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A Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone climatology: analysis of variability under a changing climatePillay, Micheal Teron January 2019 (has links)
A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2019 / Tropical cyclones are becoming more intense and the locations at which they form and
attain their lifetime maximum intensities are migrating poleward, exposing more regions to
tropical cyclone impacts. This study investigated a new climatology for Southern
Hemisphere tropical cyclones, aimed to update and re-examine the previous tropical
cyclone climatology from the canonical works of Gray (1968, 1979). The optimal and
minimum ranges of thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables during tropical
cyclogenesis were determined, to define the conditions at which the majority of Southern
Hemisphere tropical cyclones are generated. The change over time of tropical cyclone
activity and the magnitude of the climate drivers at the 1000and 850mb levels was also
examined. The sea surface temperatures of 27.5-28.5°C is observed as the optimal range at
which a majority of storms undergo genesis. However, the lowest observed magnitude at
which genesis was possible is 24°C. This challenges the 26.5°C threshold for genesis in the
Southern Hemisphere. Based on factor analysis weightings and multivariate regression, sea
surface temperature, air temperature and relative humidity also account for a relatively
large amount of variability in the formation process of tropical cyclones, compared to the
other climate variables examined. Over 1980-2016, an increase for Southern Hemisphere
tropical cyclone maximum intensity of 2.4 m.s-1 per decade is observed. Of the climate
drivers measured at the point of genesis; omega, meridional shear, sea surface temperature
and solar flux display statistically significant correlations with tropical cyclone intensity. Sea
surface temperature, air temperature, solar flux and vertical shear at the point of genesis
for Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, demonstrate statistically significant increases in magnitude, while omega and relative humidity indicate a decreasing trend. The increase in thermodynamic variables and their relationship to storm intensity infers that a warming climate is capable of influencing tropical cyclone intensity. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode and volcanic eruption events indicated a statistically significant relationship to metrics of tropical cyclone activity, mainly intensity and longitude of storm genesis. The tropical cyclone climatology established here by providing an up to date seasonality and background of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity, can assist impact and risk assessment studies in areas potentially vulnerable to tropical cyclone impacts within the Southern Hemisphere. / TL (2020)
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