The pace of development in Canada's North has renewed concerns about the potential cumulative effects of increasing industrial growth on fragile northern ecosystems. Recent developments in the diamond industry in the Slave Geological Province have highlighted the potential additive and synergistic effects of such development. For example, Aboriginal communities are worried about the health of the Bathurst caribou herd, which is considered central to their way of life. This concern is compounded by the lack of integration of environmental assessment and planning efforts, which could serve to better protect the environment. This research considers the challenges associated with the assessment of cumulative effects, and various approaches to meet these challenges. Diamond mining in the Slave Geological Province, including the BHP and Diavik diamond mines, is used as a case study. Four sustainability-based criteria are developed to evaluate the past and existing situation in the diamond region, and to form the basis for recommendations that would contribute to a more holistic approach to integrating cumulative effects considerations into environmental assessment and regional planning. The analysis demonstrates that although several mechanisms are currently in place to assess cumulative environmental effects, no single initiative fully meets each of the four criteria. However, existing tools can be used and supplemented to identify appropriate response options. The sustainability-based criteria developed here can contribute to further research on cumulative effects assessment and sustainability. The sustainability-based criteria developed here can be adopted for other case studies, to identify strengths and weaknesses, and to develop case specific recommendations for a more holistic approach to integrating cumulative effects considerations into environmental assessment and regional planning. This examination of how cumulative effects assessment has been approached in the Slave Geological Province also provides insight into the broader implications of regional cumulative effects management.

In Canada, interest in regional strategic environmental assessment as a framework for assessing cumulative environmental effects is growing. Strategic environmental assessment, and in particular regional strategic environmental assessment, is generally regarded as the preferred assessment framework within which to address cumulative effects due to its broad scale of assessment and its focus on influencing future development. However, very little research has been done to confront the challenges, either conceptually or methodologically, in operationalizing strategic environmental assessment at a regional scale and in assessing cumulative environmental effects in this regional and strategic context. This dissertation advances work in this area by defining a conceptual framework and generic methodology for regional strategic environmental assessment that deliberately integrates cumulative effects considerations.<p> The research methodology includes a literature review, framework and case reviews, and three sets of interviews with Canadian and international practitioners, academics, and administrators knowledgeable on strategic environmental assessment and cumulative effects assessment issues. The research results are reported in four manuscripts. The first manuscript presents a typology of current approaches to regional cumulative effects assessment. The second manuscript reviews lessons from recent attempts at regional-scale, strategically-focused environmental analysis in Canada that include an impact assessment component and explicit attention to cumulative environmental effects. The third manuscript presents a structured framework for regional strategic environmental assessment in Canada, and the fourth manuscript discusses conceptual and methodological challenges that accompany the integration of strategic environmental assessment and cumulative effects assessment.<p> Significant findings include that cumulative effects assessment does indeed represent a significant conceptual and methodological challenge in a strategic assessment context and that cumulative effects assessment in this context requires more than simply adding up direct effects. Further, this research indicates that the seminal contribution of regional strategic environmental assessment is to determine the pace and nature of future development in a region, including significant regional environmental thresholds, targets, and limits; and to inform decision makers of the broader, the slower-moving, the farther-reaching, and perhaps the more insidious currents of environmental change. Moving forward, there is a need to further develop and demonstrate approaches to cumulative effects assessment in a strategic context, develop a supportive legislative and regulatory framework for regional strategic environmental assessment in Canada, and define the unique contribution of regional strategic assessment in relation to regional planning and management.

