In the paper we examine the childbearing trends in Iceland during 1982-2013 by analyzing theprogression to parities one, two and three, as well as changes in the birth spacing patterns over theperiod. Emphasis are placed on the years after the turn of the century. In the first decade of the 21stcentury two potentially influential events took place in Iceland in relation to subsequent fertilityoutcomes; a reform was made to the parental leave scheme between 2001 and 2003 and a deepeconomic crisis came ashore in late 2008. Special attention is given to the trends following thesetwo critical junctures. As well as looking at the parity progressions over time we also investigate theevidence of sex preferences for children among Icelandic parents. In three of the other four Nordiccountries a preference for daughters has been found. As Iceland shares the same egalitarianemphasis within a universal welfare regime it is interesting to investigate if the same applies toIceland. Individual longitudinal register data are used in the calculations; the dataset consists of thetotal female population born in Iceland between 1941 and 1997. The data are of high quality and arestored and processed at Statistics Iceland. The findings are presented in the form of relative risksand are derived from piecewise constant exponential models. In terms of findings, the first birthtrends are characterized by postponement of motherhood at the younger ages and trends ofrecuperation at the older ages. The second and third birth rates indicate that the reform in theparental leave had positive influence on continued childbearing but the elevation in the rates mayalso be associated with the upswing in the business cycle at the same time. The second and thirdbirth rates did not fall at the onset of the economic crisis but three years into the recession. Finally,estimations indicate that Icelandic parents have a preference for having daughters.

Objective: This thesis examines the timing of having the first child in relation to when Swedish men and women leave the parental home. The aim is to explain if any childbearing trends can be detected based on whether one leaves the parental home at a younger or older relative age than the current age norms. The timing of having the first child might be affected by either a speed up/slow down effect (one continues to experience other stages of adulthood faster or slower relative to people of the same age) or an age-norm effect (one tries to counter-act deviation from the home-leaving norm by speeding up or delaying childbearing to align with people of the same age).   Method and Data: Event history analysis is applied using a multivariate piece-wise constant hazard model. The data comes from Swedish register data based on records of the entire Swedish population between 1 January 1953 and 31 December 2012.   Results: The results indicate that Swedish women who leave the parental home younger than the norm run a greater risk of having their first child sooner after leaving the parental home relative to women of the same age. Swedish men who leave the parental home younger than the norm, on the other hand, run a greater risk of having the first child later after leaving the parental home relative to men of the same age. Swedish men who leave the parental home later than the norm run a greater risk of having their first child sooner after leaving the parental home relative to men of the same age while the opposite is true for women. However, the effects of timing of leaving the parental home are relatively small, which can be explained by the very long and stable mean durations found. The peak durations of intensities, i.e. number of years between leaving the parental home and having the first child, for men and women can be found after 10–12 years. The peak durations of intensities are remarkably similar between the genders.   Conclusion: Swedish women who leave the parental home earlier than the norm are more likely to experience a speed-up effect in terms of childbearing and a slow down effect when leaving the parental home later than the norm. Thus, women stick to breaking the normative timing of the life course events once they have started. Swedish men, on the other hand, are more likely to try and catch up with age norms and instead postpone having the first child when leaving the parental home earlier than the norm and speed up having a child when leaving the parental home later than the norm. Men are thus more likely to time having children with men of the same age. / Stockholm University SIMSAM Node for Demographic Research