This study investigates the validity of the twin deficits hypothesis for the Turkish quarterly data over the 1988:1-2005:2 periods. To this end, we consider a VAR variable space containing budget deficits, current account deficits, real output, real interest rates and real exchange rates and employ cointegration, equilibrium/error correction mechanism techniques along with Granger-non-causality tests and impulse response analyses. The empirical results from decompositions of the budget and current account deficits into their cyclical and structural components suggest that both CAD and BD are counter-cyclical. The twin deficit hypothesis, consistent with the conventional Mundell-Flemming framework, postulates that current account and budget deficits move together in the long run and the causality runs from the former to the latter. The results from Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration procedures support either the twin divergence or the Ricardian equivalence postulations but not the twin deficits hypothesis. Current account deficits and budget deficits are also found to be jointly endogenous. The short-run impacts of budget deficits on current account deficits are found to be mainly through the real exchange rate and real interest rate channels.

Στην παρούσα εργασία εξετάζουμε τους προσδιοριστικούς παράγοντες των δημοσιονομικών ελλειμμάτων καθώς και των ελλειμμάτων στο ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών συναλλαγών. Επίσης, προσπαθούμε να ερευνήσουμε την επίδραση των δημοσιονομικών ελλειμμάτων στα ελλείμματα του ισοζυγίου τρεχουσών συναλλαγών (Υπόθεση δίδυμων ελλειμμάτων). Για το σκοπό αυτό χρησιμοποιούμε ένα δείγμα 27 χωρών του ΟΟΣΑ καλύπτοντας την περίοδο 1994-2006. / In this paper, we examine the determinants of budget deficits and current account deficits. Furthermore, we try to investigate the effect of budget deficits to current account deficits (Twin deficits hypothesis). For this purpose, we use a sample of 27 OECD countries covering the period 1994-2006.