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Da lei de Wagner no Brasil um estudo acerca da validade atual e da aplicaÃÃo / Wagner's law in Brazil a study on the current validity and applyingRaimundo Ivan Vieira 19 February 2014 (has links)
nÃo hà / The objective of this work is to identify whether the Wagner Law, which refers to the
effect of public spending on economic growth can be observed for the Brazilian
reality. According to Wagner, the public sector is able to intervene in the economy to
alter its growth trajectory, with such a process promoted by higher expenses. To test
the hypothesis Wagner information was collected on the amount of government
spending and the Brazilian production between 1909 and 2012, extracted from
IPEADATA. The processing of information in order to reproduce the arguments that
led to the completion of the verification or not the Wagner Law was based on
techniques of time series. The model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR), the analysis of
Granger and Cointegration test were used. Still, the tests of Dickey - Fuller and
Phillip - Perron test for identification to check the type of behavior that characterizes
the best series of public spending and growth were used. The results highlight that
both variables have decided not stationary in level, you characterize as well as a
process I(1). The impulse response functions showed a positive relationship not
spending towards growth and a low explanatory power of the fluctuations of the latter
after the first 20 periods, respectively. The test of Granger pointed out that there is a
unidirectional relationship between public spending and growth, with the same
expenditure towards growth - ie, only growth can affect the spending behavior in the
Granger sense. Finally, the cointegration analysis did find arguments in favor of a
long-term relationship for the series in question. / O objetivo deste trabalho à identificar se a lei de Wagner, que se remete ao efeito
dos gastos pÃblicos sobre o crescimento econÃmico, pode ser observada para a
realidade brasileira. Segundo Wagner, o setor pÃblico à capaz de intervir na
economia de modo a alterar sua trajetÃria de crescimento, sendo tal processo
promovido pela elevaÃÃo das despesas. Para testar a hipÃtese de Wagner foram
coletadas informaÃÃes sobre o montante de gastos governamentais e sobre a
produÃÃo brasileira entre 1909 e 2012, extraÃdas do IPEADATA. O processamento
das informaÃÃes de modo a reproduzir argumentos que levaram a conclusÃo sobre a
verificaÃÃo ou nÃo da lei de Wagner foram baseado em tÃcnicas de sÃries
temporais. Foram utilizados o modelo de Vetores Auto-Regressivos (VAR), a anÃlise
de causalidade de Granger e o teste de CointegraÃÃo. Ainda, foram utilizados os
testes de Dickey-Fuller Aumentado e o teste de Phillip-Perron para identificaÃÃo para
verificaÃÃo do tipo de comportamento que melhor caracteriza as sÃries do gasto
pÃblico e do crescimento. Os resultados destacam que ambas as variÃveis
apresentam-se de forma nÃo estacionÃria em nÃvel, caracterizas, assim, como um
processo I(1). As funÃÃes de impulso respostas evidenciaram uma relaÃÃo nÃo
positiva do gasto para com o crescimento e um baixo poder de explicaÃÃo das
flutuaÃÃes desta Ãltima pela primeira apÃs 20 perÃodos, respectivamente. O teste de
Granger destacou que existe uma relaÃÃo unidirecional entre gasto pÃblico e
crescimento, sendo a mesmo no sentido crescimento-gasto, ou seja, somente o
crescimento à capaz de afetar o comportamento dos gastos no sentido de Granger.
Por fim, a anÃlise de cointegraÃÃo encontrou argumentos em favor de uma relaÃÃo
de longo prazo para as sÃries em questÃo.
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The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical InvestigationYanik, Yeliz 01 December 2006 (has links) (PDF)
This study investigates the validity of the twin deficits hypothesis for the Turkish quarterly data over the 1988:1-2005:2 periods. To this end, we consider a VAR variable space containing budget deficits, current account deficits, real output, real interest rates and real exchange rates and employ cointegration, equilibrium/error correction mechanism techniques along with Granger-non-causality tests and impulse response analyses. The empirical results from decompositions of the budget and current account deficits into their cyclical and structural components suggest that both CAD and BD are counter-cyclical. The twin deficit hypothesis, consistent with the conventional Mundell-Flemming framework, postulates that current account and budget deficits move together in the long run and the causality runs from the former to the latter. The results from Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration procedures support either the twin divergence or the Ricardian equivalence postulations but not the twin deficits hypothesis. Current account deficits and budget deficits are also found to be jointly endogenous. The short-run impacts of budget deficits on current account deficits are found to be mainly through the real exchange rate and real interest rate channels.
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