This study explores the kinds of bargaining strategies which have been used and can be used by the less developed countries, designated as "the South", in trade negotiations with the developed countries, designated as "the North". It takes as its point of departure the North-South axis of conflict in international relations, namely, the conflict between the rich, advanced and industrial nations and the poor, newly emergent and developing nations. It focuses specifically on Southern bargaining in one sub-area of North-South trade - international tin accords. The study is presented in three chapters. The first chapter presents an overview of North-South trade relationships and issues. The second chapter begins a case study of North-South confrontation in tin agreements. The final chapter concludes with a check-list of bargaining strategies which have been employed or may be employed by Southern producing countries in tin negotiations. The major finding of the study is that Southern bargaining in tin accords has relied most heavily on strategies of normative appeal based on the UNCTAD 'ethos'. In particular, bargaining strategies which appeal to Northern altruism and democratic norms are especially popular. The second most used group of strategies are those which appeal to self-interest. In general, it was found that Southern bargaining has not been very effective. It is therefore recommended that Southern countries should (1) employ more intensively strategies of normative appeal other than those based on the UNCTAD ethic; (2) employ more intensively strategies which appeal to self-interests of Northern countries; and (3) employ strategies which demonstrate commitment to bargaining positions, and if need be, to demonstrate such commitment by the use of threats / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

Public investment in transportation forms a large part of the capital budget of many developing countries. In view of the scarcity of development capital, it is essential that the available capital be used to the best advantage. This indicates the need for careful analyses of proposed public investments in transportation. Until quite recently, transportation investment evaluation in underdeveloped countries was almost entirely within the preserve of engineers, with economists taking little active interest in the spatial aspects of economic activity. Economists have recently taken a much more active interest, and new methods of evaluation are constantly being developed and older ones improved. However, there are still some unresolved methodological problems in the evaluation of public transportation investment, and a number of deficiencies in the application of the concepts and methods which have been developed. The objective of this thesis is to describe and evaluate the methods of transportation investment analysis now in use, identify the deficiencies in the existing methods and in their applications, and to propose methods of overcoming the deficiencies. The research which has resulted in this thesis has been in three forms. One was a review of the published literature pertaining to public investment in transportation in underdeveloped countries. The second was in the author's experience in transportation investment analysis in Canada and overseas, for agencies such as the Government of Canada and the World Bank. This experience presented the opportunity of reviewing unpublished writings on the subject, and of reviewing the methodology used and results produced by various consultants and study groups in a wide range of transportation investment analyses in underdeveloped countries. Much of this material, particularly the consultants' reports, is held confidential by the World Bank and by the governments of the countries involved, and therefore cannot be specifically cited in references. The third source of information was in discussions with consultants working in this field, both in Canada and abroad; with representatives of the governments receiving foreign aid for transportation investments, and with the personnel of the World Bank. Chapter I of the thesis is a general introduction to the subject. It deals with the relative importance of transportation investment in underdeveloped countries, and states the objective of the thesis. In Chapter II the objective of public transportation analysis is established, and some of the principles which are basic to all analyses of public investment are considered. In considering the principles, some problems in their applications are identified and the recommended procedures are indicated. All acceptable analyses of public transportation investments must ultimately result in some form of comparison of the costs and benefits of the proposed investment or investments. In Chapter III the methods of measuring costs and benefits are described, and deficiencies in the current methods and their applications are identified. In the cases of relatively minor deficiencies, the correct methods and applications are shown in Chapter III. Possible solutions to the major problems identified are proposed in Chapter IV. The major deficiencies noted in Chapter III are the common failure to relate a proposed transportation investment on an individual link of the system, to the system as a whole, and the failure to relate the transportation system to the economy of the country. These deficiencies will almost invariably result in the incorrect measurement of costs and benefits. In Chapter IV, methods of overcoming these deficiencies are described and evaluated. The most recent published method of conducting a comprehensive analysis which takes account of these factors is the Harvard Model, which consists of two parts: a transportation model and a macro-economic model. The difficulty of applying this approach is considered, and it is concluded that, although the Harvard Model is conceptually the best approach which has thus far been developed, it cannot be applied as a practical method of evaluation at this time. An alternative approach is suggested, based on the methodology used in a recent land transportation study of Dahomey, Africa. The analysis of traffic flows is based on the transportation portion of the Harvard Model, while the economic methodology was developed primarily by the author while engaged in the Dahomey study. The conclusions are presented in Chapter V. It is concluded that transportation investment analyses could be greatly improved, and that most of the necessary improvements are incorporated in the Harvard Model. However, the Harvard Model has not yet been applied successfully, and this will probably be the case for at least the next five to ten years. The methodology used in the Dahomey study is recommended for use as a less sophisticated, but workable alternative, which is also more appropriate to the evaluation of specific investment proposals. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

