Stakeholder driven research has been advocated to link hydroclimatic research with the needs and capabilities of groups affected by climatic variability and related governmental policies. A stakeholder driven research agenda was designed, focusing on hydroclimatic forecasts and their assessment, within the context of an interdisciplinary integrated assessment of the vulnerability of diverse stakeholders to climate variability in the U.S. Southwest. Water management, ranching, and wildland fire management stakeholders were solicited for their input. Their perspectives about hydroclimatic variability and opportunities for using hydroclimatic forecasts differed widely. Many individuals were uninformed or had mistaken impressions about seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts, but understood practical differences between forecasts for "normal" conditions and "nonforecasts" having total uncertainty. Uncertainty about the accuracy of forecasts precludes their more effective use, as does difficulty in distinguishing between "good" and "bad" information. A survey of hydroclimatic forecasting confirmed stakeholder perceptions and identified improvements in hydrologic predictability that could be rapidly incorporated into current operations. Users faced a complex and evolving mix of forecasts available from many sources, but few corresponding interpretive materials or reviews of past performance. Contrasts between the state of meteorologic and hydrologic forecasting were notable, especially in the former's greater operational flexibility and more rapid incorporation of new observations and research products. The research agenda uses predictions as the linkage between stakeholders and scientific advances in observations (e.g., snow conditions) or process understanding. The agenda focuses on two areas: (1) incremental improvement of seasonal water supply forecasts, and (2) improvement of stakeholder perceptions of forecasts through ongoing forecast assessments. A forecast evaluation framework was developed that provides consistency in assessing different forecast products, in ways that that allow individuals to access results at the level they are capable of understanding, while offering opportunity for shifting to more sophisticated criteria. Using the framework, seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the National Weather Service were evaluated, considering regions, lead times, seasons, and criteria relevant to different stakeholders. Evaluations that reflect specific user perspectives provide different assessments of forecast performance. Frequently updated, targeted forecast evaluations should be available to potential users.

“Stratospheric Sulfate Injection” (SSI) is an emergent technology that is meant to reduce global warming by blocking incoming sunlight, in particular, by injecting sulfate particles into the stratosphere. Once SSI gets started, it is necessary to keep injecting every 1-2 years; otherwise, the cooling effect will disappear and there will be sudden and potentially catastrophic global warming. Even though the effects are global, SSI can be deployed by a single state or small group of states acting alone and likely would be deployed in this way. There is currently no consensus among lawyers and judges as to whether such “unilateral” deployment of SSI would be legal under international law. The profession therefore requires a comprehensive study of the legal implications of unilateral deployment of SSI. To fill this gap, my thesis asks, “Does unilateral deployment of SSI breach international law?” Examining theories of international law, legal and political philosophy, and the science of SSI, I argue that deploying SSI unilaterally breaches a fundamental jus cogens (“compelling law”) norm of international law: the inherent right of self-defence. This norm entails a prohibition on what I call “perfect capture,” which happens when a foreign state appropriates and permanently monopolizes a domestic state’s responsibility to protect its population. Perfect capture violates the inherent right of self-defence because it represents a state’s renunciation of its capacity to make decisions affecting the survival of its population. Thus, insofar as it constitutes perfect capture, unilateral deployment of SSI grants a single state or small group of states more arbitrary power over the existential conditions of other states than is compatible with the premises of a pluralist international legal order. / Graduate

No description available.

This case study explores climate change knowledge among a group of youth in Durban who participated in the seventh Conference of Youth (COY7). The conference was held 25th-27th of November 2011 in Durban in conjunction with the 17th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The study examines how they understand the concept of climate change; what inspired them to take an interest in climate change issues; what sources of information on climate change that have been influential for them; and how their participation in the conference influenced their knowledge and commitment. The findings reveal that many different sources have been influential for providing climate change knowledge and engendering commitment among the youth. While peers are particularly important as a source of initial interest, the influential sources of knowledge are more varied. Two main sources were evident in this study: sources provided by more structured settings like university and written materials, and sources obtained through more socials settings, such as interactions with people and conferences and seminars. According to the findings, COY7 was more important for the youth as a source of inspiration and motivation than as a source of new knowledge. The case study reveals the importance of diversity in sources of information about climate change among the youth. / Thesis (M.Dev.Studies)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2012.

