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Transferability of community-based macro-level collision prediction models for use in road safety planning applicationsKhondaker, Bidoura 11 1900 (has links)
This thesis proposes the methodology and guidelines for community-based macro-level CPM
transferability to do road safety planning applications, with models developed in one spatial-temporal
region being capable of used in a
different spatial-temporal region. In doing this.
the macro-level CPMs developed for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) by
Lovegrove and Sayed (2006, 2007) was used in a model transferability study. Using those
models from GVRD and data from Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), in the
Province of British Columbia. Canada. a transferability test has been conducted that involved
recalibration of the 1996 GVRD models to Kelowna, in 2003 context. The case study was
carried out in three parts. First, macro-level CPMs for the City of Kelowna were developed
using 2003 data following the research by GVRD CPM development and use. Next, the 1996
GVRD models were recalibrated to see whether they could yield reliable prediction of the
safety estimates for Kelowna, in 2003 context. Finally, a
comparison between the results of
Kelowna’s own developed models and the transferred models was conducted to determine
which models yielded better results.
The results of the transferability study revealed that macro-level CPM transferability was
possible and no more complicated than micro-level CPM transferability. To facilitate the
development of reliable community-based, macro-level collision prediction models, it was
recommended that CPMs be transferred rather than developed from scratch whenever and
wherever communities lack sufficient data of adequate quality. Therefore, the transferability
guidelines in this research, together with their application in the case studies, have been
offered as a contribution towards model transferability to do road safety planning
applications, with models developed in one spatial-temporal region being capable of used in
a different spatial-temporal region.
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Transferability of community-based macro-level collision prediction models for use in road safety planning applicationsKhondaker, Bidoura 11 1900 (has links)
This thesis proposes the methodology and guidelines for community-based macro-level CPM
transferability to do road safety planning applications, with models developed in one spatial-temporal
region being capable of used in a
different spatial-temporal region. In doing this.
the macro-level CPMs developed for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) by
Lovegrove and Sayed (2006, 2007) was used in a model transferability study. Using those
models from GVRD and data from Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), in the
Province of British Columbia. Canada. a transferability test has been conducted that involved
recalibration of the 1996 GVRD models to Kelowna, in 2003 context. The case study was
carried out in three parts. First, macro-level CPMs for the City of Kelowna were developed
using 2003 data following the research by GVRD CPM development and use. Next, the 1996
GVRD models were recalibrated to see whether they could yield reliable prediction of the
safety estimates for Kelowna, in 2003 context. Finally, a
comparison between the results of
Kelowna’s own developed models and the transferred models was conducted to determine
which models yielded better results.
The results of the transferability study revealed that macro-level CPM transferability was
possible and no more complicated than micro-level CPM transferability. To facilitate the
development of reliable community-based, macro-level collision prediction models, it was
recommended that CPMs be transferred rather than developed from scratch whenever and
wherever communities lack sufficient data of adequate quality. Therefore, the transferability
guidelines in this research, together with their application in the case studies, have been
offered as a contribution towards model transferability to do road safety planning
applications, with models developed in one spatial-temporal region being capable of used in
a different spatial-temporal region.
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Transferability of community-based macro-level collision prediction models for use in road safety planning applicationsKhondaker, Bidoura 11 1900 (has links)
This thesis proposes the methodology and guidelines for community-based macro-level CPM
transferability to do road safety planning applications, with models developed in one spatial-temporal
region being capable of used in a
different spatial-temporal region. In doing this.
the macro-level CPMs developed for the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) by
Lovegrove and Sayed (2006, 2007) was used in a model transferability study. Using those
models from GVRD and data from Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), in the
Province of British Columbia. Canada. a transferability test has been conducted that involved
recalibration of the 1996 GVRD models to Kelowna, in 2003 context. The case study was
carried out in three parts. First, macro-level CPMs for the City of Kelowna were developed
using 2003 data following the research by GVRD CPM development and use. Next, the 1996
GVRD models were recalibrated to see whether they could yield reliable prediction of the
safety estimates for Kelowna, in 2003 context. Finally, a
comparison between the results of
Kelowna’s own developed models and the transferred models was conducted to determine
which models yielded better results.
