This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2018 / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 82-85). / Water and Energy systems that were once considered disparate, are coupled in many ways. Generation, transmission and distribution of each system relies on the other system. The interaction becomes significantly stronger in economies dependent on desalination for their water resources. One such country is the United Arab Emirates. The water-energy nexus faces serious challenges under climate change as cooling needs and outdoor water demands rise. This thesis models the impact of climate change on the water-energy nexus in the UAE. It explores a set of climate change adaptation policy scenarios and quantifies their respective economic, water and energy savings. Hence, it provides an analytical assessment of the nexus that can inform data-driven policy making. This thesis views the nexus through a qualitative lens and a quantitative lens. The qualitative piece presents the organizational mapping and structuring of the UAE institutions across the water-energy-climate nexus. / It highlights gaps in cross-sectoral interactions that need to be overcome for a sustainable future. The second piece presented in this thesis is analytical in nature. It uses two specialized water and energy softwares called the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) and couples them together to model the nexus. The water-energy nexus model is tested for different individual and aggregate adaptation policy scenarios to assess a wide range of effects on the nexus. These scenarios are also run for six sub-regions within the UAE (Abu Dhabi, Al Ain, Western region, Dubai, Eastern region and Fujairah) to understand the underlying demand sectors driving the water-energy nexus in these sub-regions. The results of this extensive scenario analysis have informed policy recommendations for long-term planning of the water-energy nexus in the UAE. / Important findings from this study include the huge savings potential from indoor consumption reduction (up to 1200 million cubic meters of water and 60 million gigajoules of electricity per year by 2060) and the need for irrigated land regulation (saves up to 700 million cubic meters of water and 5 million gigajoules of electricity per year by 2060) in the UAE. The sub-regional analysis highlights the need for sub-regionalized policy goals that govern regions based on their demand differences. / by Iqra Nadeem. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program

This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2019 / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 79-85). / Security notification schemes hold great promise for improving both consumer cybersecurity and general network health as malware and other sources of malicious activity are becoming more prevalent on home networks. For example, botnets of Internet of Things devices engage in denial of service (DoS) attacks and ransomware holds data on personal and commercial systems hostage. Many of these threats are relatively opaque for an end user. An end user may not know that their smart device is participating in a DoS attack at all, unless they notice a protracted slowdown in network speeds. An upstream network provider like a consumer ISP has more visibility into the issue. Due to their privileged position, ISPs often have more data about the status of a malware infection, denial of service attack, or other malicious activity. This extra information can be of great benefit for the purposes of notification. For instance, an ISP may be able to notify a customer that a device on their network is being used for a DoS attackor that they see communication with a server involved in distributing ransomware. ISPs and other organizations that try and implement these schemes often run into a set of questions: How do I get the right data to power the notification? How do I ensure the user trusts the notification? Can I ensure the notification is not spoofed? Is there an optimal way to present the notification? How do I make sure a user takes the proper remedial action? This thesis presents a framework for new notification schemes to answer these questions by examining four key elements of a notification: form, delivery, and content. It also proposes multi-factor verification, a novel scheme to address trust and spoofing issues within a notification scheme. Finally, it provides a model for a new ISP-user security notification scheme within the context of the United States market and policy landscape. / by Nathaniel H. Fruchter. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2018 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 529-543). / With the increasingly unsustainable nature of industrialized and industrializing nations, new industrial processes are being explored to determine a more sustainable pathway for countries looking to boost their manufacturing presence and competitiveness. In this thesis, we present a "proactive" policy framework for India's sustainable development via the introduction of remanufacturing, at-scale, for India's textile industry using qualitative trade-off analysis that "co-optimizes" for tripartite (international, national, and sub-national) governmental-level and firm-level policies to achieve improvements within the 3 Pillars of Sustainability: namely Economic, Environmental, and Employment Sustainability. The research begins with an analysis of India's sustainable development history, its current status, and its goals for future sustainable development. / The current status and history of the Indian textile industry, and its relevant policies, were subsequently studied, analyzed, and described in detail. The thesis then introduces and analyzes the specific industrial strategy of "remanufacturing" that has the potential to be a sustainable industrial opportunity for India's textile sector. The major process, technological, environmental and occupational, sociopolitical, and economic requirements for and challenges involved in adopting textile remanufacturing at-scale are discussed. We outline the major policy interventions and instruments that international organizations, Indian national and state governments, as well as individual firms can take to enable the introduction of remanufacturing in the textile industry, aligned with the 3 Pillars of Sustainability. / The thesis concludes by providing a set of "Roadmaps" for government-level and firm-level policies for textile remanufacturing under each Pillar, with the final one being a "Co-Optimized" Roadmap that considers the benefits and tradeoffs, of the policies identified, for all 3 Pillars, and which details a set of policies that, if implemented, has the possibility to set India on a more sustainable industrial pathway. / by Priyanka M. Chatterjee. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 72-76). / Recent developments in machine learning (ML) have persuaded researchers that automated technologies without human intervention may transform occupations across the economy. My research seeks to assess how and where ML will affect the workforce. I extend the ideas of Brynjolfsson, Mitchell, and Rock (2018), who assess each task in the economy for its Suitability for Machine Learning (SML). This paper builds on their summary statistics to provide a more detailed analysis of where ML is likely to have its greatest impact in the economy. Combining their technological suitability data with labor market data, this paper suggests a policy model for better planning labor mobility and allocation of human resources in the face of upcoming technological changes. / by Hazal Mine Kansu. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 66-70). / Several authors argue that net metering schemes (NEM), typically implemented to incentivize investment on distributed energy resources (DER), could be regressive, given that DER adopters in the U.S. are wealthier on average than non-adopters and due to the possibility that DER owners shift certain costs onto passive customers. By using a dataset containing close to 100,000 customers' half-hourly load data and income quintiles from Chicago, IL, we simulate the operation of residential solar and behind-the-meter battery systems under 20%, 45% and 70% adoption levels and calculate both resulting bills for every client in the dataset, as well as cost shifts arising from the combination of NEM and the allocation of network and policy costs (i.e., residual costs) through volumetric charges (i.e., in $/kWh). Additionally, we consider different tariff designs. Results show that the combination of NEM schemes and recovery of residual costs through volumetric charges may cause important cost shifting effects from DER adopters onto non-adopters, rising equity and fairness concerns. Firstly, under NEM schemes, we calculate that adopter customers may, on average, obtain bill reductions of 71% when installing solar or solar plus storage, whereas non-adopters can see their bills increased 18% in high DER penetration scenarios (i.e., 45% penetration). Moreover, under the same NEM schemes, 45% adoption and considering solar plus storage adoption alone, we calculate that customers from the two lowest income quintiles may suffer bill increases in the 16-19% range on average, while removing NEM schemes reduces these increases to the 11-12% range. / by Andrés Inzunza Besio. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2019 / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 109-116). / Plans for a decarbonized power system call for a significant increase in generation from variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, i.e. wind and solar. Yet, the intermittency of these resources introduces new challenges in operating the grid, including the need for sufficient operating flexibility to manage variations in VRE generation and load, while minimizing emissions and cost impacts. Long duration energy storage (LDES) has been suggested as an enabling technology for realizing high VRE penetrations in future grids because of its potential to flexibly time-shift VRE generation to match demand. However, the current literature lacks a broad assessment of the cost and performance requirements necessary for LDES technology to enable low- or zero-carbon power systems, the effect of various policy environments on those requirements, and an evaluation of currently existing LDES technologies and their potential to achieve sufficient cost and performance goals. / This work seeks to fill that gap. Using a power system capacity planning model with hourly dispatch and operating constraints for a full year in ²045, multiple scenarios are analyzed with differing climate policies, starting with a no policy base scenario and including region-wide carbon taxes, renewable energy requirements to target wind and solar generation, and clean energy standards to target zero- or low-emitting technologies. Currently existing LDES technologies, like power-to-gas, thermal energy storage, flow batteries, and others, are also evaluated and their potential future cost and performance are compared to the model results to identify which LDES technologies are likely to be viable contributors to decarbonizing the electricity sector. As a result, this research identifies key characteristics for LDES technology development and reinforces the role of policy in achieving decarbonized electricity systems. / Other findings include an evaluation of the role that existing LDES technologies may play in future decarbonized systems and the generation mix tradeoffs between LDES, lithium-ion batteries, and firm generation resources. / by Aurora N. C. Edington. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 113-120). / Countries around the world have pledged to decarbonize their electricity sector in order to address climate change. In this thesis we investigate the role of pumped hydro storage (PHS) in decarbonizing power generation in combination with a high penetration of low-carbon energy sources. PHS is the oldest storage technology and constitutes of 95 percent of storage capacity worldwide. We provide a technical and historical overview of PHS while noting assumptions about locational availability and environmental concerns that have progressed over the last several decades. This thesis uses a high PHS capacity country, Spain, as its case study First, this thesis establishes how PHS operates in a competitive wholesale market, confirming its use of daily arbitrage. Secondly, it shows the degree to which PHS effects the operation of other technology like nuclear, wind, and solar PV and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. / This is incredibly important as further buildouts of renewables to meet decarbonization goals will result in high levels of curtailment. PHS can provide value by shifting curtailed energy to low renewable production periods and reducing the need for fossil fuel generation. This value is characterized by a total system cost analysis of meeting in 2030 demand by adding marginal PHS under alternative capacity scenarios. This thesis calculates the investment and operational costs of said marginal PHS. Furthermore, it asks whether these marginal PHS produce the lowest system cost, or whether investments in alternatives--such as solar PV or wind produces a lower system cost. Ultimately, this thesis shows that at expanded penetrations of wind and solar PV, and a firm baseload low-carbon resource, PHS is a lower system cost alternative to further reducing GHG emissions than building out additional renewables. / If countries are to expand renewable capacity and they have the ability to expand PHS capabilities they should. To encourage this investment in competitive restructured markets, policy needs to allow PHS to operate within all sectors of electricity including generation, transmission, and distribution. / by Anthony Fratto Oyler. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 49-53). / India's soaring population elicits increased demand for construction materials and waste generation. Incumbent materials such as the fired clay brick demand high energy manufacturing processes and pose serious environmental and human health hazards. Separately, the landfilling and illegal disposal of industrial waste is unsustainable and growing rapidly along with population. To address both of these issues, we have developed a brick composed of 90% industrial waste that is superior to a traditional fired clay brick in environmental impact and comparable in cost while meeting the physical properties that structural code mandates. By transforming industrial waste into sustainable building materials through alkali-activation, we propose a solution to help alleviate the environmental, ecological, and human health impacts of India's housing crisis. Surge in material use leads not only to environmental impact from processing, manufacturing, and transportation, but also imposes an ecological burden via extraction of raw materials. This ecological deterioration can be accounted for by imputing values for the unmarketed values of ecosystem services--benefits to humans derived from working ecosystems--and captured in the material's price. This thesis looks at the life cycle impact of the novel alkali-activated masonry and traditional building materials, and also conducts an ecosystem service valuation to shed light on hidden ecological costs associated with material extraction. In concert with the technical analysis, this thesis proposes a framework to streamline the acknowledgment of environmental services into policy which could assist in ousting incumbent materials and the environmental harm associated with their development. Dormant potential lying in landfills can become an active solution to the region's population problem. / by Joshua E. Dennison. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 159-171). / The past decade has seen an unprecedented surge of climate change-driven extreme weather events that have wrought over $800 billion in damage and taken more than 5,200 lives across the United States -- a trend that appears poised to intensify. At the same time, the need for a large-scale effort to decarbonize the U.S. electric power system has become clear, along with the growing climate risks and impacts that any such effort will face. This thesis argues that the principles of resilience can play a valuable role by enabling the decarbonization of the U.S. electric system, in the face of the escalating risks and impacts of climate-driven extreme weather. By emphasizing targeted hardening, proactive planning, graceful failure, and effective recoveries in the design, operation, and oversight of electric systems in the United States, we can both protect against growing climate risks and catalyze decarbonization efforts -- / an integrated process we call resilient decarbonization. This work seeks to inform present and future resilient decarbonization efforts by examining the lessons of the past decade of extreme weather, and its impact on electric systems in the United States. To do so, we consider three cases: Hurricane Maria, which struck Puerto Rico in 2017, causing the world's second-largest blackout; the 2017-2019 Northern California wildfire seasons, which sent the nation's largest investor-owned-utility into bankruptcy and remain the most devastating on record; and Superstorm Sandy, which served as a wakeup call for the New York/New Jersey area when it made a sudden left turn towards the region in 2012. We find that resilient decarbonization, while a challenging process to set into motion, does in fact meet its dual mission of protecting electric systems against growing climate risks, while enabling their decarbonization. / We also examine the ways in which electric system institutions take climate risks into account, the strengths and weaknesses of resilience-based measures for electric systems, and overarching questions about the role of electricity and electric utilities in American society today. / by .Sohum Pawar / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 109-122). / The cost of photovoltaic systems has declined more rapidly than other electricity production technologies, while nuclear plant costs have risen. Changing costs have contributed to global energy transitions in the past, and our capacity to decarbonize the electricity sector will depend on the cost of low-carbon electricity production technologies like photovoltaic and nuclear energy. Understanding the mechanisms behind historical cost evolution and potential future improvement can inform the design of energy technologies and the policies that advance them. This thesis investigates historical barriers and future opportunities for cost reduction in solar and nuclear power. By developing innovative mathematical and conceptual models, we address the following questions: (1) How can "plug-and-play" design improve costs in photovoltaic systems? (2) What were the sources of cost escalation and overruns in nuclear power plant construction? We address these questions in chapters 2 and 3. / Chapter 2 assesses the potential for plug-and-play designs to reduce non-module costs in photovoltaic systems. This work advances use of the design structure matrix for studying cost change in energy technologies by evaluating design factors across multiple systems. We identify the cost components with significant latent potential for improvement--profit, installation labor, overhead, electrical balance of system, and customer acquisition--and show that plug-and-play designs have advantageous effects on their constituent parts. A conventional small-scale photovoltaic project contains nearly 600 interactions across 30 or more system elements; we show that plug-and-play designs can reduce the number of interactions by two-thirds and elements by half. / Several mechanisms are important to the cost change potential of plug-and-play technology: eliminating various project tasks or shifting their responsibility to the consumer removes the associated overhead and profit of installation firms; pre-assembly of system components and standardization of project tasks eliminates installation labor costs; reduction and simplification of BOS electrical components lowers equipment costs; and standardization of system design precludes time-intensive tasks involved in customer acquisition. We compare the advantages of prevailing plug-and-play designs and consider future opportunities for technological innovation and policy advancement. Chapter 3 examines the engineering assumptions underlying many nuclear cost models using historical cost data from the U.S. nuclear industry. We show that expectations for technological improvement may have underestimated factors external to hardware design. / By mapping separate cost trajectories for standard plant designs, we find that nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) plants have been more expensive than first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plants, counter to traditional expectations. Indirect costs external to technological design were responsible for most of the cost rise observed between 1976 and 1987. Decomposition of cost changes in the reactor containment building shows that while safety was a significant factor driving cost increases, non-safety factors were comparably influential. Comparing productivity data from recent U.S. plant construction to industry expectations, we find that material deployment rates are up to thirteen times slower than cost estimating guidelines suggest. We discuss which technologies could potentially lower the impact of external, previously cost-increasing factors, with the support of regulatory changes and R&D. / by Philip Eash-Gates. / S.M. in Technology and Policy / S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society