, it is concluded that variations in both the level and pattern of United States final demand helped to generate fluctuations in the growth of Canadian demand and output. By contrast, the fluctuation of United States final demand tended to damp fluctuations in Canadian net exports. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

The Latin American market for forest products is evaluated with emphasis on the economic, social, and political aspects influencing demand and trade. Canada's political, cultural and commercial relationships with Latin America are investigated and it is concluded that, currently, among the most important factors restricting a possible increase in trade with the area are: Canadian detachment from the Inter-American System and political isolation; reduced commerce with all countries south of the United States; trade patterns imposed by economic growth and by bilateral cooperation; and economic integration among the countries of the region. Trends indicate that as Latin America increases its financial wealth and income is distributed along more equitable lines, demand for industrial forest products will rise considerably. Estimates of demand for 1965, 1975 and 1985 are given. Emphasis is placed in distinguishing between six types of forest products: sawnwood; plywood and veneer; particle board; and wood pulp and paper. Identical treatment is given to the presentation of future estimates of production and net regional deficits. Net deficits in forest products are anticipated to be, by 1975, 50 thousand m³ of plywood and veneer; 150 thousand m³ of particle board; 400 thousand m³ of fibre board; 192 thousand tons of pulp; and 1.279 million tons of newsprint. The sawnwood sector is expected to supply all domestic demand and hopefully export to other regions of the world. Future import requirements are evaluated under the assumption that all regional producers will sell their production in Latin America, therefore, the trade deficits forecast are minimal. If, however, any producing country sells forest products outside the area, net deficits are expected to increase. Because Chile is the only net exporter of industrial forest products in Latin America, its future capacity for production is evaluated. Considerable, and in some cases total, competition to Canadian forest products in Latin America should be expected from Chilean exports. The Latin American Free Trade Association agreements are the key to the marketing success of such exports. The competitive characteristics of Canadian forest products are appraised and compared to those of other important suppliers to Latin America. Provided that the present trends in production and transportation costs remain unchanged, Canada should find no great difficulty in competing with the United States, the Baltic countries, or the Soviet Union in Latin America. Canada's position relative to Chile is also stressed and special references to the Central American common Market and Latin America Free Trade Association tariff regimes are made. It is concluded that there are excellent opportunities for Canada to increase its trade in forest products with the Latin American countries, particularly with respect to newsprint and other pulp and paper products. In order to realize this potential, however, it would be necessary for the Canadian forest industries to develop a more aggressive sales strategy in the region. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate