Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used as an effective tool to grasp complex systems. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, which is based on quantification of qualitative data, can be considered as a hybrid mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, and its roots can be traced back to graph theory. The basic purpose of this study is to discuss Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in methodological terms and develop suggestions for using maps drawn within two different frameworks. By this, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps applied in similar fields will be evaluated at one level. For this purpose, the thesis will utilize the data derived from maps drawn by NGO directors in Turkey. In the case study, cognitive maps are drawn around two concepts: the reputation of civil society in Turkey and its influence power. Due to their qualitative character, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is a research tool suitable for making comparative analysis. Divided into city and activity categories, the database of case study used in this thesis provided comparable data. Categorical differences are evaluated through drawing cognitive maps out of database.

Chile and Colombia are two prosperous economies among the main FDI recipients in Latin America. Both countries underwent structural reforms that favored the entrance of transnational corporations and liberalized the economies. Considering that FDI flows have been largely resource-seeking and market-seeking it seems that the main driver of FDI in these two countries, besides their resource endowment, is economic growth. The document explores the hypothesis of growth-driven FDI carrying out cointegration and Granger causality tests at aggregate and sector levels. After the introduction, Chapters 2 and 3 present the evolution of world FDI flows and a literature review. Chapters 4 and 5 discuss the policy framework in Latin America and the evolution of FDI in Chile and Colombia. Finally, Chapter 6 presents the estimations and Chapter 7 the conclusions. The findings of the analysis suggest a long-term relationship between FDI and growth and validate the hypothesis of growth-driven FDI at the macroeconomic level. However, at the sector level the existence of a long run cause-effect relationship cannot be established in most of the cases. Regarding the direction of Granger causality at this level results are heterogeneous across sectors. The main conclusion of the thesis is that economic growth does Granger cause FDI at the aggregate level, but at the sector level the causal linkage seems not to be direct. (author's abstract)

Reference is the relation held to obtain between an expression and what a speaker or thinker intends the expression to represent. Reference is a component of interpretation, the process of giving terms, sentences, and thoughts semantic content. An example of reference in a formal context involves the natural numbers, where each one can be taken to have a corresponding set-theoretic counterpart as its referent. In an informal context reference is exemplified by the relation between a name and the specific name-bearer when a speaker or thinker utters or has the name in mind. Recent debates over reference have concerned the mechanism of reference: How is it that we can refer? In informal contexts, externalists see the reference relation as explicable in terms of the salient causal relations involved in the naming of a thing, or a class of things, and the ensuing causal chains leading to a term’s use. Opponents of this view—internalists—see the reference relation as being conceptually direct, and they take the external approach to rely on untenable metaphysical assumptions about the world’s structure. Moreover, some internalists take the permutability—i.e. the consistent reinterpretation—of certain referential schemes to confound the externalist picture of reference. In this thesis I focus on the reference of theoretical terms in science, and I argue for an externalist treatment of natural kinds and other theoretical elements. Along the way I offer a defense of the externalist’s pre-theoretic metaphysical assumptions and emphasize their central role in the interpretation of scientific languages. The externalist approach acknowledges the necessary constraints on reference-fixing that account for the schemes we employ, and this, I argue, confounds the permutation strategy.

This paper analyzes empirically the effect of crude oil price change on the economic growth of Indian-Subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). We use a multivariate Vector Autoregressive analysis followed by Wald Granger causality test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Wald Granger causality test results show that only India’s economic growth is significantly affected when crude oil price decreases. Impact of crude oil price increase is insignificantly negative for all three countries during first year. In second year, impact is negative but smaller than first year for India, negative but larger for Bangladesh and positive for Pakistan.

One of the most important objectives for any countries is to sustain high economic growth. Even though there are main factors that affect economic growth, the concern of this paper is only about inflation. The relationship between economic growth and inflation is debatable. The first objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between inflation and economic growth. This study uses panel data which includes 13 SSA countries from 1969 to 2009. To analyze the data the model is formed by taking economic growth as dependent variable and four variables (i.e. inflation, investment, population and initial GDP) as independent variables. The result indicates that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and inflation. This study is also examined the causality relationship between economic growth and inflation by using panel Granger causality test. Panel granger causality test shows that inflation can be used in order to predict growth for all countries in the sample, while the opposite it is only true for Congo, Dep. Rep and Zimbabwe.

Reference is the relation held to obtain between an expression and what a speaker or thinker intends the expression to represent. Reference is a component of interpretation, the process of giving terms, sentences, and thoughts semantic content. An example of reference in a formal context involves the natural numbers, where each one can be taken to have a corresponding set-theoretic counterpart as its referent. In an informal context reference is exemplified by the relation between a name and the specific name-bearer when a speaker or thinker utters or has the name in mind. Recent debates over reference have concerned the mechanism of reference: How is it that we can refer? In informal contexts, externalists see the reference relation as explicable in terms of the salient causal relations involved in the naming of a thing, or a class of things, and the ensuing causal chains leading to a term’s use. Opponents of this view—internalists—see the reference relation as being conceptually direct, and they take the external approach to rely on untenable metaphysical assumptions about the world’s structure. Moreover, some internalists take the permutability—i.e. the consistent reinterpretation—of certain referential schemes to confound the externalist picture of reference. In this thesis I focus on the reference of theoretical terms in science, and I argue for an externalist treatment of natural kinds and other theoretical elements. Along the way I offer a defense of the externalist’s pre-theoretic metaphysical assumptions and emphasize their central role in the interpretation of scientific languages. The externalist approach acknowledges the necessary constraints on reference-fixing that account for the schemes we employ, and this, I argue, confounds the permutation strategy.

