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This thesis centers its scope on the macroeconomic implications of two contemporary issues affecting welfare: the arrival of smart technologies and global control policies as sanctions. The key element that integrates these topics into the thesis is the intergenerational perspective. The thesis employs overlapping generations (OLG) models to study how smart technologies could modify long-term economic conditions and how fiscal policies are to be thought as a global matter rather than isolated decisions. The first chapter addresses the circumstances under which smart technologies may drive people out of well-compensated work. The Chapter uses a two-period OLG model comprising two type of workers, high and low-tech, and two goods –a capital intensive one and a labor intensive one. Automation, characterized as legacy code, combines with capital to give birth to a smart machine: a robot. In turn, as automation capacity grows these robots leave future workers– both high and low-tech– worse off. The lower code relative to capital increases the high-tech worker’s compensation, savings, and capital formation. However, as code accumulates, demand for high-tech labor falls, limiting younger generations’ savings and investments. Similarly, the second chapter seeks to answer whether robots raise or lower economic well-being. The setup is once again a two-period OLG. However, in this economy two goods are produced and consumed, but only one is fully automatable. Robots may be harmful except when robotic productivity is high enough that induces a virtuous circle of rising wages, savings, and output, producing the open-ended constant growth of an AK model. Additionally, a government transfer can turn an increase in robotic productivity into a long-term welfare improvement for future generations. Finally, the third chapter develops a large-scale multi-country OLG model to address the fiscal implications of global sanctions to a country –namely Russia. The model is uniquely suited to understanding the long-term effect of different trade and fiscal regimes. The sanctioned country responds either by seizing foreign assets, or imposing capital controls, policies that might hurt the sanctioning countries. In all scenarios, except for the most benign, all generations alive at the time are made worse off in the sanctioned country.

Thesis (M.Com (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2018 / This study investigates the impact of capital flight and investment on economic growth in South Africa using time series data from 1986 to 2016. It employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure and the Granger causality test as a method of analysis. The empirical findings reveal that the variables are cointegrated which is an indication of the existence of a long run relationship among them. It was further discovered that capital flight had a negative long run relationship with economic growth while investment showed a positive long run relationship with economic growth. The terms of trade and inflation which were added to the model as control variable were also found to have a significantly positive influence on economic growth. The Granger causality indicated a bidirectional relationship between inflation and economic growth, while the terms of trade is found to have a unidirectional relationship with economic growth and capital investment respectively. The results are in line with the neo-classical growth model and the accelerator theory of investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region in the world suffering from social, political and economic problems. The study focuses on investigation of relationship of capital flight and external debt to long-term economic growth in this region. Firstly the magnitude of capital flight is computed. Using fixed effects model and random effects model we estimate the impact of external debt and capital flight on long-term growth. Moreover the time structure of debt and its source is integrated into model. Our sample consists of 24 countries from sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1989-2008. We have found that external debt has statistically significant negative impact on growth. On the other hand this impact is economically negligible. The long-term growth is also slowed down by long-term debt and by multilateral borrowing. Concerning capital flight its effect on growth is harmful as well. JEL klasifikace: F34, O47, O55, Klíčová slova: zahraniční dluh, únik kapitálu, Subsaharská Afrika, růst

Tax havens are of signicant importance in the current global economy. The wealth hidden in these havens is estimated to add up to $6000 billion and this issue is linked with wealth inequality and money laundering. Identication of tax havens differs between sources, and blacklists are often politicised. Activists, experts and academics have claimed recently that the US serves as a tax haven for foreign tax-evading households. The tax environment in the US does favor foreigners; they are for example exempt from paying taxes on interest income generated by bank deposits and it is easy to set up entities hiding the identity of the ultimate owner. The effects of two international initiatives implemented to battle tax evasion in offshore centres are studied in this paper. These are the European Savings Directive and the Common Reporting Standard, under which the US does not cooperate. Using bilateral cross-border bank deposit data, it is estimated whether tax evaders moved their wealth to the US as a result of these measures. The results of the difference-in-difference approach neither confirm nor reject the claims that the US is being used as a tax haven by foreign households. Estimates on the effects in cooperating tax havens can not rule out the possibility that the Common Reporting Standard did not have its intended effect on tax evaders.

This thesis presents estimates of capital flight from Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2017. We use the World Bank Residual method to calculate capital flight as a residual difference between sources and uses of funds in the economy. Our findings show that pre-2014, capital flight amounted to 7.5 billion USD on average. On the contrary, in 2014 our method reports unrecorded capital inflow of 10.7 billion USD, which took place in times of economic recession and military conflict in the east of Ukraine. We analyze the factors that might have caused reverse capital flight, and consider that increase in remittance flows, growth of the black currency market and new niches in the underground economy might have had an effect on unrecorded capital inflows. Finally, we study the components of the World Bank Residual method, and suggest that capital flight might have taken forms that the method doesn't encompass. Therefore, we underline the importance of accounting for gaps in the method by adding trade misinvoicing estimates to capital flight volumes. Keywords Ukraine, Capital Flight, World Bank Residual Method, Balance of Payments, Shadow Economy Range of thesis: 89 886 Characters

