States under threat may choose to initiate war not only because their interests are hurt, but also because they want to establish or defend their credibility, so that they do not have to fight later wars. This dissertation looks at deterrence situations where the defender of the status quo responds to challenges with force and links its concern with credibility to the decision. When states are expressly worried about the repercussions of backing down, they are more likely to fight. By shining a spotlight on the defender rather than the challenger, this study enriches the discussion on why and how deterrence fails. By linking the decision to fight to a concern about reputation, this study also provides a new framework for analyzing deterrence and foreign policy. In addition, the dissertation joins the debate on Chinese use of force. All three case studies cast China as the defender that ultimately decided to fight the challenger decisively. In each case, aside from the real and perceived security interests at stake, China's concern with its reputation for resolve contributed to the decision. The reputation for resolve became a security interest in and of itself, serving to dispel future infringements and well worth fighting for. China was particularly worried about its reputation when it feared a collusion of foreign and domestic enemies and sought to internalize the lesson that fighting now means enjoying peace later. This study uses in-depth, qualitative case studies with a heavy reliance on textural analysis of first and secondary sources. The three case studies are China's intervention in the Korean War in 1950, China's border war with India in 1962, and Sino-Soviet clashes in 1969. While only three case studies are selected, they are structured along the same questions on deterrence and credibility to focus the reader's attention on the hypothesis. The case studies are selected because they were robust tests; they were all drawn-out deterrence situations in which Chinese leaders pondered explicitly on the role of credibility.

Although US remained the strongest military power in international system after the Cold War, it was still deeply concerned how to retain its military dominance in the longer term, that could guarantee US further predominance in solving major international issues. Three US military transformation initiatives, namely the transformation of the US conventional forces, the development of missile defence systems and long-range conventional precision-strike capability, are considered as the main instruments to maintain US military dominance in the future. Considering that for Russia and China, which are perceived as the major US opponents, the US military transformation emerged as a big challenge, the research problem is formulated as an attempt to understand whether and how the US military transformation poses a threat to Russia and China’s security and in turn, how this affects Russian and Chinese security policy towards the United States. Accordingly, the goal of the dissertation is to examine the impact of the US military transformation on Russian and Chinese security policy since the end of the Cold War and until 2010. The offence-defence balance theory provides the theoretical and analytical basis for the research. The results of the research have shown that US has managed to achieve an offensive advantage in the conventional offence-defence balance against Russia and China and has had a real possibility to gain such an advantage in the nuclear offense-defence balance... [to full text] / Po Šaltojo karo JAV išliko stipriausia kariniu požiūriu valstybė, tačiau, nepaisant to, JAV buvo itin susirūpinusi savo karinio pranašumo išlaikymu ateityje, kuris leistų užtikrinti tolesnę JAV lyderystę sprendžiant svarbiausius tarptautinius klausimus. JAV karinio pranašumo išlaikymo priemonėmis po Šaltojo karo tapo trys karinės JAV tranformacijos iniciatyvos: konvencinių pajėgų transformacija, priešraketinių gynybos sistemų ir ilgo nuotolio tikslaus konvencinio smūgio pajėgumų kūrimas. Atsižvelgiant į tai, kad Rusijai ir Kinijai – oponuojančioms JAV valstybėms, JAV karinė transformacija tapo dideliu iššūkiu, disertacijoje tyrimo problema apibrėžta kaip siekis suprasti, ar ir kaip JAV karinė transformacija kelia grėsmę Rusijos ir Kinijos saugumui, ir kaip tai veikia Rusijos ir Kinijos saugumo politiką JAV atžvilgiu. Atitinkamai darbo tikslas buvo ištirti JAV karinės transformacijos poveikį Rusijos ir Kinijos saugumo politikai nuo Šaltojo karo pabaigos iki 2010 m. Puolimo-gynybos balanso teorija buvo pasirinkta kaip disertacijos tyrimo teorinė ir analitinė prieiga. Disertacijos tyrimas parodė, kad, nepaisant įgyto konvencinio puolimo pranašumo ir realios galimybės siekti branduolinio puolimo pranašumo, JAV nevykdė agresyvios saugumo politikos Rusijos ir Kinijos atžvilgiu. Rusija ir Kinija jautriai reagavo į JAV karinę transformaciją, stengdamosi įgyti konvencinį puolimo pranašumą, išsaugoti branduolinį puolimo-gynybos balansą, o taip pat užkirsti kelią JAV susikurti... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]