This research develops an equipment failure prognostics model to predict the equipment’s chance of survival, using LAD. LAD benefits from not relying on any statistical theory, which enables it to overcome the problems concerning the statistical properties of the datasets. Its main advantage is its straightforward process and self-explanatory results. Herein, our main objective is to develop models to calculate equipment’s survival probability at a certain future moment, using LAD. We employ the LAD’s pattern generation procedure. Then, we introduce a guideline to employ generated patterns to estimate the equipment’s survival probability. The models are applied on a condition monitoring dataset. Performance analysis reveals that they provide comprehensible results that are greatly beneficial to maintenance practitioners. Results are compared with PHM’s results. The comparison reveals that the LAD models compare favorably to the PHM. Since they are at their beginning phase, some future directions are presented to improve their performances.

Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) technologies aim at improving the availability, reliability, maintainability, and safety of systems through the development of fault diagnostic and failure prognostic algorithms. In complex engineering systems, such as aircraft, power plants, etc., the prognostic activities have been limited to the component-level, primarily due to the complexity of large-scale engineering systems. However, the output of these prognostic algorithms can be practically useful for the system managers, operators, or maintenance personnel, only if it helps them in making decisions, which are based on system-level parameters. Therefore, there is an emerging need to build health assessment methodologies at the system-level. This research employs techniques from the field of design-of-experiments to build response surface metamodels at the system-level that are built on the foundations provided by component-level damage models.

<p>  </p> <p>The integration of Industry 4.0 technologies such as cyber-physical systems, the internet of things, and artificial intelligence has revolutionized the traditional manufacturing systems, making them smart and digital. Maintenance, a critical component of manufacturing, has been incorporated with data-driven strategies such as prognostic and health management (PHM) to improve production efficiency and reliability. This is achieved by real-time sensing and AI-based modeling, which monitor the health condition of operational equipment for fault detection or failure prediction. The results generated by these models provide crucial support for decision-making processes in manufacturing, ranging from maintenance scheduling to production management.</p> <p>This research focuses on data-driven machine health models based on deep learning in manufacturing systems and explores three directions towards the practical implementation of PHM: model interpretation, model adaptability and robustness enhancement, and cost-benefit analysis of maintenance strategies. In terms of model interpretation, the RNN-LSTM-based model prediction on bearing health estimation was analyzed, and the relationship between the model input and output was investigated. The adoption of the LRP technique improved the explainability of the LSTM model beyond predictive maintenance applications. To enhance model adaptability and robustness, a Transformer-based method was developed for fault diagnosis and novel fault detection, which achieved superior performance compared to conventional fault classification AI-based models. The decision-making aspect of PHM was addressed by conducting a cost-benefit analysis on different maintenance strategies, which provided a new perspective for decision-makers in maintenance management.</p>