Decision-making is something we do every day, and is a broad research area that impacts disciplines spanning from economics to philosophy to psychology. The question of rational behavior has been of particular interest (Colman, 2003). A specific area of decision-making where rationality has been investigated is game theory, which deals with the interactions of two or more opponents in a competitive situation (e.g., von Neumann and Morgenstern, 1944). The dominant theoretical perspective in this area claims individuals try to maximize expected utility when making decisions (e.g., Luce and Raiffa, 1957). An alternative theory has been put forth to better explain experimental deviations from utility theory and rationality. Causal decision theory is based on the assumption that individuals incorporate causal knowledge in decisions, while trying to maximize causal utility (e.g., Sloman, 2005). The present study delineated these theoretical approaches as strategies that can be utilized in game theoretic situations (based on a strategy choice perspective in deductive reasoning developed by Robinson and Hertzog, 2005). The role of causal models, strategy choice, and temporal assumptions were investigated. In both experiments, there was support for causal decision theory and the primary prediction that a direct causal model leads to more cooperation in competitive situations. Conversely, those individuals that were given (or assumed) a common cause model chose to cooperate less. Qualitative coding and strategy self-reports aligned with these findings and according to predictions. These differences in cooperation based on causal models also held across items for the same participant. Finally, causal information superseded temporal cues in affecting behavior.

Before a government makes economic policies, it must first fully understand the causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This study uses Chow Test, Unit Root Test, Co-integration Test, Vector Autoregressive Model, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition to examine whether the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth for Taiwan and Korea had changed after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, in order to understand whether their economic policies have changed in response. Taiwan¡¦s energy consumption and GDP had one-way effect ¡V that is, her energy consumption affected GDP but not vice versa ¡V while that of South Korea exhibited a two-way relationship. However, after the Crisis, such relationship for Taiwan had changed to that of two-way. The relationship between energy consumption and GDP for South Korea remained two-way after the Crisis.

This study proposes one plausible procedure to address two methodological issues, which are common in micro- and macro- econometric analyses, for the full realization of research potential brought by recently available high dimensional data. To address the issue of how to infer the causal structure from empirical regularities, graphical causal models are proposed to inductively infer causal structure from non-temporal and non-experimental data. However, the (probabilistic) stability condition for the graphical causal models can be violated for high dimensional data, given that close co-movements and thus near deterministic relations are oftentimes observed among variables in high dimensional data. Aggregation methods are proposed as one possible way to address this matter, allowing one to infer causal relationships among disaggregated variables based on aggregated variables. Aggregation methods also are helpful to address the issue of how to incorporate a large information set into an empirical model, given that econometric considerations, such as degrees-of-freedom and multicollinearity, require an economy of parameters in empirical models. However, actual aggregation requires legitimate classifications for interpretable and consistent aggregation. Based on the generalized condition for the consistent and interpretable aggregation derived from aggregation theory and statistical dimensional methods, we propose plausible methodological procedure to consistently address the two related issues of causal inference and actual aggregation procedures. Additional issues for empirical studies of micro-economics and macro-economics are also discussed. The proposed procedure provides an inductive guidance for the specification issues among the direct, inverse, and mixed demand systems and an inverse demand system, which is statistically supported, is identified for the consumer behavior of soft drink consumption. The proposed procedure also provides ways to incorporate large information set into an empirical model with allowing structural understanding of U.S. macro-economy, which was difficult to obtain based on the previously used factor augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) framework. The empirical results suggest the plausibility of the proposed method to incorporate large information sets into empirical studies by inductively addressing multicollinearity problem in high dimensional data.

This dissertation investigates the pricing behaviors of two major energy commodities, U.S. natural gas and crude oil, using times series models. It examines the relationships between U.S. natural gas price variations and changes in market fundamentals within a two-state Markov-switching framework. It is found that the regime-switching model does a better forecasting job in general than the linear fundamental model without regime-switching framework, especially in the case of 1-step-ahead forecast. Studies are conducted of the dynamics between crude oil price and U.S. dollar exchange rates. Empirical tests are applied to both full sample (1986—2010) and subsample (2002—2010) data. It is found that causality runs in both directions between the oil and the dollar. Meanwhile, a theoretical 5-country partial dynamic portfolio model is constructed to explain the dynamics between oil and dollar with special attention to the roles of China and Russia. It is shown that emergence of China‘s economy enhances the linkage between oil and dollar due to China's foreign exchange policy. Further research is dedicated to the role of speculation in crude oil and natural gas markets. First a literature review on theory of speculation is conducted. Empirical studies on speculation in commodity markets are surveyed, with special focus on energy commodity market. To test the theory that speculation may affect commodity prices by exaggerating the signals sent by market fundamentals, this essay utilizes the forecast errors from the first essay to investigate the forecasting ability of speculators' net long positions in the market. Limited evidence is provided to support the bubble theory in U.S. natural gas market. In conclusion, this dissertation explores both fundamentals and speculators' roles in the U.S. natural gas and global crude oil markets. It is found that market fundamentals are the major driving forces for the two energy commodities price booms seen during the past several years.