This Thesis investigates "short-run" economic cycles in Canadian regions over the period 1919-1973. There are a number of readily available monthly and quarterly time-series which represent the essential aspects of "general economic activity" in the various regions (British Columbia, the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes). These data are used to describe the pattern of cyclical behaviour in Canada's regions and to analyze the regional mechanism by which United States business cycles are transmitted into Canada. Two quantitative methods are used - the "episodic" method (fashioned after the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research) and the spectral analytic method. These areas of investigation are directed at two characteristics of Canadian development with which Canadian economists have long been concerned. The first is the persistence of regional disparities; the application in this study of the seldom-used monthly and quarterly time-series provides new insight to the short-run stability, and changes in stability over time, of Canada's regional economies. The second characteristic is that at least until World War I there has existed a very strong tendency for specific regions to play central roles as locations for the production of nationally-important export goods at different periods of time, suggesting an economic sensitivity between foreign, regional and national economies which is summarized by the staple theory of Canadian economic growth. However, since the First World War there has been for various reasons a considerable although gradual evolution in regional economic structure which may have altered the mechanism of cyclical transmission among regions. Moreover, modern treatments of fluctuations in the national economy over the period 1919-1973 suggest that in many ways Canadian cyclical behaviour is but a function of corresponding behaviour in the United States. When the postwar period is compared with the interwar period a decline can be observed in Canada's sensitivity to fluctuations in the general economic activity of the United States but this decline has remained largely unexplained because of the obvious complexity of the economic linkages between the two countries. By examining the evolution of sensitivity among Canada's heterogeneous regions much light is shed upon the question of declining Canadian sensitivity. The overall evidence from the regional time-series suggests that in a broad sense disparities in regional fluctuations are rather large. On balance, the Canadian regions adhere to a common, basic pattern in economic fluctuations in that episodes, found in the national indicators are usually found in the regional indicators and tend to have a similar average duration. However, there the similarity ends although there was a surprisingly uniform strength in the shorter "subcycle", especially in the postwar period. The ability of business cycles to explain the total variation in economic indicators is markedly different among regions - in British Columbia and Ontario the cycle is stronger than the regional average and in the Maritimes and Prairies it is weaker. Also, within the common regional-national pattern in fluctuations significant differences in timing are apparent; certain regions seem to consistently lead or lag the national economy. Indeed, there are significant differences between the cyclical behaviours of Ontario and Quebec even though the economic linkages which transmit cycles between the two regions are strong. During the interwar period Canadian regions were generally sensitive to business cycle fluctuations in the United States, although British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec were more closely attuned to the United States economy than either the Prairies or Maritimes. The varying levels of regional-USA correspondence indicate that the transmission of cycles from the United States does not occur similarly in all regions, although in each case the volatility in regional business cycles is less than that of the United States. The evidence for the interwar period suggests that the mechanism by which United States business cycles are transmitted into Canada is characterized by a tendency for Ontario to be sensitive to both the Rest-of-Canada and the United States; Ontario also appears to be the most volatile region, particularly during the 1930s. This result is consistent with the view that because Ontario is likely a net exporter of capital goods and consumer durables to the other regions then a cyclical instability in the marginal propensity to import in the other regions might stabilize these regions while at the same time destabilizing the Ontario economy. When the postwar and interwar periods are compared, several important changes are observed in the transmission mechanism. While cycles are still transmitted from the United States to the Canadian regions there is a noticeable decline in the significance of this sensitivity, with the largest reductions occurring in Quebec and B.C., and a smaller reduction occurring in Ontario. There have also been declines in regional correspondence to the Rest-of-Canada, which have been of approximately the same order of magnitude in each region. To some extent the weakened interregional correspondence may have resulted from weakened regional sensitivity to the United States but, nevertheless, the reduction in regional-USA sensitivities in the postwar period suggests a change in the regional mechanism of cyclical transmission, particularly in that Ontario is a stronger transmitter of United States fluctuations than formerly. Thus, the traditional view that economic cycles are transmitted from "staple-producing" regions to Central Canada, especially Ontario, has apparently become less appropriate since World War II. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

No description available.

Recent transformations within modern economies have often been discussed under the concept of “restructuring”. However this term, despite its widespread use in sociology, has little explanatory power. What is needed instead is a consideration of how restructuring has taken place. Three major theoretical positions which attempt to provide this understanding are Marxist monopoly captialism, post-fordism and post-industrialism. Each of these paradigms provides a different understanding of the nature and operation of contemporary capitalist formations. My purpose in this thesis is to determine which of these different viewpoints is most applicable to the Canadian situation. I will do so through an examination of changes in the self-employed sector of the Canadian economy since 1960. The self-employed sector, besides being of intrinsic interest because of its recent attention by politicians and the popular media, is an important testing ground for the relative validity of the above theories in the Canadian context. Each framework is consistent with a set of well-defined and contrasting predictions about what should happen to the overall size of the self-employed sector, as well as expectations about the direction of ascriptive inequality, both within the sector and in the larger society. Using time series regression procedures, declines and increases in the size of the entrepreneurial sector over the last thirty or so years are documented. In addition, the importance of increases in the sector is examined by modelling the effect of unemployment on self-employment. Predictions about ascriptive inequalities are tested through an investigation of earnings functions within the self-employed and employed populations. The results of these analyses suggest that a post-fordist understanding of the contemporary Canadian economy is most appropriate. Self-employment has clearly increased since 1960, and ascriptive inequalities, particularly by gender, have persisted throughout much ofthe latter half of this period. The implication of this is that in order to understand the larger processes shaping our economy, as well as the nature of work beyond self-employment, we are most likely to find answers in discussions about post-fordism.