Water quality is a critical component of aquatic ecosystems, and impairments caused by the cumulative effects of human activities can threaten water security, ecosystem health and biodiversity, and ecosystem services that support human livelihoods, health, and well-being. Protecting water quality and managing the human activities that can contribute to cumulative effects remains the most important, though poorly understood and under-researched problem facing sustainable water quality management in Canada (Johns & Sproule-Jones, Schindler & Donahue, 2006) and around the world (Patterson, Smith, & Bellamy, 2013; UN-Water, 2011). For decades, federal and provincial governments in Canada have introduced, and experimented with, policy tools that are intended to assess and manage cumulative effects, yet, point source management approaches remain by far, the preferred policy tool. The results of this study indicate that part of the reason why cumulative effects assessment and management approaches have not evolved is because policy tools intended to address questions about environmental governance are being implemented as environmental management tools. Questions of environmental governance should be inclusive and focused on how the environment is used now and in the future for societal benefits. Conversely, management questions are narrower in scope and serve to operationalize these goals. This research highlights the challenge with identifying and developing critical relationships between the array of agencies and institutions responsible for governing and managing water quality, as well as the need to devise strategies to ensure these relationships are maintained over time if progress towards managing cumulative effects to water quality can be achieved. / Graduate

The environmental problems facing the world today are largely attributable to anthropogenic activities and landscape change. Addressing these challenges in an evidence-based way requires an understanding of precisely how species and ecosystems are responding to human impacts. Discerning linkages between stressors and their ecological repercussions, and using this to inform conservation, can be challenging due to the complexity and uncertainty of ecological research. I focused on the responses of five wide-ranging large mammal species – gray wolf (Canis lupus), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), coyote (Canis latrans), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces) – to human footprint (measure of human infrastructure and landscape change), using 12 years (2001-2013) of snowtrack surveys conducted across the boreal forest of Alberta. I explored three key challenges to discerning the linkages between ecological dynamics and management actions. First, I asked whether the direction and magnitude of species responses vary depending on the spatial extent and grain of the study. Second, I asked whether these species respond more strongly to individual footprint features or to the cumulative effects of footprint (measured as total footprint), and whether responses to footprint are consistent across species. Third, I evaluated the utility of thresholds for large mammal management and asked whether there is evidence for consistent threshold responses to total footprint across scales. In addressing the first two questions, I evaluated a set of generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMM) relating the relative abundance of each species to individual and cumulative effects of human footprint, using an information-theoretic approach. I compared the direction of species responses across our regional study area (approximately 400,000 km2) to those reported in previous smaller-extent studies (median 1,525 km2), and compared responses across three spatial grains (250m, 1500m, and 5000m transect buffers). In addressing the third question, I conducted a review on the utility of ecological thresholds, described as abrupt changes in the response to a continuous driver, for large mammal management. I further tested for thresholds in species responses to total footprint by comparing linear models (logistic regression) to piecewise regression models. I compared threshold values between two grains (approximately 33km2 - 1500m transect buffer, and 5500km2 - grouping transects into clusters), and across four regions (boreal forest extent, three landscape planning units). I found that the direction of species responses varied with spatial extent, but not grain, and that species responded strongly to a broad suite of footprint features, indicating the need to manage for cumulative effects. Despite the appeal of ecological thresholds, using these as targets is challenging and the success of doing so has rarely been evaluated. I found threshold models to be better supported than linear ones across species, but due to variability and uncertainty in threshold values, the results are more suited as guidelines or hypotheses to be further tested, as opposed to specific management targets. Translating research on complex ecological systems into management actions is a continuing challenge, yet, ongoing biodiversity monitoring and adaptive management may refine our existing tools, and ultimately lead to better environmental stewardship. / Graduate / 2017-09-05 / 0329

Increased land use intensity has adversely affected aquatic ecosystems within Canada. Activities that occur over the landscape are individually minor but collectively significant when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions, and are defined as cumulative effects. Existing approaches to cumulative effects assessment for river systems within Canada are ineffective. This thesis aims to improve the practice of cumulative effects assessment by evaluating current methodology for linking landscape change and river response over a large spatiotemporal scale. As part of this goal, I offer a framework for better incorporating science into current practices for cumulative effects assessment. The framework addresses the challenges involved in cumulative effects assessment, such as defining appropriate spatial and temporal scale, complex ecological and hydrologic pathways, predictive analysis, and monitoring. I then test the framework over a large spatiotemporal scale using a case study of the lower reaches of the Athabasca River Basin, Alberta. Three objectives are addressed: 1) changes in land use and land cover in the lower ARB for several census dates (1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001) between 1976 (historic) and 2006 (current day) are identified; 2) linkages between landscape change and river water quality and quantity response are evaluated; and 3) results of the different methods used to link landscape stressors with stream responses are compared. Results show that the landscape has changed dramatically between 1976 and 2006, documented by increases in forest harvesting, oil sands developments, and agricultural intensity. Secondly, results suggest that linear regression tests combined with regression trees are useful for capturing the strongest associations between landscape stressors and river response variables. For instance, water abstraction and agricultural activities have a significant impact on solute concentrations. This suggests that water abstraction and agriculture are important indicators to consider when conducting a watershed cumulative effect assessment on a similar spatiotemporal scale. The thesis has strong implications for the need for improved water quality and quantity monitoring of Canada‟s rivers. The research provides a means of identifying appropriate tools for improved watershed cumulative effects assessment for scientists and land managers involved in the environmental impact assessment process and protection of Canada‟s watersheds.

The accumulating impacts from human development are threatening water quality and availability in the watersheds of Western Canada. While environmental impact assessment (EIA) is tasked with identifying such cumulative impacts, the practice is limited to individual projects, is not widely applied, overlooks activities occurring on the landscape, and fails to capture the effects of multiple projects over time. Limitations of the project-by-project approach are spurring the emergence of a regional framework for assessing aquatic cumulative effects within watershed boundaries. Watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA) will need a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators for assessment across the watershed, but it is not clear how such valued ecosystem components (VECs) and related measurable parameters should be identified. This study examined how aquatic VECs and indicators were used within project-based EIA in the South Saskatchewan River watershed and considered whether they could be scaled up for use in WCEA. A semi-quantitative analysis compared a hierarchy of assessment components and measurable parameters identified in the environmental impact statements of 28 federal screening, 5 federal comprehensive and 2 provincial environmental assessments from the South Saskatchewan River watershed, and examined factors affecting aquatic VEC selection. While provincial assessments were available online or at a central archive, federal assessments were difficult to access. Results showed that regulatory compliance was the dominant factor influencing VEC selection, followed by the preferences of government agencies with different mandates, and that provincial licensing arrangements interfered with VEC selection. The frequency of VECs and indicators used for aquatic assessment within EIA does not reflect the aquatic cumulative effect assessment (CEA) priorities for the watershed. The effective selection of VECs and indicators for aquatic cumulative effects assessment in practice requires both the implementation of WCEA and updating of guidelines for project-based EIA.

Increased land use intensity has adversely affected aquatic ecosystems within Canada. Activities that occur over the landscape are individually minor but collectively significant when added to other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions, and are defined as cumulative effects. Existing approaches to cumulative effects assessment for river systems within Canada are ineffective. This thesis aims to improve the practice of cumulative effects assessment by evaluating current methodology for linking landscape change and river response over a large spatiotemporal scale. As part of this goal, I offer a framework for better incorporating science into current practices for cumulative effects assessment. The framework addresses the challenges involved in cumulative effects assessment, such as defining appropriate spatial and temporal scale, complex ecological and hydrologic pathways, predictive analysis, and monitoring. I then test the framework over a large spatiotemporal scale using a case study of the lower reaches of the Athabasca River Basin, Alberta. Three objectives are addressed: 1) changes in land use and land cover in the lower ARB for several census dates (1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001) between 1976 (historic) and 2006 (current day) are identified; 2) linkages between landscape change and river water quality and quantity response are evaluated; and 3) results of the different methods used to link landscape stressors with stream responses are compared. Results show that the landscape has changed dramatically between 1976 and 2006, documented by increases in forest harvesting, oil sands developments, and agricultural intensity. Secondly, results suggest that linear regression tests combined with regression trees are useful for capturing the strongest associations between landscape stressors and river response variables. For instance, water abstraction and agricultural activities have a significant impact on solute concentrations. This suggests that water abstraction and agriculture are important indicators to consider when conducting a watershed cumulative effect assessment on a similar spatiotemporal scale. The thesis has strong implications for the need for improved water quality and quantity monitoring of Canada‟s rivers. The research provides a means of identifying appropriate tools for improved watershed cumulative effects assessment for scientists and land managers involved in the environmental impact assessment process and protection of Canada‟s watersheds.

