O objeto de estudo desta Tese é o impacto da formação da Área de Livre Comércio das América (Alca) sobre a economia brasileira. A economia brasileira não é homogênea internamente, possuindo contrastes importantes entre setores e regiões. A Alca, por seu lado, pode ser considerada um bloco de países com interesses distintos e marcada por importantes assimetrias. Devem ser esperados, dessa forma, impactos espaciais e setoriais diferenciados na economia brasileira como fruto das diferentes alternativas de acordo que surjam das negociações na Alca. O estudo dessas questões requer uma metodologia adequada, que considera de maneira sistemática as relações inter-regionais e intersetoriais, assim como a inserção internacional das economias locais. Modelos inter-regionais de equilíbrio geral computável são ferramentas importantes nessa área, e exemplos para a economia brasileira são encontrados na literatura. SPARTA (São Paulo Applied Regional Trade Analysis) é o modelo inter-regional de equilíbrio geral computável implementado nesta Tese. Uma de suas inovações está no tratamento detalhado dos fluxos externos, especificando mercados de origem e destino para as importações e exportações regionais, o que possibilita simular os impactos da liberalização tarifária no âmbito da Alca. Os resultados obtidos permitem projetar um efeito positivo da liberalização tarifária na Alca para o crescimento do PIB e geração de superávit comercial, no longo prazo. Regionalmente, entretanto, os impactos atuam no sentido da concentração relativa da produção e investimento na economia paulista. Além disso, uma importante diferenciação setorial dos impactos da liberalização na Alca pode ser identificada. Dentro dessa perspectiva, são discutidos aspectos relacionados à necessidade e adequação de políticas públicas. / The process of trade liberalization in Brazil has been extended in recent years to broader regional trade agreements, motivated by both economic and political objectives. The country has been pursuing different strategies of regional integration in an attempt to strengthen strategic impulses for economic development. One of the alternatives for the development of an economic trading block is the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), a process initiated in the 1994 Summit of the Americas to integrate the economies of the Western Hemisphere into a single free trade agreement. In this dissertation an interregional CGE model is used to analyze the short-run and long-run regional and sectoral effects of trade liberalization in a FTAA agreement. The model provides a description of the Brazilian inter-regional economic system, separated in two regions, São Paulo and Rest of Brazil. One of its innovations is a full specification of foreign trade in both regions, capturing the complete structure of trade flows linking the two Brazilian regions and FTAA markets. In this way, adequate tariff liberalization simulations can be implemented. The model simulations provide results in macro, regional and sectoral levels. A positive effect of FTAA liberalization on Brazilian GDP growth and trade balance can be expected. However, the results suggest that the interplay of market forces in the Brazilian economy favors the more developed state of the country (São Paulo). Additionally, sectoral liberalization under FTAA can produce heterogeneous regional impacts. These figures provide the framework to discuss adequate regional economic policies.

O objeto de estudo desta Tese é o impacto da formação da Área de Livre Comércio das América (Alca) sobre a economia brasileira. A economia brasileira não é homogênea internamente, possuindo contrastes importantes entre setores e regiões. A Alca, por seu lado, pode ser considerada um bloco de países com interesses distintos e marcada por importantes assimetrias. Devem ser esperados, dessa forma, impactos espaciais e setoriais diferenciados na economia brasileira como fruto das diferentes alternativas de acordo que surjam das negociações na Alca. O estudo dessas questões requer uma metodologia adequada, que considera de maneira sistemática as relações inter-regionais e intersetoriais, assim como a inserção internacional das economias locais. Modelos inter-regionais de equilíbrio geral computável são ferramentas importantes nessa área, e exemplos para a economia brasileira são encontrados na literatura. SPARTA (São Paulo Applied Regional Trade Analysis) é o modelo inter-regional de equilíbrio geral computável implementado nesta Tese. Uma de suas inovações está no tratamento detalhado dos fluxos externos, especificando mercados de origem e destino para as importações e exportações regionais, o que possibilita simular os impactos da liberalização tarifária no âmbito da Alca. Os resultados obtidos permitem projetar um efeito positivo da liberalização tarifária na Alca para o crescimento do PIB e geração de superávit comercial, no longo prazo. Regionalmente, entretanto, os impactos atuam no sentido da concentração relativa da produção e investimento na economia paulista. Além disso, uma importante diferenciação setorial dos impactos da liberalização na Alca pode ser identificada. Dentro dessa perspectiva, são discutidos aspectos relacionados à necessidade e adequação de políticas públicas. / The process of trade liberalization in Brazil has been extended in recent years to broader regional trade agreements, motivated by both economic and political objectives. The country has been pursuing different strategies of regional integration in an attempt to strengthen strategic impulses for economic development. One of the alternatives for the development of an economic trading block is the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), a process initiated in the 1994 Summit of the Americas to integrate the economies of the Western Hemisphere into a single free trade agreement. In this dissertation an interregional CGE model is used to analyze the short-run and long-run regional and sectoral effects of trade liberalization in a FTAA agreement. The model provides a description of the Brazilian inter-regional economic system, separated in two regions, São Paulo and Rest of Brazil. One of its innovations is a full specification of foreign trade in both regions, capturing the complete structure of trade flows linking the two Brazilian regions and FTAA markets. In this way, adequate tariff liberalization simulations can be implemented. The model simulations provide results in macro, regional and sectoral levels. A positive effect of FTAA liberalization on Brazilian GDP growth and trade balance can be expected. However, the results suggest that the interplay of market forces in the Brazilian economy favors the more developed state of the country (São Paulo). Additionally, sectoral liberalization under FTAA can produce heterogeneous regional impacts. These figures provide the framework to discuss adequate regional economic policies.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

South Africa's North West Province is dependent on gold and platinum exports for its economic growth and employment. Whether this specialisation is optimal from an economic growth, employment creation and welfare point of view, or whether greater export diversification should be encouraged, can most appropriately be evaluated using a general equilibrium framework. Moreover, the answer of whether such specialisation or rather diversification is appropriate may differ depending on the spatial level of analysis that is taken. For instance, export diversification or specialisation on a national level might differ from export diversification or specialisation on sub-national (e.g. provincial) level. A general equilibrium framework is most appropriate for investigating the potential differences between these levels as it takes into consideration a region's economic structure, and the economy-wide linkages between demand, supply, production structure and income distribution. In this light this thesis proposes a regional applied general equilibrium (RAGE) model for the North West Province to address these issues. The question asked is, how can a RAGE model be formulated and implemented for the North West Province of South Africa in order to study the differential impacts of greater export specialisation versus greater export diversification? In answering this question this thesis provides policy makers at regional/provincial level with access to a potentially useful modelling tool, to analyse regional economic issues; it contributes to better understanding the spatial concentration and spatial dynamics of economic activity in the North West Province; and contributes toward the practical policy debate in South Africa. This thesis reviews the literature on export diversification and specialisation, by investigating the extent of export diversification and specialisation in the North West Province over the period 1995-2006 and its relationship to GDP per capita, and using a RAGE model to investigate the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export speciaRsation. These results are contrasted by investigating the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export specialisation on the national level, using a country-wide applied general equilibrium (AGE) model for South Africa. It is found that greater export diversification results in a more substantial increase in exports (of between 0.95 and 1.73 per cent) than in the case of greater export specialisation. In fact it was found that if the North West Province were to specialise in mining exports, such exports would need to grow or increase from the base year by approximately 78 per cent (with no increase in the export demand for other sectors) to result in the same level of growth of total export volumes as is found under export diversification. Avenues for further research are identified. These are a need for more research on elasticities and parameters at regional level, an expansion of the transport services sector in the model, incorporating Tourism Satellite Accounts, BEE and SMME aspects into the model, etc. In conclusion, the thesis implemented the first provincial regional applied general equilibrium model for South Africa, and illustrated that it can make an important contribution to the policy debate on a provincial level in South Africa. The construction of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for all of South Africa's provinces, and the maintenance of these provincial databases could therefore make further contributions to the quantitative assessment of policy options facing government on both the national and provincial level. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

South Africa's North West Province is dependent on gold and platinum exports for its economic growth and employment. Whether this specialisation is optimal from an economic growth, employment creation and welfare point of view, or whether greater export diversification should be encouraged, can most appropriately be evaluated using a general equilibrium framework. Moreover, the answer of whether such specialisation or rather diversification is appropriate may differ depending on the spatial level of analysis that is taken. For instance, export diversification or specialisation on a national level might differ from export diversification or specialisation on sub-national (e.g. provincial) level. A general equilibrium framework is most appropriate for investigating the potential differences between these levels as it takes into consideration a region's economic structure, and the economy-wide linkages between demand, supply, production structure and income distribution. In this light this thesis proposes a regional applied general equilibrium (RAGE) model for the North West Province to address these issues. The question asked is, how can a RAGE model be formulated and implemented for the North West Province of South Africa in order to study the differential impacts of greater export specialisation versus greater export diversification? In answering this question this thesis provides policy makers at regional/provincial level with access to a potentially useful modelling tool, to analyse regional economic issues; it contributes to better understanding the spatial concentration and spatial dynamics of economic activity in the North West Province; and contributes toward the practical policy debate in South Africa. This thesis reviews the literature on export diversification and specialisation, by investigating the extent of export diversification and specialisation in the North West Province over the period 1995-2006 and its relationship to GDP per capita, and using a RAGE model to investigate the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export speciaRsation. These results are contrasted by investigating the economy-wide impacts of greater export diversification versus greater export specialisation on the national level, using a country-wide applied general equilibrium (AGE) model for South Africa. It is found that greater export diversification results in a more substantial increase in exports (of between 0.95 and 1.73 per cent) than in the case of greater export specialisation. In fact it was found that if the North West Province were to specialise in mining exports, such exports would need to grow or increase from the base year by approximately 78 per cent (with no increase in the export demand for other sectors) to result in the same level of growth of total export volumes as is found under export diversification. Avenues for further research are identified. These are a need for more research on elasticities and parameters at regional level, an expansion of the transport services sector in the model, incorporating Tourism Satellite Accounts, BEE and SMME aspects into the model, etc. In conclusion, the thesis implemented the first provincial regional applied general equilibrium model for South Africa, and illustrated that it can make an important contribution to the policy debate on a provincial level in South Africa. The construction of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for all of South Africa's provinces, and the maintenance of these provincial databases could therefore make further contributions to the quantitative assessment of policy options facing government on both the national and provincial level. / Thesis (Ph.D. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.