by Yan Yuk Fung. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 41-42). / ABSTRACT --- p.i / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.ii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.iv / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- BENEFITS AND TYPES OF CONVERTIBILITY --- p.3 / Economic Benefits --- p.3 / Current Account Convertibility --- p.4 / Capital Account Convertibility --- p.5 / Chapter III. --- TRENDS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IN CHINA --- p.7 / Characterics --- p.7 / Trend of Current Account Balance --- p.8 / Trend of Capital Account Balance --- p.9 / Cyclical Nature of Balance of Payments --- p.10 / Chapter IV. --- EVOLUTION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE REGIME SINCE 1978 --- p.12 / Trade Liberalization --- p.12 / Control on Current Account Transactions --- p.13 / Foreign Exchange Retention System and Swap Centres --- p.14 / Chapter V. --- DEVELOPMENT OF CONVERTIBILITY IN 1994 --- p.16 / Achieved Convertibility on Trade Related Transactions --- p.16 / China's Choice of A Managed Floating Rate Regime --- p.18 / Chapter VI. --- CONDITIONS FOR CONVERTIBILITY --- p.21 / Stable Domestic Price --- p.21 / Favourable Balance of Payment --- p.22 / Sufficient Foreign Reserve --- p.23 / Exchange Rate Stability --- p.24 / Liberalization Measures on Service Transactions Implemented in 1996 --- p.24 / Chapter VII. --- RISKS OF CONVERTIBILITY --- p.26 / Peso Depreciation in Mexico --- p.26 / Export Slowing Down in China --- p.27 / Cumulative Inflation --- p.28 / Budget Deficit --- p.29 / Risk of Import Surging with China Entering WTO --- p.30 / Foreign Direct Investment Slowing Down --- p.30 / Political Risks within China and Across the Formosa Strait --- p.31 / Chapter VIII. --- POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS --- p.33 / Maintain Balance of Payments --- p.33 / Fiscal & Monetary Discipline --- p.34 / Improve Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Market --- p.35 / Strengthen Economic and Financial Reforms --- p.35 / Avoid Premature Capital Account Convertibility --- p.36 / Chapter IX. --- CONCLUSION --- p.38 / RMB Full Current Account Convertibility Achievable Before 2000 --- p.38 / Business Implications --- p.39 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.41

by Liu Shiang Ling. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 48). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.v / CHAPTER / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- CHINA'S RENMINBI SYSTEM --- p.3 / Overview and Historical Development --- p.3 / 1953-1972 --- p.3 / 1973-1978 --- p.4 / 1979-1993 --- p.4 / 1994-1996 --- p.6 / The Exchange Rate Determination --- p.7 / Demand & Supply --- p.7 / The Balance of Payments --- p.8 / Inflation --- p.10 / Interest Rate --- p.10 / The Condition of Economic Development --- p.11 / Expectation --- p.11 / The Fiscal Policy --- p.12 / Forecasting Exchange Rate --- p.12 / Fundamental Analysis --- p.14 / Chapter III. --- CHINA'S PROPERTY MARKET --- p.15 / The History of China's Property Market --- p.15 / Pre-1949 --- p.15 / 1949-1979 --- p.15 / 1979-1991 --- p.16 / 1992-1996 --- p.18 / China's Real Estate Market Overview --- p.20 / Shanghai's Property Market --- p.21 / Risk Analysis --- p.22 / Return --- p.22 / Risks --- p.23 / Chapter IV. --- THEORETICAL ANALYSIS --- p.25 / Currency Conversion and Exchange Rate Risks --- p.25 / Hypothesis --- p.26 / The Short Run --- p.26 / The Long Run --- p.27 / Chapter V. --- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS --- p.29 / Targets of Study --- p.29 / Questionnaire --- p.29 / Chapter VI. --- ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS --- p.30 / Primary Source Data --- p.30 / Secondary Source Data --- p.32 / Analysis --- p.34 / The Short Run --- p.34 / The Long Run --- p.35 / Political Conditions --- p.35 / Economic Conditions --- p.36 / Social Conditions --- p.37 / Market Conditions --- p.37 / Land Investment --- p.38 / Conclusion --- p.39 / Chapter VII. --- RECOMMENDATIONS AND ADVICE TO DEVELOPERS --- p.40 / The Depreciation of Renminbi --- p.40 / The Appreciation of Renminbi --- p.41 / The Chinese Government Policy --- p.42 / Long-Term Consideration --- p.43 / APPENDIX --- p.45