The accumulating impacts from human development are threatening water quality and availability in the watersheds of Western Canada. While environmental impact assessment (EIA) is tasked with identifying such cumulative impacts, the practice is limited to individual projects, is not widely applied, overlooks activities occurring on the landscape, and fails to capture the effects of multiple projects over time. Limitations of the project-by-project approach are spurring the emergence of a regional framework for assessing aquatic cumulative effects within watershed boundaries. Watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA) will need a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators for assessment across the watershed, but it is not clear how such valued ecosystem components (VECs) and related measurable parameters should be identified. This study examined how aquatic VECs and indicators were used within project-based EIA in the South Saskatchewan River watershed and considered whether they could be scaled up for use in WCEA. A semi-quantitative analysis compared a hierarchy of assessment components and measurable parameters identified in the environmental impact statements of 28 federal screening, 5 federal comprehensive and 2 provincial environmental assessments from the South Saskatchewan River watershed, and examined factors affecting aquatic VEC selection. While provincial assessments were available online or at a central archive, federal assessments were difficult to access. Results showed that regulatory compliance was the dominant factor influencing VEC selection, followed by the preferences of government agencies with different mandates, and that provincial licensing arrangements interfered with VEC selection. The frequency of VECs and indicators used for aquatic assessment within EIA does not reflect the aquatic cumulative effect assessment (CEA) priorities for the watershed. The effective selection of VECs and indicators for aquatic cumulative effects assessment in practice requires both the implementation of WCEA and updating of guidelines for project-based EIA.

This dissertation presents a clear and systematic method for conducting cumulative effects assessments in the United States in a manner consistent with the 1997 guidelines of the President's Council on Environmental Quality and the 1999 guidance of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Federal Activities. This method has been developed in a collaborative process with federal and State of Alaska regulatory agency scrutiny during the renewal of the federal and state right-of-way leases for the Trans Alaska Pipeline System in 2004 and in the June 2004 Alaska Groundfish Fisheries Final Programmatic Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement prepared for the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Region. The dissertation describes the process through which the cumulative effects assessment method presented here was developed and presents this approach as a predictive tool with the potential to improve the implementation of sustainable development in the United States. In this context, the dissertation presents an overview of sustainability theory, distinguishing and reviewing representative examples from two major sectors of the sustainable development literature, called here the intergenerational equity strand and the human development strand. It identifies weaknesses in three key areas of the intergenerational equity strand -- lack of theorectical cohesion, insufficient tools for implementation, and an imbalance between normative goals and practical feasibility -- and argues that the human development strand, with its empirical emphasis on metrics and institutional frameworks, offers a model that can serve as a basis for unifying the two strands by providing a theoretical core, implementation tools, and practicable goals. Finally, the dissertation argues that sustainable development is implemented most effectively when it is enabled by institutions that facilitate public involvement, particularly participation by the broadest feasible representation of the affected stakeholders, and that such institutional mobilization can provide a stable and enduring basis to foster the intergenerational equity that is the central, distinguishing feature of sustainability. / text

River restoration is believed to have the greatest chance of success when action is considered in the broader context of the riverscape. However, methods are lacking to fully integrate systemic connectivity into decision-making. Optimisation, a method of prioritisation, is capable of accounting for longitudinal connectivity, spatial interdependence, and cumulative effects of anthropogenic barriers such as dams and culverts. In addition, optimisation can help ensure that limited restoration funds are efficiently allocated. Despite these advantages, it remains under-employed. I present optimisation models for maximising connectivity within a river network (i.e., undirected connectivity) and connectivity between the network and its outflow (i.e., directed connectivity) and demonstrate their application on three river networks in Nova Scotia, Canada. Non-additive cumulative effects of barriers and key budget thresholds that yielded better returns on investment were observed. The methods and models address current challenges in implementation of the optimisation approach to systematic river restoration planning. / Master's Thesis