As many countries turn to biomass for energy production to combat climate change, the effects on the global forest products industry remains for the most part, unknown. Although the individual studies of this thesis stand on their own, the results share a common theme of examining economic issues surrounding a greater reliance on energy derived from forests. Chapter 1 presents the development and application of a non-linear programming model of global forest product trade used to assess the economic impact of an increase in global bioenergy demand. The results of the study indicate that increased global bioenergy demand will result in increased production of lumber and plywood, but outputs for fibreboard, particleboard and pulp will decline. In addition, renewable energy policies promoting bioenergy cause wood pellet prices to rise which could undermine the effectiveness of such policies. The European Union (EU) has implemented the most aggressive renewable energy policies in the world, and as a result, has quickly become a global leader in bioenergy production. To meet their targets, the EU is expected to import an unprecedented amount of fibre from timber rich regions, causing ripple effects throughout the global forest products industry. Chapter 2 discusses such EU policies, utilizing the developed global forest products trade model. Results indicate increased EU bioenergy demand is welfare enhancing to the global forest products industry as a whole, although there are winners and losers. Chapter 3 presents another important issue regarding increased bioenergy demand, that is, the supply of fibre is a limiting factor for its viability as an energy source. The chapter discusses the development and application of an electrical grid model of Alberta that is linked to a fibre transportation model of Alberta and British Columbia. Results show that proximity to a wood pellet producer is critical in the economic viability of retrofitting coal-fired power plants to co-fire with biomass. Finally, the increasing reliance on bioenergy as a fossil fuel substitute depends critically on the acceptance that CO2 release associated with combustion is offset by the re-growth of the forest. Chapter 4 provides a discussion of this issue, sighting the significance of the timeline in CO2 release and absorption. If we deem climate change an urgent matter, we may give more weight to current reductions in atmospheric CO2, eroding the carbon neutrality of biomass. / Graduate / 0501 / 0503

The overall goal of this study was to examine the hydrological and geochemical linkages between the contributing landscape and small tundra lakes affected by shoreline retrogressive thaw slumping (SRTS) in the upland region north east of Inuvik, NT. In 2007, 2008, and 2009, detailed hydroclimatological and geochemical data were obtained from a pair of representative tundra lake catchments (Lake 5A: Control; Lake 5B: Affected by SRTS). This was supplemented with less detailed data obtained from 10 regional small tundra lake catchments (control and affected by SRTS). The hydrology and geochemistry of Lake 5A and Lake 5B exhibited strong seasonal variability that was characterized by spring snowmelt. For the three study years, Lake Level (LL) peaked during spring snowmelt, when the addition of melt water from the contributing landscape led to a rapid rise in LL that was enhanced by snow and ice damming the outlet channel. The addition of this relatively dilute runoff water led to a decrease in the concentration of most major ions and nutrients in the study lakes over the spring months. Notably, the concentration of nutrients increased at the beginning of spring snowmelt, due to the mobilization of surficial organic materials by runoff, before decreasing as runoff to the lake became more diluted. Recent changes in key hydroclimatic factors have likely affected the hydrology and geochemistry of the study lakes. The examination of a suite of hydroclimatic indicators, derived from historical climate data, indicated that the annual May 1st snowpack in Tuktoyaktuk has been increasing at a significant rate over the past half century. Furthermore, detailed snow survey data suggested that the capture of snow by SRTS-affected terrain increases the snowmelt contributions to small tundra lakes. An increase in the contribution of snowmelt inputs to the lake water balance could lead to a higher peak LL and more dilution of lake water. In addition to hydro-climatic drivers, the geochemistry of the study lakes was also driven by SRTS. SRTS-affected lakes had significantly higher concentrations of major ions than unaffected study lakes, due to the addition of relatively ion-rich runoff from SRTS-affected terrain during the spring and summer months. The outlet channels draining the SRTS-affected study lakes also had significantly higher concentrations of major ions than that of the unaffected study lakes, due to the addition of relatively ion-rich lake water, which suggests that SRTS-affected lakes could be a source of major ions to downstream lakes. / Graduate

Graduation date: 1998

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 84-91). / 91 leaves, bound 29 cm

Thesis (PhD)--University of South Australia, 2000

In this study the natural variability of Southern Ocean water masses on interannual to centennial time scales is investigated using a long-term integration of the Commonwealth Scientic and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) coupled climate model. We focus our attention on analysing the variability of Antarctic IntermediateWater (AAIW), Circumpolar DeepWater (CDW), and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). We present an analysis of the dominant modes of temperature and salinity (T - S) variability within these water masses. Climate signals are detected and analysed as they get transmitted into the interior from the water mass formation regions. Eastward propagating wavenumber-1, -2, and -3 signals are identied using a complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis along the core of the AAIW layer. Variability in air-sea heat uxes and ice meltwater rates are shown by heat and salt budget analyses to control variability of Antarctic Surface Water where density surfaces associated with AAIW outcrop. The dominant mode in the CDW layer is found to exhibit an interbasin-scale of variability originating from the North Atlantic, and propagating southward into the Southern Ocean. Salinity dipole anomalies appear to propagate around the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with the strengthening and weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. In the AABW layer, T - S anomalies are shown to originate from the southwestern Weddell Sea, driven by salinity variations and convective overturning in the region. It is also demonstrated that the model exhibits spatial patterns of T - S variability for the most part consistent with limited observational record in the Southern Hemisphere. However, some observations of decadal T - S changes are found to be beyond that seen in the model in its unperturbed state. We further assess sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes in the Indian Ocean on interannual time scales in the CSIRO model and in reanalysis data. The emergence of a meridional SST dipole during years of southwest Western Australian rainfall extremes is shown to be connected to a large-scale mode of Indian Ocean climate variability. The evolution of the dipole is controlled by variations in atmospheric circulation driving anomalous latent heat uxes with wind-driven ocean transport moderating the impact of evaporation and setting the conditions favourable for the next generation phase of an opposite dipole.