Recent observations have shown that coronal shocks driven by coronal mass ejections can develop and accelerate particles within several solar radii in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Motivated by this, we present an SEP acceleration study that including the process in which a fast shock propagates through a streamer-like magnetic field with both closed and open field lines in the low corona region. The acceleration of protons is modeled by numerically solving the Parker transport equation with spatial diffusion both along and across the magnetic field. We show that particles can be sufficiently accelerated to up to several hundred MeV within 2-3 solar radii. When the shock propagates through a streamer-like magnetic field, particles are more efficiently accelerated compared to the case with a simple radial magnetic field, mainly due to perpendicular shock geometry and the natural trapping effect of closed magnetic fields. Our results suggest that the coronal magnetic field configuration is an important factor for producing large SEP events. We further show that the coronal magnetic field configuration strongly influences the distribution of energetic particles, leading to different locations of source regions along the shock front where most high-energy particles are concentrated. This work may have strong implications for SEP observations. The upcoming Parker Solar Probe will provide in situ observations for the distribution of energetic particles in the coronal shock region, and test the results of the study.

Solar transient eruptions are the main cause of interplanetary-magnetospheric disturbances leading to the phenomena known as geomagnetic storms. Eruptive solar events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are currently considered the main cause of geomagnetic storms (GMS). GMS are strong perturbations of the Earth’s magnetic field that can affect space-borne and ground-based technological systems. The solar-terrestrial impact on modern technological systems is commonly known as Space Weather. Part of the research study described in this thesis was to investigate and establish a relationship between GMS (periods with Dst ≤ −50 nT) and their associated solar and interplanetary (IP) properties during solar cycle (SC) 23. Solar and IP geoeffective properties associated with or without CMEs were investigated and used to qualitatively characterise both intense and moderate storms. The results of this analysis specifically provide an estimate of the main sources of GMS during an average 11-year solar activity period. This study indicates that during SC 23, the majority of intense GMS (83%) were associated with CMEs, while the non-associated CME storms were dominant among moderate storms. GMS phenomena are the result of a complex and non-linear chaotic system involving the Sun, the IP medium, the magnetosphere and ionosphere, which make the prediction of these phenomena challenging. This thesis also explored the predictability of both the occurrence and strength of GMS. Due to their nonlinear driving mechanisms, the prediction of GMS was attempted by the use of neural network (NN) techniques, known for their non-linear modelling capabilities. To predict the occurrence of storms, a combination of solar and IP parameters were used as inputs in the NN model that proved to predict the occurrence of GMS with a probability of 87%. Using the solar wind (SW) and IP magnetic field (IMF) parameters, a separate NN-based model was developed to predict the storm-time strength as measured by the global Dst and ap geomagnetic indices, as well as by the locally measured K-index. The performance of the models was tested on data sets which were not part of the NN training process. The results obtained indicate that NN models provide a reliable alternative method for empirically predicting the occurrence and strength of GMS on the basis of solar and IP parameters. The demonstrated ability to predict the geoeffectiveness of solar and IP transient events is a key step in the goal towards improving space weather modelling and prediction.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are energetic events taking place at the Sun that can affect the space weather or the near-Earth environment by the release of vast quantities of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles. Solar active regions are the areas where most flares and CMEs originate. Studying the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs is helpful in understanding the possible cause and effect relationships between these events and features. Forecasting space weather in a timely manner is important for protecting technological systems and human life on earth and in space. The research presented in this thesis introduces novel, fully computerised, machine learning-based decision rules and models that can be used within a system design for automated space weather forecasting. The system design in this work consists of three stages: (1) designing computer tools to find the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs (2) applying machine learning algorithms to the associations' datasets and (3) studying the evolution patterns of sunspot groups using time-series methods. Machine learning algorithms are used to provide computerised learning rules and models that enable the system to provide automated prediction of CMEs, flares, and evolution patterns of sunspot groups. These numerical rules are extracted from the characteristics, associations, and time-series analysis of the available historical solar data. The training of machine learning algorithms is based on data sets created by investigating the associations among sunspots, filaments, flares, and CMEs. Evolution patterns of sunspot areas and McIntosh classifications are analysed using a statistical machine learning method, namely the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).

No description available.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are considered to be one of the most energetic events in the heliosphere. Capable of inducing geomagnetic storms on Earth that can cause damage to electronics, a pillar which the modern society we live in leans heavily upon. Being able to accurately predict the arrival of CMEs would present us with the ability to issue timely warnings to authorities and commercial actors, allowing for protective measures to be put in place minimizing the damage. In this study the predicted arrival times and speeds from the Drag Based Model (DBM) and Drag Based Ensemble Model (DBEM) were compared to observational data from a set of 12 events containing fast, Earth-directed Halo CMEs and their corresponding shocks. Although DBM was developed to model CME propagation, varying some parameters allow it to be used for estimating shock/sheath arrival. The results presented in this study indicate that on average DBM performs best when the drag-parameter γ is in the range 0.2 ≤ γ ≤ 0.3. However the variability in the results show that determining a universal value of γ for fast CMEs does not increase the consistency in the model's performance. For completeness, further investigation is needed to account for not only halo CMEs. This will allow to test broader range of variation in the DBEM input parameters.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are energetic events taking place at the Sun that can affect the space weather or the near-Earth environment by the release of vast quantities of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles. Solar active regions are the areas where most flares and CMEs originate. Studying the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs is helpful in understanding the possible cause and effect relationships between these events and features. Forecasting space weather in a timely manner is important for protecting technological systems and human life on earth and in space. The research presented in this thesis introduces novel, fully computerised, machine learning-based decision rules and models that can be used within a system design for automated space weather forecasting. The system design in this work consists of three stages: (1) designing computer tools to find the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs (2) applying machine learning algorithms to the associations¿ datasets and (3) studying the evolution patterns of sunspot groups using time-series methods. Machine learning algorithms are used to provide computerised learning rules and models that enable the system to provide automated prediction of CMEs, flares, and evolution patterns of sunspot groups. These numerical rules are extracted from the characteristics, associations, and time-series analysis of the available historical solar data. The training of machine learning algorithms is based on data sets created by investigating the associations among sunspots, filaments, flares, and CMEs. Evolution patterns of sunspot areas and McIntosh classifications are analysed using a statistical machine learning method, namely the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are phenomena that evidence the complex solar activity. During the CME evolution in the solar wind (SW) the shock and sheath (Sh) are established. With these, the transfer of energy and shock thermalization have origin through several processes like instabilities and particle acceleration. Here, we present two studies related to CMEs. In the first study, we analyze the existence of the KelvinHelmholtz instability (KHI) at the interfaces CMESh and ShSW. For this purpose, we assumed two CMEs that propagate independently in the slow and fast SW. We model velocities, densities and magnetic field strengths of sheaths, and SW in the CMEs flanks, in order to solve the Chandrasekhar condition for the magnetic KHI existence. Our results reveal that KHI formation is more probably in the CME that propagate in the slow SW than in CME propagating in the fast SW. It is due to large shear flow between the CME and the slow SW. Besides we find that the interface ShSW is more susceptible to the instability. In the second study, we examine the distributions of particle acceleration and turbulence regions around CME-driven shocks with wave-like features. We consider these corrugated shock as the result of disturbances from the bimodal SW, CME deflection, irregular CME expansion, and the ubiquitous fluctuations in the solar corona. We model smooth CME-driven shocks using polar Gaussian profiles. With the addition of wave-like functions, we obtain the corrugated shocks. For both shock types are calculated the shock normal angles between the shock normal and the radial upstream coronal magnetic field in order to classify the quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular regions linked to the particle acceleration and turbulence regions, respectively. Our calculations show the predisposition of the shock to the particle acceleration and indicate that the irregular CME expansion is the relevant factor in the particle acceleration process. We consider that these wave-like features in shocks may be essential in the study of current problems as injection particle, instabilities, downstream-jets, and shock thermalization. / As ejeções de massa coronal (do inglês coronal mass ejections, CMEs) são consideradas traçadores da atividade solar. Durante a evolução das CMEs no vento solar (do inglês solar wind, SW), o choque e o envoltório (do inglês sheath, Sh) são estabelecidos. Nesta fase, a transferência da energia e a termalização do choque podem ter origem através de vários processos, entre eles instabilidades e aceleração de partculas. Aqui nós apresentamos dois estudos relacionados às CMEs. No primeiro estudo, analisamos a existência da instabilidade KelvinHelmholtz (KHI) nas interfaces CMESh e ShSW. Para isto, supomos duas CMEs que se propagam independentemente no SW lento e rápido. Modelamos as velocidades, densidades e a intensidade do campo magnético dos envoltórios e SW nos flancos das CMEs, a fim de resolver a condição de Chandrasekhar para a existência da KHI magnética. Nossos resultados revelam que a formação da KHI pode ser mais provável na CME que se propaga no SW lento do que na CME que se propaga no SW rápido. Isto é devido a um maior cisalhamento entre a CME e o SW lento. Além disso, encontramos que a interface ShSW é ser mais suscetvel à instabilidade. No segundo estudo, examinamos as distribuições das regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência em choques ondulados com caractersticas semelhantes a ondas. Assumimos choques ondulados como resultado de perturbações do SW bimodal, deflexão da CME, expansão irregular da CME, e flutuações onipresentes na coroa solar. Construmos choques sem ondulações usando perfis Gaussianos. Com adição de funções semelhantes a ondas, obtemos os choques ondulados. Para ambos tipos de choques, calculamos os ângulos entre o vector normal ao choque e o campo magnético coronal radial, assim classificamos as regiões como quase-paralelas e quase-perpendiculares que são ligadas às regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência, respectivamente. Nossos cálculos mostram a predisposição do choque para o fenômeno de acceleração de partculas, e indicam que a expansão irregular da CME é o fator de maior relevância neste processo. Consideramos que assumir ondulações nos choques pode ser essencial nos estudos de problemas atuais como injeção de partculas, instabilidades, jatos e termalização dos choques.