This study emphasizes the impact of family planning program components on contraceptive prevalence in less industrialized countries. Building on Lapham and Mauldin's "Program Effort and Fertility Decline" framework and policy evaluation's theory, the author developed two models to examine the impact of family planning programs on contraceptive prevalence and fertility under the constraints of socioeconomic development and demand for family planning. The study employed path analysis and multiple regression on data from the 1982 program effort study in 94 less developed countries (LDCs) by Lapham and Mauldin and 98 LDCs of the 1989 program effort study by Mauldin and Ross. The results of data analyses for all data sets are consistent for the most part. Major findings are as follows: (1) A combination of program effort and socioeconomic development best explains the variation of contraceptive prevalence. (2) Among socioeconomic variables, female literacy exerts the strongest direct and indirect influences to increase contraceptive prevalence and indirect influence to decrease total fertility rate. (3) Christianity performs a significant role in reducing contraceptive prevalence. (4) Among program effort components, availability and accessibility for fertility-control supplies and services have the most influence on contraceptive prevalence. (5) When controlling for demand for family planning, female literacy and Christianity have expected and significant relationships with contraceptive prevalence. Availability and accessibility to fertility-control supplies and services exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on contraceptive prevalence. Demand for family planning has a positive and statistically significant effect on program variables, availability, and contraceptive prevalence. (6) There is a strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. Demand for family planning, program effort, and socioeconomic development influence fertility through contraceptive prevalence. The findings of this study suggest that governments in LDCs should give priorities to increasing female education and availability of contraception to effectively reduce fertility.

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Foreign aid is a relatively new form of economic exchange between nations, yet in only a few decades it has become a persistent structural element of the modern world-system. Conventional theories of economic development view foreign aid as a "flow" of financial resources into an economy and argue that it accelerates economic growth in the less developed countries by supplementing the domestic capital resources that are available for development. Dependency theory and the world-system perspective conceive of foreign aid as a "structural" feature of the recipient economy and suggest that it retards economic growth in these countries by reproducing the structural distortion of the economy that was originally established by colonialism and by systematically limiting the ability of the peripheral state to control the development of its economy. These theories suggest contradictory findings which are tested in this dissertation with multiple regression analysis. The analyses parallel the seminal research of Bornschier et al. (1978) on foreign investment and economic growth by simultaneously estimating the effects of both short-term flows and long-term stocks of foreign aid on economic growth. Using a sample of 91 Third World countries, the effects of foreign aid on economic growth are estimated both during a period of relative expansion of the world economy (1970-1978) and during a period of relative recession (1978-1986). My findings lend some support to both theoretical perspectives but the direction of the effects are opposite to those predicted by Bornschier et al. Foreign aid is found to have short-term negative effects on economic growth during both time periods but long-term positive effects on economic growth are statistically significant only for the later time period. The findings from this research clearly suggest that the dependency and world-system perspective must modify its theoretical explanations concerning the relationship between foreign capital flows and economic development to take into account the varied uses of different types of financial resources. They also highlight the importance of recognizing that different phases of the expansion and contraction of the world economy may condition the effects of specific types of core-periphery interactions.