In recent years, the United States has seen a high demand for dam rehabilitation projects as most dam infrastructure has started to reach or exceed the expected life span of 50-70 years. Rehabilitation projects can be very expensive, however, and the funding options for dam owners are limited. To raise awareness, organizations such as ASDSO and the Virginia DCR release cost estimates every few years to encourage more investment in dam infrastructure. Unfortunately, many cost estimates have been made with limited data and outdated methodologies. This research collects a new sample of cost data for Virginia dam rehabilitation projects and uses it to assess key factors for cost estimating. Factors such as height, drainage area, hazard classification, and ownership type were used to make regression models that predict the cost of addressing Virginia's non-compliant dams. This study estimates that approximately $300 million is needed to address Virginia's 98 deficient high hazard, local government owned dams and that $122 million of that estimate is need for SWCD dams alone. / Master of Science / Dam rehabilitation refers to the repair, removal, or upgrade of an existing dam structure. Rehabilitation projects are done when dams start to exceed their intended life span (approximately 50-60 years) or when policy makers change the required safety standards. The demand for dam rehabilitation has been increasing for the past several years as more and more dams are being identified as unsafe, but the available funding for rehabilitation projects is limited and competitive to obtain for dam owners. To raise awareness, dam safety agencies release cost estimates every few years to encourage government leaders and the general public to take action. However, these estimates need to be taken with caution as they are often made with limited data availability and outdated methodologies. This research collects a new sample of cost data for Virginia dam rehabilitation projects that have occurred in the last 15 years. Dam characteristics such as height, watershed size, downstream risk potential, and ownership type were used to form equations that predict the cost of addressing Virginia's non-compliant dams. This study estimates that approximately $300 million is needed to address Virginia's 98 deficient high hazard, local government owned dams and that $122 million of that estimate is need for Virginia's Soil and Water Conservation District dams alone.

There are hundreds of existing dams within the State of Virginia, and even thousands more specifically within the United States. A large portion of these dams do not meet the current safety standard of passing the Probable Maximum Flood. Likewise, many of the dams have reached or surpassed the original design lives, and are in need of rehabilitation. A standard protocol will assist dam owners in completing a dam rehabilitation analysis. The protocol provides the methods to complete the hydrologic, hydraulic, and economic analysis. Additionally, alternative augmentation techniques are discussed including the integration of GIS applications and linear programming optimization techniques. The standard protocol and alternative techniques are applied to a case study. The case study includes a set of flood control dams located in the headwaters of the South River watershed in Augusta County, VA. The downstream impacts of the flood control dams on the city of Waynesboro are demonstrated through the hydrologic and hydraulic analysis. / Master of Science

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In South Africa a large number of dams owned by the Department of Water Affairs (DWA) need to be rehabilitated. This study investigated the decision process involved in the prioritisation of dams for rehabilitation. DWA developed a risk analysis methodology for defining the risks associated with dam safety, expressed as the combination of the probability and consequences of dam failure. These risks are evaluated usingmultiple acceptability criteria to assess risk to human life and the economic, social, socio-economic and environmental impacts of dam failure. In this study, the criteria used in the decision process to evaluate the acceptability of life safety risks were evaluated by comparing to international best practice methods, where the acceptability of risk to human life is commonly assessed as the expected number of fatalities against life safety criteria presented as FN-criteria on an FN-diagram. Damrehabilitation should reduce the probability of dam failure, thereby reducing the risk to society in terms of the expected lives lost. However, the rehabilitation works come at a cost and the level of these investments are usually large. In addition, the rehabilitation of South African government owned dams are financed by society and these financial resources are limited. Thus investments into dam rehabilitation works should be worthwhile for society. Society’s Willingness to Pay (SWTP) for safety was applied to South African dam safety to determine the acceptable level of expenditure into life safety that is required by society. Investments into improved safety levels are not always dictated by society, but could also be driven by the decision maker or owner requiring an economically optimal solution for the rehabilitation. Economic optimisation accounts for considerations additional to life safety, including economic motivations, damage costs of dam failure as well as compensation costs for lives lost. Often economic optimisation would govern the decision problem. Also, the DWA current evaluation does not take the cost of rehabilitation into account in any way. Thus, FN-criteria that primarily evaluates life safety, but also incorporates a measure of economic efficiency, were suggested in this study. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In Suid-Afrika moet ’n groot aantal dammewat deur dieDepartement vanWaterwese (DWA) besit word gerehabiliteer word. Hierdie studie het die besluitnemingsproses ondersoekwat toegepasword om damme te prioritiseer vir rehabilitasiewerke. DWA het ’n bestaande metodologie wat gebaseer is op risiko-analise. Die risikos wat verband hou met damveiligheid word deur die metode bepaal en word uitgedruk as die kombinasie van waarskynlikheid en die beraamde gevolge van damfaling. Hierdie risikosword geëvalueer teenoor verskeie kriteriawat die aanvaarbaarheid van risikos teenoor menselewens en die ekonomiese, sosiale, sosio-ekonomiese en omgewingsimpakte van damfalings assesseer. In hierdie studie word die kriteria wat gebruik word in die besluitnemingsproses om die aanvaarbaarheid van risikos teenoor menselewens te bepaal geëvalueer deur die kriteria te vergelyk met metodes wat internasionaal as beste praktyk beskou word. Internasionaal word die aanvaarbaarheid van risikos teenoor menselewens oor die algemeen as die verwagte aantal sterftes teenoor lewensveiligheidskriteria FN-kriteria op ’n FN-diagram geassesseer. Dam rehabilitasiewerke behoort die waarskynlikheid van damfaling te verminder, sodoende verminder die risiko teenoor die samelewing in terme van verwagte sterftes. Die rehabilitasiewerke vereis finansiële beleggings, en hierdie beleggings is gewoonlik groot. Verder word die rehabilitasie van Suid-Afrikaanse damme wat deur DWA besit word deur samelewing gefinansier en hierdie finasiële hulpbronne is beperk. Dus moet hierdie beleggings die moeite werd wees vir die samelewing. Die samelewing se bereidwilligheidomte betaal ("SWTP") vir veiligheid word toegepas in Suid- Afrikaanse damveiligheidomdie aanvaarbare vlak van beleggings vir ’n verbeterde veiligheid teenoor menselewens wat deur die samelewing vereis word te bepaal. Beleggings in verbeterde damveiligheidsvlakke word egter nie altyd bepaal deur die samelewing nie,maar kan ook gedryf word deur die besluitnemer of eienaar wat ’n ekonomies optimale oplossing vir die rehabilitatiesewerke vereis. Ekonomiese optimering neem oorwegings addisioneel tot lewensveiligheid in ag, insluitend ekonomiese motiverings, skade kostes as die dam faal, sowel as vergoedingskostes vir die verwagte sterftes. Ekonomiese optimering beheer dikwels die besluitnemingsprobleem. Verder neem die huidige DWA besluitnemingssproses in geen manier die kostes van rehabilitasie in ag nie. Dus word FN-kriteria wat hoofsaaklik veiligheid teenoor menselewens evalueer,maar wat ook ’n mate van ekonomiese doeltreffendheid insluit, voorgestel in hierdie studie.