This thesis explores three important factors that have been central to the pursuit of economic development in developing countries, particularly those in Africa. These are capital flows, economic integration and financial crises. Chapter 1 examines the causes and consequences of capital flight in African countries. Building on standard portfolio choice model, the study links the phenomenon of capital flight to the domestic investment climate (broadly defined) and shows that African agents move their portfolios abroad as a result of a deteriorating domestic investment climate where the risk-adjusted rate of return is unfavourable. The results presented suggest that economic risk, policy distortions and the poor profitability of African investments explain the variation in capital flight. In addition, employing a PVAR and its corresponding impulse responses, the chapter shows that capital flight shocks worsen economic performance. Chapter 2 explores the (independent) effects of crises and openness on a large sample of African countries using dynamic panel techniques. Focusing on sudden stops, currency, twin and sovereign debt crises, the chapter shows that economic crises are associated with growth collapses in Africa. In contrast, economic openness is found to be beneficial to growth. More importantly, we find that, consistent with standard Mundell-Flemming type models and sticky-price open economy models, greater openness to trade and financial flows mitigates the adverse effects of crises. In the final chapter, we examine whether capital flows such as FDI, foreign aid and migrant remittances crowd-in or crowd-out domestic investment in developing countries. Applying recently developed panel cointegration techniques which can handle cross-sectional heterogeneity, serial correlation and endogeneity, we find that FDI and remittances have a positive and significant effect on domestic investment in the long-run while aid tends to act as a substitute for investment. We also conduct panel Granger causality analysis and find that the effect of FDI on investment is both transitory as well as permanent. That is, it tends to crowd-in domestic investment both in the short-run and in the long-run. We do not find any causal links between foreign aid and investment. The results show that, while remittances do not have causal effects on investment in the short-run, there is a bidirectional (causal) relationship between the two in the long-run.

Le Currency Board est un régime de change dont la recherche de la stabilité et la crédibilité monétaire fonde la régulation non pas sur une action discrétionnaire de la Banque Centrale mais sur un mécanisme d’ajustement supposé être automatique : la dynamique de l’offre monétaire suit la dynamique des réserves en devises étrangères. Cette thèse s’intéresse à l’expérience djiboutienne pour étudier le fonctionnement d’un Currency Board. La République de Djibouti possède l’unique Currency Board existant sur le continent Africain depuis 1949. Sa longévité dans un contexte de libre circulation des capitaux offre une expérience unique et extrêmement riche d’enseignements. La résilience du secteur bancaire intégralement détenu par l’étranger, les facteurs institutionnels et géopolitiques et les pratiques monétaires informelles (hawala) expliquent cette longévité. Par exemple, sans les transferts hawalas, il n’existe pas une relation univoque à long terme entre la balance des paiements et la base monétaire. L’interaction du secteur formel et informel permet d’obtenir un équilibre macro-monétaire.Une étude statique de l’ajustement d’un modèle d’équilibre général calculable financier (MEGC) comprenant le secteur informel montre que les entrées supplémentaires en devises peuvent être à l’origine d’une accumulation illimitée de réserves en devises étrangères et conduisent à une modification de l’équilibre entre le secteur marchand et non marchand. / The Currency Board is an exchange system in which the search for stability and monetary credibility is not based on a discretionary regulation of the Central Bank but on an adjustment mechanism assumed to be automatic: the dynamics of money supply follow the dynamics of foreign exchange reserves. This thesis focuses on the Djibouti experiment to study the functioning of a Currency Board. The Republic of Djibouti has the only existing Currency Board on the African continent since 1949. His longevity in a context of free movement of capital offers a unique and extremely valuable lesson. The resilience of institutional and geopolitical factors fully owned by foreign banking, and informal monetary practices (hawala transfers) explain this longevity. For instance, without the hawala transfers, there is no unambiguous relationship between the long-term dynamics of the balance of payments and the monetary base. The interaction of formal and informal sector provides a macro-monetary balance and stability.A static study of the fit of a general equilibrium (CGE) including the informal sector shows that the additional entries in currencies can be the source of an unlimited accumulation of foreign reserves and lead to a change in the balance between tradable and non-tradable sector.

Highly qualified individuals are leaving the Caribbean and relocating to the United States and other developed countries. Researchers describe this resulting flight of human capital, or brain drain, from the Caribbean as a problem which has no clear definition or immediate solution. This phenomenological study explored perceptions of government senior executives in the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) of the cause and impact of brain drain. Burns' and Bass's transformational and transactional leadership theories were used as the framework for this study. Data were collected through a demographic questionnaire and semistructured interviews with a snowball sample of 10 participants. Data were analyzed using the phenomenological method of thematic coding. Data indicated that leaders perceived a lack of opportunities for educated individuals in the USVI. Government senior executives acknowledged an imbalance in the workforce as the majority of workers are older individuals. Government senior executives recommended an increased budget allotment to educate, retain, and attract younger Virgin Islanders to decrease and prevent brain drain. These results indicate that policymakers and organizational leaders can create positive social change by creating job opportunities and improving the island's physical and social infrastructures, thus, ensuring future organizational success.

Eighty-five percent of all firms operating in Nigeria are small-and medium-sized business enterprises (SMEs) and contribute almost 55% to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Nigeria. Capital flight and other growth inhibitors pose threats to the sustainability of SMEs in Nigeria. This exploratory multiple-case study was to determine strategies SME leaders use to sustain business operations in Nigeria. The study participants consisted of 15 SME leaders from 3 regional manufacturing firms who had successfully implemented strategies to sustain SMEs in Nigeria. Bertalanffy's general systems theory and Freeman's stakeholder theory were the conceptual frameworks used in the research. The data collection processes included semistructured interviews and reviewing company documents. After analyzing the interview data and validating through member checking, 5 core themes emerged during the data analysis process: creating new markets, encouraging opportunity for sustainable growth, securing additional funding sources, employee participation in decision making, and gaining competitive advantages. The findings may promote social change among the business community leaders by identifying essential characteristics to improve the posterity of SMEs in Nigeria.