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are phenomena that evidence the complex solar activity. During the CME evolution in the solar wind (SW) the shock and sheath (Sh) are established. With these, the transfer of energy and shock thermalization have origin through several processes like instabilities and particle acceleration. Here, we present two studies related to CMEs. In the first study, we analyze the existence of the KelvinHelmholtz instability (KHI) at the interfaces CMESh and ShSW. For this purpose, we assumed two CMEs that propagate independently in the slow and fast SW. We model velocities, densities and magnetic field strengths of sheaths, and SW in the CMEs flanks, in order to solve the Chandrasekhar condition for the magnetic KHI existence. Our results reveal that KHI formation is more probably in the CME that propagate in the slow SW than in CME propagating in the fast SW. It is due to large shear flow between the CME and the slow SW. Besides we find that the interface ShSW is more susceptible to the instability. In the second study, we examine the distributions of particle acceleration and turbulence regions around CME-driven shocks with wave-like features. We consider these corrugated shock as the result of disturbances from the bimodal SW, CME deflection, irregular CME expansion, and the ubiquitous fluctuations in the solar corona. We model smooth CME-driven shocks using polar Gaussian profiles. With the addition of wave-like functions, we obtain the corrugated shocks. For both shock types are calculated the shock normal angles between the shock normal and the radial upstream coronal magnetic field in order to classify the quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular regions linked to the particle acceleration and turbulence regions, respectively. Our calculations show the predisposition of the shock to the particle acceleration and indicate that the irregular CME expansion is the relevant factor in the particle acceleration process. We consider that these wave-like features in shocks may be essential in the study of current problems as injection particle, instabilities, downstream-jets, and shock thermalization. / As ejeções de massa coronal (do inglês coronal mass ejections, CMEs) são consideradas traçadores da atividade solar. Durante a evolução das CMEs no vento solar (do inglês solar wind, SW), o choque e o envoltório (do inglês sheath, Sh) são estabelecidos. Nesta fase, a transferência da energia e a termalização do choque podem ter origem através de vários processos, entre eles instabilidades e aceleração de partculas. Aqui nós apresentamos dois estudos relacionados às CMEs. No primeiro estudo, analisamos a existência da instabilidade KelvinHelmholtz (KHI) nas interfaces CMESh e ShSW. Para isto, supomos duas CMEs que se propagam independentemente no SW lento e rápido. Modelamos as velocidades, densidades e a intensidade do campo magnético dos envoltórios e SW nos flancos das CMEs, a fim de resolver a condição de Chandrasekhar para a existência da KHI magnética. Nossos resultados revelam que a formação da KHI pode ser mais provável na CME que se propaga no SW lento do que na CME que se propaga no SW rápido. Isto é devido a um maior cisalhamento entre a CME e o SW lento. Além disso, encontramos que a interface ShSW é ser mais suscetvel à instabilidade. No segundo estudo, examinamos as distribuições das regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência em choques ondulados com caractersticas semelhantes a ondas. Assumimos choques ondulados como resultado de perturbações do SW bimodal, deflexão da CME, expansão irregular da CME, e flutuações onipresentes na coroa solar. Construmos choques sem ondulações usando perfis Gaussianos. Com adição de funções semelhantes a ondas, obtemos os choques ondulados. Para ambos tipos de choques, calculamos os ângulos entre o vector normal ao choque e o campo magnético coronal radial, assim classificamos as regiões como quase-paralelas e quase-perpendiculares que são ligadas às regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência, respectivamente. Nossos cálculos mostram a predisposição do choque para o fenômeno de acceleração de partculas, e indicam que a expansão irregular da CME é o fator de maior relevância neste processo. Consideramos que assumir ondulações nos choques pode ser essencial nos estudos de problemas atuais como injeção de partculas, instabilidades, jatos e termalização dos choques.