Increased volatility of agricultural commodity prices as well as market linkages between the agricultural and energy markets expose producers to different types of systematic price risk. Producers that operate on margins involving both input and output price uncertainty are perhaps the most adversely affected by these volatility changes. The beef cattle feeding industry is one such example. This research focuses on how expected margins in the beef cattle backgrounding and finishing stages are affected by output and input price uncertainty.

Chapter 1 ---Does the party of government influence the amount and type of inward foreign investment? The results of a number of correlational studies provide inconsistent evidence. However none of these studies - for any level of government or any jurisdiction - have used methods that allow them to speak to causal effects. Regression discontinuity (RD) method is applied to a set of narrow-margin US gubernatorial elections. Over the course of a four-year term the election of a Republican governor causes a 21% boost in the growth of manufacturing-oriented FDI stock, compared to a Democrat. This effect is robust to a series of challenges. However, the same approach provides no evidence that partisanship matters for the overall level of FDI. Chapter 2 ---Does an economic shock open a window of opportunity for reform, and if it does, how does the institution of a state play a role? The paper investigates how economic shocks affect the structural reforms in various institutions. This paper addresses this issue by using the exogenous variation in the international price of large commodity goods to generate the exogenous change in national income. The analysis relies on a unique mapping between new annual data from 1962 to 2005 on economic shocks from commodity prices and structural reforms in 111 countries. I find significant heterogeneous effects across sectors in autocratic countries. In autocracies, positive economic shocks promote reforms in real sectors, but deter reforms in financial sectors. However the impact of economic shocks on structural reform in democratic countries is nil. Chapter 3 ---The deregulation of branch banking across the United States substantially increased the availability of credit to existing borrowers and others who has previously been excluded. Exploiting the staggered timing of changes across states for identification it is estimated that deregulation caused a 3.3% increase in rates of suicide and a 4.7% increase in rates of divorce. This is consistent with a large body of evidence linking excess debt to various measures of individual and relationship distress. Results are in most cases statistically significant at levels much higher than 1%, and prove resilient in a battery of robustness checks and falsification exercises.

The study focuses on tariff-linked (or commodity-linked) agreements entered into between a power utility and commodity producers. The main purpose of these types of agreements is to link electricity tariff payable by commodity producers to the price of the commodity produced thereby transferring a certain level of commodity price risk to the power utility. The study looks at risk management practices of a power utility company with a particular reference to tariff-linked agreements. Also, the study critically analyses risk hedging mechanisms put in place by the power utility. The report makes practical recommendations, where applicable, in dealing with these risks. Risk management continuously evolve to meet the challenges of complex financial world. Despite the latest sophisticated risk management tools available commodity producers still encounter difficulties to hedge the price risk. The challenge for the power utility is the application of new risk management tools to effectively manage price risk. / Business Management / M.Com. (Business Economics)

The study focuses on tariff-linked (or commodity-linked) agreements entered into between a power utility and commodity producers. The main purpose of these types of agreements is to link electricity tariff payable by commodity producers to the price of the commodity produced thereby transferring a certain level of commodity price risk to the power utility. The study looks at risk management practices of a power utility company with a particular reference to tariff-linked agreements. Also, the study critically analyses risk hedging mechanisms put in place by the power utility. The report makes practical recommendations, where applicable, in dealing with these risks. Risk management continuously evolve to meet the challenges of complex financial world. Despite the latest sophisticated risk management tools available commodity producers still encounter difficulties to hedge the price risk. The challenge for the power utility is the application of new risk management tools to effectively manage price risk. / Business Management / M.Com. (Business Economics)

It is a well-known fact that macro-economic conditions, such as prices of commodities (e.g. oil, cement and steel) affect the cost of construction projects. In a volatile market environment, highway agencies often pass such risk to contractors using fixed-price contracts. In turn, the contractors respond by adding premiums in bid prices. If the contractors overprice the risk, the price of fixed-price contract could exceed the price of the contract with adjustment clauses. Consequently, highway agencies have the opportunity to design a contract that not only reduces the future risk of exposure, but also reduces the initial contract price. The main goal of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of commodity price risk on construction cost and the optimal risk hedging of such risks using price adjustment clauses. More specifically, the objective of the dissertation is to develop models that can help highway agencies manage commodity price risks. In this dissertation, a weighted least square regression model is used to estimate the risk premium; both univariate and vector time series models are estimated and applied to simulate changes in commodity prices over time, including the effect of correlation; while the genetic algorithm is used as a solution approach to a multi-objective optimization formulation. The data set used in this dissertation consists of TxDOT bidding data, market-based data including New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) future options data, and Engineering News-Record (ENR) material cost index data. The results of this dissertation suggest that the optimal risk mitigation actions are conditional on owners' risk preferences, correlation among the prices of commodities, and volatility of the market.

