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Open-source environmental scanning and risk assessment in the statutory counterespionage milieuDuvenage, Petrus Carolus 23 May 2011 (has links)
The research focuses on the utilisation of open-source information in
augmentation of the all-source counterespionage endeavour. The study has the
principal objective of designing, contextualising and elucidating a micro-theoretical
framework for open-source environmental scanning within the civilian, statutory
counterespionage sphere.
The research is underpinned by the central assumption that the environmental
scanning and the contextual analysis of overt information will enable the
identification, description and prioritisation of espionage risks that would not
necessarily have emerged through the statutory counterespionage process in
which secretly collected information predominates. The environmental scanning
framework is further assumed to offer a theoretical foundation to surmount a
degenerative counterespionage spiral driven by an over-reliance on classified
information. Flowing from the central assumption, five further assumptions formulated
and tested in the research are the following: (1) A methodically demarcated referent premise enables the focusing and
structuring of the counterespionage environmental scanning process amid the
exponential proliferation of overt information.
(2) Effective environmental scanning of overt information for counterespionage
necessitates a distinctive definition of ‘risk’ and ‘threat’, as these are
interlinked yet different concepts. It is therefore asserted that current notions
of ‘threat’ and ‘risk’ are inadequate for feasible employment within an overt
counterespionage environmental scanning framework. (3) A framework for overt counterespionage environmental scanning has as its
primary requirement the ability to identify diverse risks, descriptively and
predicatively, on a strategic as well as a tactical level. (4) The degree of adversity in the relationship between a government and an
adversary constitutes the principal indicator and determinant of an espionage
risk. (5) The logical accommodation of a framework for overt counterespionage
environmental scanning necessitates a distinctive counterintelligence cycle,
as existing conceptualisations of the intelligence cycle are inadequate.
The study’s objective and the testing of these five assumptions are pursued on both the
theoretical and pragmatic-utilitarian levels. The framework for counterespionage,
open-source environmental scanning and risk assessment is presented as part of
a multilayered unison of alternative theoretical propositions on the all-source
intelligence, counterintelligence and counterespionage processes. It is furthermore
advanced from the premise of an alternative proposition on an integrated
approach to open-source intelligence. On a pragmatic-utilitarian level, the
framework’s design is informed and its application elucidated through an
examination of the 21st century espionage reality confronting the nation state,
contemporary statutory counterintelligence measures and the ‘real-life’ difficulties
of open-source intelligence confronting practitioners.
Although with certain qualifications, the assumptions are in the main validated by
the research. The research furthermore affirms this as an exploratory thesis in a
largely unexplored field. / Thesis (Ph.D)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Political Sciences / Unrestricted
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Increasing Effectiveness of U.S. Counterintelligence: Domestic and International Micro-Restructuring Initiatives to MitigateFerguson, Cody J. 20 August 2012
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. / Cyberespionage is a prolific threat that undermines the power projection capacity of the United States through
reduced economic prowess and a narrowing of the technical advantage employed by the American military.
International attempts to limit hostile cyber activity through the development of institutions, normative patterns of
behavior, or assimilation of existing laws do not provide the American national security decision maker with a timely
or effective solution to address these threats. Unfortunately, the stove-piped, redundant and inefficient nature of the
U.S. counterintelligence community does not deliver a viable alternative to mitigating cyberespionage in an effective
manner. Instituting a domestic and international micro-restructuring approach within the Department of Defense
(DoD) addresses the need for increased effectiveness within an environment of fiscal responsibility. Domestic
restructuring places emphasis on developing a forcing mechanism that compels the DoD counterintelligence services
to develop joint approaches for combating cyberespionage by directly addressing the needs of the Combatant
Commands. International restructuring places an emphasis on expanding cybersecurity cooperation to like-minded
nations and specifically explores the opportunity and challenges for increased cyber cooperation with Taiwan. This
approach recognizes that Taiwan and the United States are both negatively affected from hostile cyber activity
derived from within the People’s Republic of China.
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