The existence of contrarian profits is a well-documented finding across various equity markets around the world. A key question, which is the focus of this research, is - why do such profits exist? Potential answers are examined in a large number of research papers, and fall into two categories: rational (i.e. there is a difference in risks characteristics of glamour and value stocks) and behavioural (i.e. the market regularly overshoots, leading to a mis-valuation of glamour and value stocks followed by a correction). However, a consensus has not been achieved so far. This research contributes to this discussion, based on the S&P 500 constituents through 1990-2013 with the use of strategies based on past returns, fundamental ratios and valuation models. I assess the following issues: whether the use of contrarian strategies can be considered as justified by the rational behaviour of a portfolio manager, whose clients may have a cheaper option to invest in a passive strategy, like an index fund or exchange traded fund (chapter 3); whether contrarian profits are mainly the product of (i) fair value revisions in response to new information or (ii) corrections to prior mis-pricing (chapter 4); whether contrarian profits are mainly the product of expected returns as imputed from the Fama and French three factor model (chapter 5). On the first point I find that an equally weighted portfolio of all constituents of S&P 500 over a particular testing period was superior to any of the tested contrarian strategies from risk/return perspective (Chapter 3). On the second point, I find that fair value revisions to new information is less important in explaining contrarian profits than corrections to prior mis-pricing when the market rebounded in 2009 (the only year where these two influences explained a significant part of the contrarian profits for most of the contrarian strategies under review) from the 2008 financial crisis (Chapter 4). On the third point, I find that rational pricing factors (both the Fama-French three factor model, and fair value revisions to new information) are more important in explaining contrarian profits than corrections to prior mis-pricing, which is mainly due to the significance of the Fama-French three factor model (Chapter 5).

This thesis investigates the profitability of the Momentum and Contrarian strategies in international equity markets. In particular, I introduce for the first time the use of countries' indices performance to momentum and contrarian portfolio selection. I show that investors can switch back and forth from one country to the other in designing worldwide strategies. The global momentum strategy is consistently profitable between 1969 and 2014. The most successful momentum strategy selects stocks based on their previous performances over 9 months and then holds the portfolio for the next 3 months. This strategy yields 3% per month (42.57% per year). Interestingly, countries' indices' portfolios formed based on prior 48 months; prior losers outperform prior winners by 0.83% per month (10.40% per year) during the subsequent 60 months. The reversal effect is substantially stronger for emerging countries where it yields 1.37% per month (17.70% per year). It remains profitable in the period post-globalization. In addition, I examine for the first time the role of world risks factors in explaining the global momentum and contrarian profits and find that the global momentum strategies obtain significant abnormal returns after adjusting consecutively for world Fama and French risks (0.9% per month or 11.35% per year), and world market states risks (1.31% per month or 16.76% year). Of particular interest, I find a strong relation between world macroeconomic risks factors, notably world industrial production and the momentum return. Second, I find no substantial relation between world risks factors and the contrarian profit. These results suggest that excess return can be earned in the long run by using global investment strategies based on historical prices, challenging the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In Chapter 1, I explain the momentum and the contrarian strategies, motivate the importance of what I propose as global momentum and contrarian strategies, and present the results obtained. In chapter 2, I review the Efficient Market Hypothesis' literatures in conformity with the Standard Finance theory. Additionally, I review the Behavioural Finance literatures with a focus on the psychology of investor decision, and the stock market under-reaction and overreaction approach of explaining the momentum and contrarian profitability. In chapter 3, I explain in details the main methodologies used to examine the global momentum and contrarian strategies profitability, and motivate the dataset used. In Chapter 4, I examine the new global momentum strategy profitability internationally. In Chapter 5, I examine the new contrarian strategy profitability internationally. In Chapter 6 I examine the role of global risks factors in explaining the momentum and contrarian profits. Finally, in Chapter 7 I conclude and highlights the limitations of the thesis.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between the returns of momentum strategies and macroeconomic factors. The empirical results indicate that the phenomenon of underreaction is found in Taiwan stock market in the short term, and adoption of momentum strategies can slightly result in significant positive abnormal returns, while no phenomenon of overreaction is found in the long term, and no significant positive abnormal returns are gained if the contrarian strategies are applied. After dividing the market status into bull market and bear market, we find that the underreaction phenomenon appears in the bull market in the short term, and significant positive returns may be gained if the momentum strategies are used; on the other hand, the overreaction phenomenon appears in the bear market in the long term, and the adoption of contrarian strategies may offer significantly positive returns. In addition, either positive or negative excess returns of momentum strategies are found in the bull and bear markets. The value of (alpha) of the returns mostly exceeds zero after the adjustment of Fama and French three-factor model. Finally, the predictive value of macroeconomic analysis and the analysis of returns of momentum strategies reveal that the rate of return of momentum strategies is higher when the expected rate of return of macro economy in the bull market is getting lower, and the rate of return of momentum strategies is lower while the expected rate of return of macro economy in the bear market is high. We conclude that macroeconomic factors are unrelated to the returns of momentum strategies, regardless of bull market or bear market.

This study mainly investgates the investment performance of momentum strategies and contrarian strategies in Taiwan stock market. There are three purposes in this paper. First, we examine whether the momentum strategies and contrarian strategies can create significant profits under different formulation horizons and holding horizons, then we discuss the reasons for the profits of significant profits strategies, including risk, seasonality, industrial momentum, time series predictability of stock returns and cross-sectional variation in the mean returns, and stock underreation, overreaction, and random walk. Second, we derive the mix strategies from the combination of momentum strategies and contrarian strategies for the same holding horizons and test the investment performance of mix strategies empirically. Finally, we study whether the investment strategies of stock mutual funds in Taiwan are industrial momentum strategies or industrial contrarian strategies, and which strategies can create better industrial investment performance. The main conclusions and suggestions are as follows: First, we find the momentum strategies are more successful in Taiwan as a whole, especially from 1991/1/1 to 2000/12/31. There are only three significant profits strategies in 147 strategies totally for three different test periods, including the (24,24) strategy and (36,24) strategy from 1991/1/1 to 2000/12/31, and (1,12) strategy from 1981/1/1 to 1990/12/31. For the reasons of the profits of the three strategies, we find the negative alphas in the F&F three factors model and underreation from the decreasing returns in the post holding horizons, so we should use the momentum strategies very carefully in Taiwan stock market. Second, we find the success of mix strategies theoretically and empirically. Nevertheless, we can¡¦t increase the profits for considering more different sub-strategies if there are no successful sub-strategies with different formulation horizons. Finally, we find the investment strategies of stock mutual funds almost are industrial momentum strategies, which realized significantly better industrial performance then the industrial contrarian strategies. It suggests that the industrial momentum strategies are not irrational and can increase the speed of adjustment of industrial index to its intrinsic value. On the other hand, stock mutual funds can perform well by the momentum strategies without superior information collection and analysis.