This dissertation explores how extreme events, climate, and yield variability affect local agricultural markets and global agricultural trade, offering insights to improve resilience and adaptability. It comprises three chapters. The first chapter analyzes the co-movement of corn basis returns among six local market pairs in North Carolina during extreme events using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). By focusing on the basis, this paper investigates the local market correlations that reflect local market conditions. Results show stronger lower-tail correlations than upper tails, with Candor and Cofield reaching 0.76 during negative shocks, indicating asymmetric price-setting behavior. These findings highlight the reliance on shared infrastructure, emphasizing the need for coordinated risk management, supply chain resilience, and targeted insurance policies. The study also reveals non-normal, asymmetric tail distributions, underscoring the limitations of standard time series models that assume normal and symmetric residuals to capture extreme market correlations. The second chapter examines the significant direct effects of growing season, area-weighted weather shocks on wheat and corn exports and imports. A 1 ◦C rise in exporter temperatures reduces exports by 4.6%, while a 1 ◦C increase in importer temperatures raises imports by 3.7%. Similarly, a 1 mm increase in precipitation reduces exports and imports by 3%. Exporters prioritize domestic markets during weather shocks, with lower-income countries being particularly vulnerable to these disruptions. The third chapter investigates how bystander countries—unaffected exporters and import-reliant countries—adjust their trade in response to yield shocks in major wheat-exporting countries. Argentina demonstrates significant trade adjustments with its importers in response to both current and lagged yield shocks of major wheat exporters, potentially due to its export structure. Import-reliant countries with more diversified sourcing exhibit smaller trade adjustments, indicating the importance of diversification as a resilience strategy. These findings stress the importance of supportive policies and infrastructure to enhance global trade resilience and adaptation to extreme yield and weather shocks. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation is organized into three studies. The first study looks at corn market basis return co-movement in six local areas in North Carolina during extreme events like droughts and pests, using a method called Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The basis, which is the difference between the local cash price and the corresponding future price, reflects local market conditions. The study finds stronger co-movement during negative shocks than positive shocks, with Candor and Cofield showing particularly strong links. These results suggest that shared infrastructure like storage and transportation makes local markets more vulnerable to disruptions, highlighting the need for improved infrastructure, better risk management, and targeted policies. The study also reveals non-normal, asymmetric tail distributions, underscoring the limitations of standard time series models that assume normal and symmetric residuals. The second study investigates how changes in weather during the growing season and growing area affect the global wheat and corn trade. It finds that higher temperatures or rainfall in countries reduce their exports as they focus on meeting local needs. Countries that import these crops increase their purchases to make up for shortages. Poorer countries are particularly at risk from these climate impacts, emphasizing the need for global efforts to support vulnerable regions. The third study investigates how countries not directly affected by yield shocks—like bystander exporters and importers adjust their trade in response to disruptions in major wheat-exporting countries. Argentina has the largest trade response to the yield shocks of major wheat exporters among all exporters likely due to its focus on a few key buyers. Countries that rely on imports but have more diverse suppliers adjust less, showing that diversification helps them withstand supply shocks. These findings stress the importance of supportive policies and infrastructure to enhance global trade resilience and adaptation to extreme shocks.

La globalisation est probablement la caractéristique principale de l'économie mondiale du 21e siècle. Elle se traduit notamment par l'intégration par les canaux commerciaux, financiers et les marchés de matières premières. Si un tel contexte affecte de manière très significative tous les types d'économies, il convient de souligner que les petites économies ouvertes dépendantes des exportations de matières premières, et ouvertes aux marchés financiers globaux, sont en général les plus exposées. L'économie chilienne possède toutes ces caractéristiques. C’est dans ce contexte que cette thèse explore l'efficacité de la politique budgétaire chilienne et les effets des prix des matières premières et des chocs financiers internationaux sur le PIB chilien et d'autres variables macro-économiques importantes. A cette fin, on utilise une approche empirique basée sur des modèles vectoriels autorégressifs. / The economic globalization is probably the main feature of the 21st century world economy, with economic integration and interdependence of national economies across the world particularly common in commodity and financial markets. Such a context greatly affect all types of economies though those small, dependent on commodity exports, and open to global financial markets are usually the most exposed. Having in mind this scenario, in this Ph.D. dissertation we explore the effectiveness of the Chilean fiscal policy and the effects of commodity prices and foreign financial shocks, on the Chilean GDP and other macroeconomic fundamentals using an empirical approach based on alternative vector autoregressive models.To understand the effectiveness of the country’s fiscal policy aiming at guarantying macroeconomic stability, in the Chapter 1 of this Ph.D. dissertation we study the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on the Chilean macroeconomic fundamentals and the size of fiscal multipliers. Chapter 2 examines how shocks to commodity prices affect the Chilean economic output, fiscal accounts and private consumption, based on correlations analysis and vector autoregression models. In the Chapter 3 of this Ph.D. dissertation we study the effect of foreign financial shocks on the Chilean real economy.

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.

Since the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Canadian dollar has come to be regarded as a petro-currency. Consequently, rising prices of oil and gas (as well as other natural resources) would increase capital inflows that would lead to a higher exchange rate and contribute to the decimation of the export-oriented Canadian manufacturing sector by making Canadian products less competitive internationally. Some have argued that the Canadian economy has started to show symptoms related to the Dutch Disease. One important symptom is the slow rate of productivity growth, which consequently leads to the theory that Canada’s productivity performance depends significantly on the foreign exchange value of the domestic currency. This dissertation attempts to address these issues and seeks to solve the question of whether the Canadian economy is suffering from the Dutch Disease, as well as whether or not movements of the Canadian dollar are responsible for the low Canadian productivity growth since the 1990s.