Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / There are in excess of 500,000 Manned Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) in worldwide inventories including several thousand outside of government control. MANPADS are surface-to-air missile systems enabling the operator to launch missiles at aircraft from the ground. The most common MANPADS are the Russian SA-7 and U.S. Stinger, which feature infrared guidance systems. The concern that MANPADS can easily be acquired by non-state actors' intent on downing civilian and military aircraft has led international agencies, the U.S., and Russia to implement measures to reduce the risk of a MANPADS attack. International agencies such as the Wassenaar Arrangement work to stop illegal MANPADS proliferation. The U.S. MANPADS Defense Act and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security have implemented measures to counter the MANPADS threat. Russia has revised its export controls and forged a counter-proliferation agreement with most CIS countries. However, the multilateral initiatives to better control MANPADS stocks and transfers are far from comprehensive. A new approach to mitigating the MANPADS threat adopts elements from the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty and the Landmine Monitor. The conclusion of this thesis is that if MANPADS counter-proliferation efforts remain status quo an attack on a commercial aircraft in the western world is imminent.

WMD (weapons of mass destruction) proliferation and nuclear terrorism are the gravest dangers that the world faces. The international society established counter proliferation regimes and export control systems to prevent the proliferators from acquiring WMD and the related commodities that can be used in producing the weapons. However, there are limitations in export control systems. The trade security and facilitation should be both considered, while the proliferators attempt to establish procurement networks to circumvent export control systems and globalization has introduced challenges from the emergence of increasing number of global corpora¬tions and increasing volume of dual-use trade. By using the data mining tool of link analysis, the thesis attempts to develop a methodology to increase the coerciveness and accuracy of detecting problematic shipments from ordinary export activities in order to improve the export control management. From the research, it suggests that data mining is a feasible solution to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of export control. It can be used for discovering entities with not only explicit but also implicit proliferation concerns from a large quantity of datasets and increase the cost and difficulties of circumventing export control so that the proliferation activities are to be contained or hindered. Based on the findings, the thesis established an export control management model with data-mining solutions.