The research focuses on the utilisation of open-source information in augmentation of the all-source counterespionage endeavour. The study has the principal objective of designing, contextualising and elucidating a micro-theoretical framework for open-source environmental scanning within the civilian, statutory counterespionage sphere. The research is underpinned by the central assumption that the environmental scanning and the contextual analysis of overt information will enable the identification, description and prioritisation of espionage risks that would not necessarily have emerged through the statutory counterespionage process in which secretly collected information predominates. The environmental scanning framework is further assumed to offer a theoretical foundation to surmount a degenerative counterespionage spiral driven by an over-reliance on classified information. Flowing from the central assumption, five further assumptions formulated and tested in the research are the following: (1) A methodically demarcated referent premise enables the focusing and structuring of the counterespionage environmental scanning process amid the exponential proliferation of overt information. (2) Effective environmental scanning of overt information for counterespionage necessitates a distinctive definition of ‘risk’ and ‘threat’, as these are interlinked yet different concepts. It is therefore asserted that current notions of ‘threat’ and ‘risk’ are inadequate for feasible employment within an overt counterespionage environmental scanning framework. (3) A framework for overt counterespionage environmental scanning has as its primary requirement the ability to identify diverse risks, descriptively and predicatively, on a strategic as well as a tactical level. (4) The degree of adversity in the relationship between a government and an adversary constitutes the principal indicator and determinant of an espionage risk. (5) The logical accommodation of a framework for overt counterespionage environmental scanning necessitates a distinctive counterintelligence cycle, as existing conceptualisations of the intelligence cycle are inadequate. The study’s objective and the testing of these five assumptions are pursued on both the theoretical and pragmatic-utilitarian levels. The framework for counterespionage, open-source environmental scanning and risk assessment is presented as part of a multilayered unison of alternative theoretical propositions on the all-source intelligence, counterintelligence and counterespionage processes. It is furthermore advanced from the premise of an alternative proposition on an integrated approach to open-source intelligence. On a pragmatic-utilitarian level, the framework’s design is informed and its application elucidated through an examination of the 21st century espionage reality confronting the nation state, contemporary statutory counterintelligence measures and the ‘real-life’ difficulties of open-source intelligence confronting practitioners. Although with certain qualifications, the assumptions are in the main validated by the research. The research furthermore affirms this as an exploratory thesis in a largely unexplored field. / Thesis (Ph.D)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Political Sciences / Unrestricted

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / Cyberespionage is a prolific threat that undermines the power projection capacity of the United States through reduced economic prowess and a narrowing of the technical advantage employed by the American military. International attempts to limit hostile cyber activity through the development of institutions, normative patterns of behavior, or assimilation of existing laws do not provide the American national security decision maker with a timely or effective solution to address these threats. Unfortunately, the stove-piped, redundant and inefficient nature of the U.S. counterintelligence community does not deliver a viable alternative to mitigating cyberespionage in an effective manner. Instituting a domestic and international micro-restructuring approach within the Department of Defense (DoD) addresses the need for increased effectiveness within an environment of fiscal responsibility. Domestic restructuring places emphasis on developing a forcing mechanism that compels the DoD counterintelligence services to develop joint approaches for combating cyberespionage by directly addressing the needs of the Combatant Commands. International restructuring places an emphasis on expanding cybersecurity cooperation to like-minded nations and specifically explores the opportunity and challenges for increased cyber cooperation with Taiwan. This approach recognizes that Taiwan and the United States are both negatively affected from hostile cyber activity derived from within the People’s Republic of China.