Thesis(M.Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / The reality is that the South African GDP is not within the range of what is projected the previous years. As the proposed expenditure for 2017/18 totals R1.56 trillion according to the 2017 budget speech, the treasury also need to reduce spending by a total of R26 billion over the next two years. Economic growth continues to be below expected levels in South Africa and unemployment is very high. The relationship between inflation, economic growth and government expenditure is important in both developing and developed countries. Like in any other economy in the world, the South African government’s most important role is to promote economic growth, and also to sustain high economic growth with low inflation (Brand South Africa, 2015). The study is completely based on secondary data. The methodology is quantitative which includes econometrical tools. For this purpose, this study applied Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron unit root tests, Choice of the lag length, Johansen-Juselius Co-integration analysis, VEC Granger Causality/Block exogeneity Wald test, Vector Error Correlation Model, Diagnostic tests, Stability tests, Impulse response and Choleski/Variance decomposition methodology. From the findings, the results derived by applying Johansen-Juselius Co-integration indicate that there is a longterm relationship between the rate of inflation, economic growth and government expenditure, and also that both government expenditure and inflation impact negatively on economic growth. The results indicate that government expenditure encourages inflation impacting negatively on investment and the country’s GDP. Granger causality runs jointly from all three variables inflation, government expenditure and investment to the dependent variable (economic growth)

Magister Commercii - MCom / The objective of this study is to investigate the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid in the case of South Africa. This study has not only focused on sectoral exports for the period 1990-2011; but it has also examined total exports for the period extending from 1970 to 2011. Using quarterly data and time series econometric techniques of co-integration and Granger-causality tests over the two set of periods, the key findings of the study are as follows: (i) At the aggregate level (using total exports): the technique of co-integration suggests that total exports and GDP moved together in the long-run, though deviations from the steady state might happen in the short-run. Furthermore, Granger causality tests inferred from the Vector Error Correction model reveal that the direction of causality between export and GDP growth is bidirectional. (ii) At the sectoral level (using the main component of exports): export-growth link emerges as a long-run behavioural relationship since a co-integrating relation was found among output and agricultural, manufactured and mining exports. This relationship demonstrates that manufactured exports have the greatest positive impact on output growth. (iii) Sectoral level Granger-causality tests based on ECM reveal the existence of a long run causality running from manufactured exports to GDP; whereas the short-run causality runs from manufactured and mining exports to GDP. However, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger test confirms only short-run causality from manufactured exports to GDP. In both cases, there is evidence of a uni-directional causality from exports to GDP.The above results show that the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid for South Africa. This implies that exports, particularly manufactured and mining exports play a key role in driving economic growth. Hence, the key policy implication of these results is that, measures which aim at stimulating production for exports and shifting the content of exports will meaningfully contribute to the improvement of GDP growth and employment prospects in South Africa.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to analyze the development of the prices of real estate in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into three main parts. The first one deals with the theoretical introduction to valuation of the real estate. Moreover, the thesis presents the current development of the prices of real estate on the Czech market. The last part focuses on co-integration analysis, within which an ADL model is created. This model serves as a base for an error correction model, which describes short-term as well as long-term relations within the time series. The explanatory variables are gross domestic product, consumer price index, the amount of finished apartments, interest rate of mortgage loans, common rate of unemployment, and average gross monthly income. It is the one-equation model which describes the relation among the already mentioned explanatory variables and the HPI index. analysis of the development of the prices of real estate

<p>The objective of this study is to empirically examine the export-led growth hypothesis in Mozambique using quarterly time series data over the period of 1987-2004, applying a co-integration analysis, Engle and Granger&rsquo / s (1987) Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger causality test. The paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth and othe explanatory variables, such as real exports, imports, labour force, gross capital formation, terms of trade, civil war and natural disasters (the last two as dummy variables).</p>

<p>The objective of this study is to empirically examine the export-led growth hypothesis in Mozambique using quarterly time series data over the period of 1987-2004, applying a co-integration analysis, Engle and Granger&rsquo / s (1987) Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger causality test. The paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth and othe explanatory variables, such as real exports, imports, labour force, gross capital formation, terms of trade, civil war and natural disasters (the last two as dummy variables).</p>

Magister Economicae - MEcon / The objective of this study is to empirically examine the export-led growth hypothesis in Mozambique using quarterly time series data over the period of 1987-2004, applying a co-integration analysis, Engle and Granger(1987) Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger causality test. The paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth and othe explanatory variables, such as real exports, imports, labour force, gross capital formation, terms of trade, civil war and natural disasters (the last two as dummy variables). / South Africa

Le monde est actuellement confronté à une transition du marché de l'énergie qui est influencée notamment par la dynamique de la croissance économique globale, les négociations relatives aux changements climatiques et des prix de plus en plus volatils. Cette évolution rapide des réglementations et de la macro-économie transformera les conditions de la demande d'énergie, obligeant les gouvernements à acquérir un ensemble croissant d'outils quantitatifs pour mieux évaluer les résultats de leurs politiques fiscales. Cette thèse aborde cette problématique en analysant, par une approche basée sur les élasticités, les différentes facettes de la demande d'énergie dans le but d'achever une consommation énergétique durable. Cette approche est complémentée par l'analyse par grappes, la décomposition structurelle ainsi que par diverses outils économétriques appliques conjointement à l'échelle mondiale et nationale. Une attention particulière est faite sur la modélisation de la demande des marchés subsidiés notamment des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe Arabique / The world is currently witnessing a transition in the energy scene that is significantly characterized by global economic growth dynamics, climate change negotiations and volatile energy prices. Rapidly evolving regulatory and macro-economic environments heavily impact on the demand-side of energy, forcing governments to acquire an ever-increasing set of quantitative tools to better assess the results of their taxation policies.This thesis addresses some of these issues by analyzing various facets of energy demand in order to generate sensible demand and price elasticities with real-life applications in sustainable energy management. For that purpose, a combination of cluster, decomposition and multiple econometric analysis is undertaken at global, regional and country-specific levels for households complemented by a policy analysis. A special focus is made on modeling consumer demand behavior for resource-rich economies of the Gulf Cooperation Countries, and the potential impact of removing residential electricity subsidies on the net societal welfare of Saudi Arabia.