This thesis represents the first attempt at the empirical estimation of Marxian categories in the Canadian economy for the 1961-76 period. The thesis also addresses the question of the relevance of Marxian economics for an understanding of contemporary capitalism. The first part of the thesis presents an overview of Marxian economics, more particularly a summary of Marx's Capital, Michio Morishima's Marx's Economics, and Ernest Mandel's Late Capitalism. The second part of the thesis reviews the conventional economic statistics in Canada over the 1961-76 period, elaborates the Marxian input-output frame-work as applied to the Canadian economy and estimates the basic Marxian categories such as variable capital, surplus value, and constant capital and the relationships between categories as expressed by the organic composition of capital, the rate of surplus value and the rate of profit. The final chapters of the thesis appraise the strengths and weaknesses of Capital and Late Capitalism and present an agenda for future research in empirical Marxian economics.

No description available.

The basic objective of this thesis is to identify some of the basic trends tending to shape the Canadian economy. The procedure followed was to examine economic theory and previous forecasting studies to determine methodological principles and apply these principles to estimate the possible future course of the Canadian economy between 1965 and 1980. No comprehensive economic theory appears to be presently developed to explain and therefore to form a complete basis for predicting the economic growth of a nation. In an effort to make economic theory manageable, many variables affecting economic growth and development such as those of sociology tend to be ignored in quantitative terms. Together with these unquantifiable variables, it is not known how many non-economic factors affect economic growth. It would seem to be these many unknown factors that tend to cause errors in the results of long range economic forecasts. Economic growth, defined as the expansion of a nation's capacity to produce, in an already advanced industrial economy, is heavily dependent on the quantity and quality of the nation's labour force, natural resources, real capital, and the technological level in the society. These basic determinants are tempered by the sociological, institutional, and consumption trends or factors within the economy. Although many articles have been written on various aspects of economic growth, the present state of knowledge does not appear to be appreciably past the theorizing stage. As no complete theory of economic growth and development appears to exist, the long range economic forecaster may gain some insights from economic theory but depend very much on his own resources to make various forecasts. The most common method to determine output appears to necessitate a population forecast from which a labour force estimate is made and then with assumptions regarding per-man productivity, an estimate for total output can be made. Sophisticated population and labour force forecasts tend to divide the population into age and sex specific cohorts and then analyze the trends within each of these cohorts. The methodology used in this thesis was based on broad estimates for various trends per thousand population. Due mainly to an expected high birth rate in Canada, the population is anticipated to increase at about 3.8 percent per year to about 25,800,000 by 1980. Of this figure, about 10,000,000 are expected to make up the labour force. The two significant trends expected in the labour force are a large influx of young people and a greater participation of women in the labour force. In this thesis, the total output was separated into agriculture, government and public administration, and commercial non-agricultural sectors. This enabled the analysis of the trends in the work force, productivity, and output in each sector to be examined. The significant trends in output expected are an increase in per-man productivity, but a declining labour force in agriculture, a rather constant productivity per man, but an increase in the total labour force in the government and public administration sector, and an increase in both the labour force and productivity per-man in the commercial non-agricultural sector. The real increase in output of the combined sectors is estimated to approximate 4.6 percent per year between 1965 and 1980 for the Canadian economy. With the total output estimated, an estimate was made as to the division of the output between capital accumulation, government expenditures, consumer expenditures, imports and exports. It was found that the division of the output between these broad sectors tended to be rather stable in relation to the gross national product. Because of this stability, future estimates for the broad categorical spending were based mainly on simple trend projections. From the historical spending patterns, it would appear difficult to justify any drastic changes in the basic spending patterns. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

Recent transformations within modern economies have often been discussed under the concept of “restructuring”. However this term, despite its widespread use in sociology, has little explanatory power. What is needed instead is a consideration of how restructuring has taken place. Three major theoretical positions which attempt to provide this understanding are Marxist monopoly captialism, post-fordism and post-industrialism. Each of these paradigms provides a different understanding of the nature and operation of contemporary capitalist formations. My purpose in this thesis is to determine which of these different viewpoints is most applicable to the Canadian situation. I will do so through an examination of changes in the self-employed sector of the Canadian economy since 1960. The self-employed sector, besides being of intrinsic interest because of its recent attention by politicians and the popular media, is an important testing ground for the relative validity of the above theories in the Canadian context. Each framework is consistent with a set of well-defined and contrasting predictions about what should happen to the overall size of the self-employed sector, as well as expectations about the direction of ascriptive inequality, both within the sector and in the larger society. Using time series regression procedures, declines and increases in the size of the entrepreneurial sector over the last thirty or so years are documented. In addition, the importance of increases in the sector is examined by modelling the effect of unemployment on self-employment. Predictions about ascriptive inequalities are tested through an investigation of earnings functions within the self-employed and employed populations. The results of these analyses suggest that a post-fordist understanding of the contemporary Canadian economy is most appropriate. Self-employment has clearly increased since 1960, and ascriptive inequalities, particularly by gender, have persisted throughout much ofthe latter half of this period. The implication of this is that in order to understand the larger processes shaping our economy, as well as the nature of work beyond self-employment, we are most likely to find answers in discussions about post-fordism. / Arts, Faculty of / Anthropology, Department of / Graduate

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.