Nach Abschluss des KliWES-Teilprojektes »Säule B – ArcEGMO« liegen sachsenweite Wasserhaushaltsdaten für den Ist-Zustand (1961–2010) und ausgewählte Zukunftsszenarien (2011–2100) des Klimas und der Landnutzung vor. Der vorliegende Bericht ergänzt die als interaktive Karten erfolgte Veröffentlichung von Projektergebnissen im Wasserhaushaltsportal Sachsen. Diese sollen vorrangig Umweltverwaltungen, wissenschaftliche Einrichtungen sowie Ingenieur- und Planungsbüros bei der Bearbeitung regionaler Fragestellungen der Anpassung an Klimawandelfolgen unterstützen.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Fala-se hoje muito sobre as possÃveis mudanÃas climÃticas como resultado das emissÃes de gases na atmosfera. Embora nÃo seja de comum acordo, grande parte da comunidade cientÃfica acredita que acontecerà uma elevaÃÃo na temperatura mÃdia global, o qual pode provocar, por exemplo, um aumento mÃdio nos nÃveis dos oceanos. Associada a isto, hà tambÃm um consenso de que haverà significativas transformaÃÃes no regime pluvial e de evaporaÃÃo em vÃrias partes do planeta. Entretanto, a quantificaÃÃo dessas mudanÃas, em locais especÃficos, ainda necessitam de mais estudos, os quais permitirÃo avaliaÃÃes mais conclusivas a respeito do tema. Sendo assim, o presente trabalho procurou jogar um pouco de luz neste tema e, considerando alguns cenÃrios de alteraÃÃo nos padrÃes de precipitaÃÃo e evaporaÃÃo (considerando a evaporaÃÃo lÃquida = E-P), avaliou os impactos destas mudanÃas climÃticas na vazÃo regularizada de reservatÃrios no Nordeste semi-Ãrido, cujos rios apresentam altos coeficiente de variaÃÃo dos deflÃvios anuais. Observou-se que em rios menos variÃveis â CV iguais a 0,6 e 0,8 â à necessÃrio que a lÃmina lÃquida (EL) aumente 60% para que o reservatÃrio perca cerca de 10% de sua vazÃo regularizada. Jà para rios de maior variabilidade - CV iguais a 1,4 e 1,6 â a lÃmina lÃquida precisaria de um aumento de apenas 30%, para que o reservatÃrio fosse objeto desta mesma reduÃÃo. Concluiu-se, portanto, que como a maioria dos reservatÃrios do Nordeste semi-Ãrido localiza-se em rios que apresentam coeficientes de variaÃÃo dos deflÃvios anuais em torno de 1,2 a 1,6, uma atenÃÃo maior deverà ser dada aos mesmos, uma vez que se mostraram bastante sensÃveis as variaÃÃes climÃticas. / It is much talked nowadays about the possible climatic changes as a result of the gas emission on the atmosphere. Although it is not a common agreement, a great part of the scientific community believe that an elevation of the measured global temperature will occur, which can provoke, for example, a medium increase on the ocean levels. Associated to this, there is also a consensus that significant transformations will happen on the pluvial and evaporation regimen around the world. However, the quantification of these changes, on specific locations, is still needed more studies, which can allow more conclusive evaluations about the theme. With that been said, this study tried to put some light on this theme, and considering some scenarios of alteration on the precipitation patterns and evaporation (considering liquid evaporation = E-P) it was evaluated the impact of these climatic changes in reservoirs yield at Northeast Semi-Arid of Brazil. whose rivers present high coefficient of variation of the annual emanations. It was observed that in rivers less variable â CV equal to 0,6 and 0,8 â it is necessary that the net evaporation EL increase 60% so that the reservoir can lose about 10% of its regularized outflow. But for rivers with high variability â CV equal to 1,4 and 1,6 â the net evaporation â would need a increase of just 30% so that the reservoir could be the object of the same reduction. It was concluded that, as most of the half-barren northeastâs reservoirs are located on rivers that present variation coefficients of the annual emanations in lathe of 1,2 to 1,6 , a greater attention should be given to these, since it showed sensible enough to the climatic variations.

Temperature and precipitation are the most important indicators of climate change. Especially for the basins fed by snow, the shifts of melting to earlier times, affects the streamflow. Increase in temperature causes to shifts of melting of snow to shift to earlier times so that hydrologic regime of the river system changes, and leads to changes in climatic conditions of the region. In this study the shifts of snow melting times are analyzed for the selected 15 streamflow stations located in Euphrates, Tigris, Aras, and &Ccedil / oruh basins in Eastern Anatolia of Turkey along with period from 1970 to 2010. The shifts in snowmelt runoff are determined by Center Time (CT) method. Meteorological stations representing the stream gauge stations regarding the basin characteristics are also selected to be used in the analyses. In order to relate CT shifts to temperature and precipitation changes, trend analysis are applied to temperature, precipitation and streamflow data. In addition to these, days with daily average temperature less than freezing and wet days below freezing until CT for each station pair between stream gauge and meteorological stations and each year are also analyzed. These days till CT within a year for each station pair can be indirectly linked to snowy days and accumulated snow amount. Complete analyses show significant warming at each station in the region and no important trends in annual precipitation. However at a few stations meaningful seasonal changes in precipitation are observed. Regional warming and associated changes in precipitation and snowmelt runoff cause significant shifts to earlier times of snowmelt runoff. In the region eight out of fifteen stream gauge stations in Euphrates, Tigris and Aras basins showed significant time shifts according to statistical trend tests.