Abstract According to the latest statistical data from Ministry of Finance, it is found that domestic consuming loan is growing up continuously these years. Up to the end of September in 2000 the sum of this business is 3984.9 billion. It is equal to 34.1% among loan of native banks. Personal small-scale consumer credit is increasing at 18% rate per year from 148.6 billion in 1994 to 365.1 billion in the end of September in 2000. It is developed vigorously, and even to be the main profit for banks. This is because consumers have slowly changed their concepts about how to use their money. Another reason is that the banks are actively to provide small-scale consumer credit with easy formality. But its potential risk is becoming higher since depression in economy and unemployment are getting higher. ¡§How to do the credit estimation for your consumers; how to make the lost of breaking an appointment lower¡¨ is the most urgent for the banks who would like to have good performance in the field of consuming finance. This research takes 1764 consumers who have small-scale consumer credit from a specific bank as samples for analysis. We found 29 elements that will affect the payment from literature and credit estimation from other branches. After concluding 6 types of credit risk, 25 influent elements offered by sample bank are listed for the purpose of analysis. ¡§K-W independent check¡¨ and ¡§Spearman¡¦s rho related analysis¡¨ are used to gain 17 variables. They are interactive and remarkable for credit. The summarized introduction of this research is as follows. 1. Age is notable for payment. The risk between ages of 41 ~45 is higher than the average. Seniority around 7 ~10 years is also dangerous. The above appearance is figured out to be concerned about transition of economical environment such as depression in economy and unemployment. The thought ¡§ higher ages or seniority means lower risk¡¨ should be done some amendment. 2. Actual net income should be considered while estimating the credit. Higher income is not necessarily equal to lower risk. People with high income were easily to obtain more loans since they would have better payment capacity. It is observed from credit estimation of each bank. In fact income is unable to reflect payment capacity. Debt will be important reason to influence payment capacity. 3. Having real property doesn¡¦t mean having no risk. We could find that consumer¡¦s property usually took large percentage in credit estimation. Sometimes consumers would become dangerous since they had debt for real property. The banks had better to correct their illusion ¡¨land is wealth¡¨ as soon as possible. 4. More or less guarantees are not essential for credit risk. Simple and fast formality appeals to the popular while the banks are promoting small-scale consumer credit. In the past the banks believed that more guarantees could lower the risk. It is wrong and will be the block in developing business. The banks should focus on payment capacity as main accordance for credit estimation. Key words: Consumers loan; Credit risk management, Credit scoring system.

Abstract According to a survey conducted by Rock (1984), the major factors of influenced credit risk are (1) the relationship with other creditor, (2) income, (3) loan-income ration, (4) profession, (5) immovable property, (6) check & deposit account. And, the sure way to score with lenders are (1) rules of thumb & subjective judgment, (2) credit rating system, (3) credit scoring system, and (4) expert system. The purpose of the present study is to examine the relationships between sex, age, income, profession, assets, the purpose of loan, employment information, credit references, credit limit, total installment loan account by the consumer, total number of inquiries and the consumer¡¦s payment records. The results of this search indicate that: 1. The previous stereo type thinking of banking industry always treat the military officials as wall as police officials are risky groups to consumer credit loan. However, this study found the contrary result. The payment over due rate is comparatively lower than that of other customer groups. The conclusion is that military officials and police officials are potentially good customers to banking system in terms of profit margin against risk. 2. From the credit scoring system of banking industry. That the customers are between 35 to 50s should be better than those age between 20 to 30s. However, this study demonstrates the other direction that customers with age below 35years old always better than those who over 35years old to the banking creditability actual performance. 3. The banking industry assume the married people will be a better group compared with non-married group on the money collect of the loan they made. However this study proves that creditability performance in sequence is (i) age below 35 and singer is the best. (ii) those married is the second while.(iii)age over 35 and non- married group is the worst one. 4. Most of people think those who have consumer credit loan from bank and would not want their family to be aware of their personal loan may have higher chance of payment over due. However, the statistics study from bank branch A indicates that this kind of customers (don¡¦t want family member know about loan) are the best group on payment over due (only 5.5%). While those who agree to let family member aware are the second (7.5%), and others with no comment are the worst.