The results of the transferability study revealed that macro-level CPM transferability was
possible and no more complicated than micro-level CPM transferability. To facilitate the
development of reliable community-based, macro-level collision prediction models, it was
recommended that CPMs be transferred rather than developed from scratch whenever and
wherever communities lack sufficient data of adequate quality. Therefore, the transferability
guidelines in this research, together with their application in the case studies, have been
offered as a contribution towards model transferability to do road safety planning
applications, with models developed in one spatial-temporal region being capable of used in
a different spatial-temporal region. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate
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Use of Advanced Techniques to Estimate Zonal Level Safety Planning Models and Examine their Temporal TransferabilityHadayeghi, Alireza 24 September 2009 (has links)
Historically, the traditional planning process has not given much attention to the road safety evaluation of development plans. To make an informed, defensible, and proactive choice between alternative plans and their safety implications, it is necessary to have a procedure for estimating and evaluating safety performance. A procedure is required for examining the influence of the urban network development on road safety, and in particular, determining the effects of the many variables that affect safety in urban planning.
Safety planning models can provide a decision-support tool that facilitates the assessment of the safety implications of alternative network plans. The first objective of this research study is to develop safety planning models that are consistent with the regional models commonly used for urban transportation planning. Geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR), full-Bayesian semiparametric additive (FBSA), and traditional generalized linear modelling (GLM) techniques are used to develop the models. The study evaluates how well each model is able to handle spatial variations in the relationship between collision explanatory variables and the number of collisions in a zone. The evaluation uses measures of goodness of fit (GOF) and finds that the GWPR and FBSA models perform much better than the conventional GLM approach. There is little difference between the GOF values for the FBSA and GWPR models.
The second objective of this research study is to examine the temporal transferability of the safety planning models and alternative updating methods. The updating procedures examine the Bayesian approach and application of calibration factors. The results show that the models are not temporally transferable in a strict statistical sense. However, relative measures of transferability indicate that the transferred models yield useful information in the application context. The results also show that the updated safety planning models using the Bayesian approach predict the number of collisions better than the calibration factor procedure.
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Use of Advanced Techniques to Estimate Zonal Level Safety Planning Models and Examine their Temporal TransferabilityHadayeghi, Alireza 24 September 2009 (has links)
Historically, the traditional planning process has not given much attention to the road safety evaluation of development plans. To make an informed, defensible, and proactive choice between alternative plans and their safety implications, it is necessary to have a procedure for estimating and evaluating safety performance. A procedure is required for examining the influence of the urban network development on road safety, and in particular, determining the effects of the many variables that affect safety in urban planning.
Safety planning models can provide a decision-support tool that facilitates the assessment of the safety implications of alternative network plans. The first objective of this research study is to develop safety planning models that are consistent with the regional models commonly used for urban transportation planning. Geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR), full-Bayesian semiparametric additive (FBSA), and traditional generalized linear modelling (GLM) techniques are used to develop the models. The study evaluates how well each model is able to handle spatial variations in the relationship between collision explanatory variables and the number of collisions in a zone. The evaluation uses measures of goodness of fit (GOF) and finds that the GWPR and FBSA models perform much better than the conventional GLM approach. There is little difference between the GOF values for the FBSA and GWPR models.
The second objective of this research study is to examine the temporal transferability of the safety planning models and alternative updating methods. The updating procedures examine the Bayesian approach and application of calibration factors. The results show that the models are not temporally transferable in a strict statistical sense. However, relative measures of transferability indicate that the transferred models yield useful information in the application context. The results also show that the updated safety planning models using the Bayesian approach predict the number of collisions better than the calibration factor procedure.
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