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The Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth on South Africa : An econometric analysis / Seipati MogoeMogoe, Seipati January 2013 (has links)
International trade is one of the leading discussions taken not only in South Africa
but worldwide on daily basis. The importance of international trade is that one
country can be able to assist the other country to meet its needs. The level of
economic growth is important in any country not only in South Africa.
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of foreign trade on economic
growth in South Africa. The findings of this study will demonstrate the light about
positive and negative effects of international trade on economic growth. The
empirical analysis is conducted by using a time series data from 199001 - 201302
quarterly obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Organisation of
Economic Co-operation Development (OECD). The study follows a Cointegrated
vector autoregression (CVAR) which contains the following: Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests for stationarity. The model is also taken
through the Johansen cointegration test and Vector error correction model (VECM).
VECM approach will be followed if cointegration amongst the variables has been
established.
The findings of the study are that all variables have unit root. The cointegration
model emphasizes the long run equilibrium relationship between dependent and
independent variables. The empirical results for the Johansen cointegration test
reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration and suggest the presence of a long
term relationship among all the variables. Empirical investigation reveals that three
variables such as inflation rate , export and exchange rates are positively related to
GOP while other one variable such as import is negatively related to GOP. The
conclusion drawn from this work is that there is a correlation amongst GOP and its
independent variable. This dissertation recommends that The South African
government must start strengthening the competiveness of export by making sure
that it is always balanced with the import. / Thesis (M.Sc. (Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2013
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The financial crisis and household savings in South Africa : An econometric analysis / Itumeleng Pleasure MongaleMongale, Itumeleng Pleasure January 2012 (has links)
The "global" financial crisis (GFC) emerged during 2008 and it was mainly triggered by
the sub-prime mortgage crisis (SMC) in the United States of America. The main aims of
this thesis is to conduct an econometric analysis of the financial crisis and household
savings in South Africa and also to provide a rationale that will facilitate a policy
attention on Domestic Resource Mobilisation (DRM) through household savings. The
study uses quarterly time series data for the period 199401 to 201102 obtained on-line
from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The research is based on the Keynesian
saving function, which is a complement of the consumption function. The model will be
estimated by using a cointegrating vector autoregressive (CVAR) framework, which
allows for endogeneity of the regressors. To check robustness on the cointegration
results, the study employs the second empirical technique based on Generalized
Impulse Response Function (GIRF) analysis and Variance Decomposition. The
regression equation of household savings is expressed as a function of household
disposable income, household debt to disposable income, real GOP, interest rate,
inflation rate and foreign savings.
The variables are tested for the presence of a unit root by the application of the
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (AOF), Phillips-Perron (PP) Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt
and Shin (KPSS) tests. The findings of the study are that all variables have unit roots.
The cointegration model emphasises the presence of a long run equilibrium relationship
between dependent and independent variables. The CVAR reveals the short run of the
dynamic household savings model. Taking this into consideration, the study concludes
that household debt has a huge influence on the level of household savings.
The econometric analysis also revealed that household savings in South Africa actually
improved during the period associated with the GFC. It could be postulated that South
African households responded to their deteriorating financial situations by reducing their
average spending and increasing their savings. Variance decomposition analysis
revealed that 'own shocks' constitute the predominant source of variations in household
saving therefore household savings can be explained by the disturbances in
macroeconomic variables in the study.
The study recommends the promotion of household savings and economic growth in
order to reduce the dependence of South Africa on foreign savings. DRM is therefore
enhanced by a higher level of household savings, which can facilitate higher levels of
investment and economic growth. / Thesis (PhD (Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2012
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Soutěžní politika EU a tzv. klimaticko-energetický balíček / Competition policy of the European Union and climate and energy packageVondrušková, Barbora January 2005 (has links)
The focus of the dissertation is based on the previous research of a relatively new field of environmental governance posed by climate change policy. The implementation of the climate change policy in Europe is then a subject to the discussion over the consistency of that policy with one of the fundamental goals of European integration. That goal is building an internal market as well as ensuring fair competition in such a market. The interaction of these two areas is a key objective of this research work. Given the complexity of the topic, the dissertation, for sake of clarity, is defined more narrowly. On one hand, the thesis provides with an analysis of European climate policy and its main instruments for regulating carbon emissions in the European economy - the European Union emission trading system (EU ETS). On the other hand, the thesis also provides with a description of the European competition policy. The reason is, as mentioned above, that the competition policy is a fundamental policy that guarantees the consistency of the implementation of environmental policies with the building of the internal market. The author analysed in the thesis basic measures implemented within the framework of those with the aim to prove out whether both policies are in mutual accord and whether they do function under the real terms. Based on the results achieved, the author can make following conclusions: The EU ETS mechanism decided for the European Union proved out to be a cost-efficient choice of emission reduction, despite of some temporary weakness that it has. Also, it can be concluded, that the allocation method is the ultimate criterion that determines both the efficiency of the climate action in Europe as well as its compliance with the competition policy. Stemming from that conclusion, there has been some strong evidence given that grandfathering has not been always in line with the state aid rules existing now in the environment protection. Last but not least, the optional use of the Article 10c of the Directive 2003/87/EC seems to be, from what one can say now, fully in line with the state aid rules valid in the European Union. However, further research in this field might be of very use in the future.
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