Credit derivatives played a large role in intensifying losses during the subprime lending crisis, which began in 2007 in the US and spiralled into a financial crisis in 2008. One of the major reasons for this descent into financial crisis was the uncertainty about the exposure of some systemically important financial institutions through their derivative positions, specifically credit derivative instruments such as credit default swaps (CDSs). Using data obtained from the SARB, the study found that prior to the crisis, the size of the South African OTC credit derivatives market was increasing steadily. However, the 2008 financial crisis temporarily stunted this growth, and the size of the market declined. Since 2010, the growth of the market has once again been on an upward trajectory. The study examines recent international and local regulations relating to OTC derivatives and makes policy recommendations for South Africa. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

A credit default swap is a contract that ensures protection against losses occurring due to a default event of an certain entity. It is crucial to know how default should be modelled for valuation or estimating of credit derivatives. In this dissertation, we first review the structural approach for modelling credit risk. The model is an approach for assessing the credit risk of a firm by typifying the firms equity as a European call option on its assets, with the strike price (or exercise price) being the promised debt repayment at the maturity. The model can be used to determine the probability that the firm will default (default probability) and the Credit Spread. We second concentrate on the valuation of credit derivatives, in particular the Credit Default Swap (CDS) when the hazard rate (or even of default) is modelled as the Vasicek-type model. The other objective is, by using South African credit spread data on defaultable bonds to estimate parameters on CIR and Vasicek-type Hazard rate models such as stochastic differential equation models of term structure. The parameters are estimated numerically by the Moment Method. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2013.